The first week of NBA is in the books, and second week of games should bring the same energy. Monday's nine-game slate is anchored by two national TV matchups: Washington Wizards vs. Brooklyn Nets and Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Clippers.
Our NBA analysts are eyeing bets in the latter matchup and more on Monday night. You can find their analysis and picks for tonight below.
NBA Odds & Picks
New Orleans Pelicans vs. MinnesotaTimberwolves
Matt Moore: The early tickets and money have poured in on this game and it still hasn't moved; our PRO system is tracking sharp bets on New Orleans.
I'm sorry, it's square, but I still have to go with Minnesota. It's fine to say that this is a buy-low spot on the Pelicans, but is it? Do we really think this game will be within two possessions?
The Pelicans rank 27th in halfocurt offense and 21st in halfcourt defense. The Wolves' halfcourt offense is just as bad so far, but that's likely to improve. Without Zion Williamson, the Pelicans are just a mess — they're turnover prone, and that plays right into the Wolves' strengths.
Red hot Wolves, stink fest Pels, and plus, this is a duplex game — the Wolves and Pels played Saturday and Minnesota won. Typically when teams play twice in a short span, they split.
However, I just don't think the models are properly rating both teams yet. This is free-throw zone. I'll lay the -5.5.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. L.A. Clippers
Moore: The Clippers have gotten a lot of respect in the market for an 0-2 team. Now, they've faced good competition — the undefeated Warriors and the very impressive Grizzlies — however, they were home favorites to Memphis Saturday and lost outright.
More than anything, the models seem to be underrating the Blazers, and as captain of the "Underrating the Blazers" Club, I'm insulted at them for trying to outdo me.
Portland has the No. 1 halfcourt offense in this early season. The Clippers rank fourth, which is obviously still great, but Portland's better in halfcourt offense and halfcourt defense so far in this extremely early "why are you using stats a t this point" stretch of the season.
More than anything, the Blazers' face plant in their home opener vs. the chaos generating Kings threw off the market here. The Clippers have not proven they can beat teams expected to be among the top-seven playoff teams. The Blazers are such a team, and yet the Clippers are favored.
The Blazers rank second in 3-point makes per 100 possessions so far. That adds to their ability to make up ground. Grab the points and sprinkle something on the moneyline.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. L.A. Clippers
Raheem Palmer: This total has gotten steamed down from 234, but I’m not buying it. The Clippers and Trail Blazers are among the league’s worst defenses with the Clippers giving up 117.2 points per 100 possessions and the Blazers giving up 116.4 points per 100 possessions, 26th and 23rd among all NBA teams.
These two teams can also light up the scoreboard — the Blazers rank first in Offensive Rating (126.1) in their non garbage time minutes while the Clippers are sixth (114.1). These two teams are also top 10 in 3-point attempts with the Blazers ranking seventh in field goal percentage.
The Clippers struggle to defend the rim where they’re opponents to shoot 70% while the Blazers rank seventh in field goal percentage at the rim (71.2%). The Clippers are also dead last in field goal percentage from behind the arc (44.8%) an area where the Blazers thrive, ranking fifth among NBA teams.
When you consider that the Blazers play at the fifth-fastest Pace in the league, this feels like a good recipe for an over. I’ll take the over 230.5 and would bet this up to 233.
