Tuesday's slate is short with just three games in total, but it's packed with starts on the national TV schedule.
LeBron James makes his annual return to Cleveland in the early game between the Lakers and Cavaliers (7 p.m. ET). In the late game, the Luka Doncic will go head to head Nikola Jokic when the Mavericks and Nuggets (10 p.m. ET) meet in Denver.
Our best bets for Tuesday feature a case for both sides of the spread in the late game, and a player prop bet in the under-the-radar matchup in Miami.
Check out tonight's expert picks and predictions from our NBA analysts below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Detroit Pistons vs. Miami Heat
Munaf Manji: Killian Hayes has revived his career this season for the Pistons, and they have needed him in every way in the absence of Cade Cunningham.
Hayes has been playing well for the Pistons, especially over the last five games. In fact, Hayes is averaging 31.8 minutes per game along with 15.8 points per game and more importantly 7.4 assists per game. He has dished out six or more assists in five straight games for the Pistons and gone over this line in nine out of the last 10.
So far this season, the Miami Heat are allowing 16.1 assists per game which ranks 21st in the entire league. However, over the last seven days, the Heat are allowing opposing point guards to average 9.6 assists per game.
The Pistons have the rest advantage tonight and I believe Hayes will continue to shine against the Heat’s perimeter defense. I love this prop up to 6.5 assists.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: I like the Denver Nuggets in this spot tonight. The Mavericks are coming off a statement game against the Suns — a playoff rematch from last season in which the Mavericks laid a Game 7 shellacking on the Suns to advance to the Western Conference Finals.
The Mavericks managed a win last night without overplaying their key contributors. In fact, the only person who played more than 30 minutes was shooting guard Josh Green at 31 minutes.
I’m picking the Nuggets here based on the recent home-road splits for each team. The Mavericks like to get up for big games. You could argue that tonight qualifies since it’s a marquee game on TNT and considering Denver beat Dallas last month without Nikola Jokic. However, the Mavericks are 3-7 against the spread on the road this season and 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.
The Nuggets, meanwhile, are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven home games. Give me a rested Nuggets squad at home against the Mavericks on a back to back. I would take them down to -5.5
Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets
Matt Moore: I mentioned this on the latest episode of the Buckets podcast (you can watch the full clip here), but the vibes are … not great in Denver after two losses to the Hawks and Pelicans.
There are questions about the rotation with a lot of guys who are handpicked by the new front office. There are questions about their defense not being able to get stops despite adding Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown. The counter here is, this is usually a spot where everyone thinks the Nuggets are tipping and then they smash a good team and look awesome in the process.
This opened at 4.5, so it seems to be moving in the Nuggets’ direction. I have this number closer to a pick’em and that puts value on the Mavericks.
One more note: I’d wait to make sure the Mavs are playing everyone because they traveled overnight from Dallas to Denver. Still, I bet the Mavericks to cover at +5 (0.5 units) and BetMGM has the best line at +5.5. I’ve also got them +170 on the moneyline (.25 units).
