We've got a busy night ahead in the Association with 11 games on the NBA schedule for Wednesday night. On national TV we'll see the stars going at it on ESPN: Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors face Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks while Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets go head-to-head with Donovan Mitchell and the Utah Jazz.
The games our analysts are eyeing are off the radar for the casual viewer, but feature a few of the of the most exciting guards in the NBA (depending on the status of one). You can check out their analysis for those two matchups and their best bets for Wednesday night below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Detroit Pistons vs. Charlotte Hornets
Raheem Palmer: The Hornets have been boasted one of the league's worst defenses all season, allowing 114.1 points per 100 possessions, 26th among NBA teams. However, over the past two weeks that number has improved slightly (110.6).
The biggest change is the decline of their offense, which went from second in Offense Rating, scoring 113.2 points per 100 possessions to scoring 110.4 points per 100 possessions. While the Hornets have had players in the health and safety protocols, it's no a surprise we've seen this team go under their total in five out of their last six games.
For much of this season, the Hornets were an over team but it appears the market has caught up them recently and I'm here to take full advantage against a Pistons team that has the worst offense in the league, scoring just 101.0 points per 100 possessions in their non garbage time minutes. This total has moved 3.5 points but there appears to be some market resistance.
My model makes this game 225 and with the Pistons still missing Jerami Grant, Isaiah Stewart, Corey Joseph and Kelly Olynyk, I'm not seeing how this offense improves from it's recent output.
The Pistons are 16th in Defensive Rating (110.6) over the past two weeks and they are sixth in Transition Pts+/Possession (1.7), according to Cleaning the Glass, an area where the Hornets thrive. I think this could be a lower scoring game than the market is anticipating, so I'll play the under here.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Sacramento Kings
Kenny Ducey: This line between the Hawks and Kings has been all over the place. Sacramento opened up as the favorite here before the Hawks were bet down to -1.5 at some sportsbooks.
There's some uncertainty surrounding Trae Young, who has been amazing on offense for Atlanta over the past four games and who has singlehandedly kept the Hawks in games, With that being said, we have to address this defense.
Since Young’s return, the Hawks own the league’s second-worst defense with 130.4 points allowed per 100 possessions. In his first game back, Atlanta had its worst defensive performance of the season against Chicago, and last time out in Portland the Hawks topped that with a 137.4 defensive rating. This team can’t stop anyone at the moment, and I’m inclined to believe in this Kings offense, which has been perfectly average this season.
The Kings have not been good against the spread this year, covering in 43.6% of games, but at home they’ve had a 45.5% cover rate and as the home favorite they’re at 50%.
I just think too much can go wrong here for Atlanta. Even with Young, this defense should be bad, and without him it will be missing its best offensive weapon along with some other big contributors like Bogdan Bogdanovic and John Collins. On the other side of the coin, the Kings may be getting back both of their injured bigs in Terence Davis and Richaun Holmes, which would tip the scales further towards them.
