NBA Opening Week is behind us, but tonight's busy Monday slate is bursting with possibility. Tonight's schedule features eight games, with some really fun matchups, including a matchup out west between the Nuggets and Trail Blazers on NBA TV.
Our NBA analysts are focused on three other games on the slate and see value on props and the moneyline on a road favorite. The dive into their analysis and best bets for Monday night below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat
Joe Dellera: Scottie Barnes suffered a fairly significant ankle injury against the Miami Heat on Saturday and although he’s officially listed as questionable, he’s expected to miss “some time” per Raptors’ head coach Nick Nurse.
While the player that slides into the starting lineup and sees an increase in playing time is Precious Achiuwa, the starter that should benefit the most is Pascal Siakam. Due to Barnes’ questionable tag we are getting a great line on this assists prop for Siakam.
Siakam sees his stats and usage spike without Barnes on the floor. In five games without him last season, Siakam averaged 25.8 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 8.8 assists per game and he just recorded 23/8/9 against Miami on Saturday when Barnes exited after just 13 minutes.
I think this line is criminally low considering he has cleared 4.5 in 20 of his last 30 games regardless of Barnes’ status including a 6.8 assists average vs. Miami between this season and last with totals of 10, 6, 4, 5, and 9.
I am going to escalate this and I prefer to pay the juice on the base line of -160 and then grab alternates at 7+ (+250 Bet365) and 10+ (+1125) with a sprinkle on a built out triple double at (+2000). FanDuel also has these wagers but at 8+ (+290) and 10 (+700) but there’s obviously less value there.
Utah Jazz vs. Houston Rockets
Sam McQuillan: A matchup between two of the worst projected teams in the league is the perfect opportunity to bet on a volume scoring blue chipper's points prop.
Jalen Green is coming off the second-worst shooting performance in his last 12 games, scoring 22 points on 31% shooting against the Bucks. The last time he shot so bad, he followed it up with 41 points in his next game.
I expect a similar comeback performance against a Jazz team that gave up 28 points to CJ McCollum in overtime last night and 30 to Anthony Edwards the game before.
Utah’s backcourt, Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson rank 54th and 112th in Defensive Ratings among starters this year. And any other player the Jazz might have stuck on Green last year, is playing on another team this season.
I expect their porous permitter defense to be even worse on a back-to-back and the third game of a road trip. Monday night should be the Jalen Green show.
Utah Jazz vs. Houston Rockets
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: The Utah Jazz play the Rockets in Houston, in what everyone in preseason thought would be a battle of the basement.
Instead, the Jazz are 3-0 straight up and against the spread to start the season. The Rockets are right where we expected: kind of fun, but not very good. As tempted as a I am by the Jazz to make it a 4-0 start to the season, I’m looking at the total instead.
Both Houston and Utah are middle-of-the-road in Pace, at 12th and 14th, respectively. And yet their game total is sitting at 232.
The reason for such a high total is likely because of Houston’s horrendous defense this year. They are last in the league in Defensive Rating (120.8), but the flip side of that coin, is their terrible offensive, which ranks 20th in Offensive Rating (108.4) according to NBA.com.
Utah, meanwhile, ranks sixth in Offense (115.6), but 10th in Defense (107.1). However, we still haven’t seen the Jazz play a bad team this season. So far, they’ve defeated the Nuggets, the Timberwolves, and the Pelicans in OT last night. I think we could see a low-effort spot for the Jazz and a game in which their offensive effort wanes.
The total has also seen some big money on the under and was bet down from the opening total of 233, according to the Action PRO Report. The under is getting 77% of the money, but only 41% of bets.
I like the under, but only down to 231 as I don’t trust the Rockets’ poor defense.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Chris Baker: The Grizzlies don’t deserve this much respect going up against a much more talented Nets team. Memphis currently ranks 28th in adjusted net rating while Brooklyn is 15th.
Brooklyn has played the most difficult schedule of opposing defenses so far but they should be able to put up points against this Memphis defense that ranks 26th in points per 100 possessions despite playing a relatively easy schedule thus far. Brooklyn has struggled on offense thus far but they’ve played the toughest schedule of opposing defenses this year.
New Orleans and Toronto are some of the only teams who actually have the defensive length and talent to matchup with Kevin Durant. The Grizzlies defensive talent is completely lacking with no Dillon Brooks, Zaire Williams, and Jaren Jackson Jr. in their lineup.
The Nets should be able to get whatever shot they want on offense with Ja Morant on Kyrie and guys like Santi Aldama, David Roddy, and Desmond Bane on KD. I also think that Ben Simmons has the length and defensive IQ to disrupt Ja Morant’s rhythm.
The Nets also come into this game off of two days rest while Memphis just got blown out by 40 on the road vs Dallas on Saturday night. Expect Brooklyn to play well with extra rest and preparation and get the win on the road vs an injury-riddled Memphis team.
