Well hello again, Friday.
Big night ahead in the NBA with nine games and a few must-see matchups on the slate, including Golden State Warriors vs. Chicago Bulls (7:30 p.m. ET) and Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies (10 p.m. ET) on ESPN.
As usual, our NBA analysts are looking beyond the biggest games and eyeing four games in total, which includes two props, a spread bet and a moneyline play.
Check out the analysis from our experts and their best bets for Friday night below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Toronto Raptors vs. Detroit Pistons
Matt Moore: Any Raptors fan will tell you why you should bet Detroit here. Since being fired by the Raptors after taking them to the playoffs six straight seasons, Casey has made sure to remind his old team of the good times. Casey is 7-3, straight up and ATS, vs. the Raptors with Detroit.
In the NBA regular season, there are two significant edges, since rest is baked into the line: injuries and motivation. Scottie Barnes and Gary Trent Jr. are both questionable for this matchup, so there's a little bit of the injuries. But the motivational factor matters more here; Casey's teams get up for this matchup.
I would leave it be if my numbers showed a clear edge towards the Raptors. But even at full strength, my matchup projection based on halfcourt and transition data has this closer to Pistons +2. Even on my more conservative power rating projection, I only make it 7.5 before the Barnes injury.
I'll grab the points and sprinkle a touch on the ML in round robinparlays as well.
Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Kenny Ducey: The discount of the night could be in Philly, where Tyrese Maxey is getting set to take on a Celtics defense that is missing Marcus Smart. Dennis Schroder and his 111.3 defensive rating will step in to fill the void, and that should free up Maxey to have a great night in what I believe will be a winning effort for Philly.
What you know you’re getting with Maxey is volume. After the first 10 games of the season, when the second-year guard out of Kentucky was trying to find his footing in this offense, he’s been a focal point with 14.6 field goal attempts per game. With that’s come 39.8% shooting from deep in that span along with a whopping 17.6 points on average in 34.6 minutes.
Maxey has been in and out of the lineup since mid-December, and after going just 4-for-13 from the field against Charlotte on Wednesday for 10 points, his number is depressed and offers us a great opportunity to attack.
Maxey was coming off a four-game absence and was a bit rusty on offense, but now that he’s back into the swing of things and facing a significantly worse defender than Smart, I think he should be able to get himself going again.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat
Brandon Anderson: Don't look now, but Miami has done it again. The Heat have turned yet another no-name guy into a star role player for the team. This has been Miami's trademark over the past few years, and with Bam Adebayo still out, the unheralded Omer Yurtseven has really come through as the starting center for a team that's quietly moved all the way to the East No. 3 seed.
It wasn't always this way. Yurtseven was a top-75 RSCI recruit out of high school, but he was a relative bust at North Carolina State before transferring to Georgetown and then going undrafted. Still, the Turk has worked hard to refine has game and he's blossomed into a reliable rotation guy in Miami.
Yurtseven is especially strong on the glass. He's had double-digit rebounds in 14 straight games for the Heat, and that number has gone up even more lately. While starting the last eight games, Yurtseven is at 14.6 rebounds per game, including an impressive 4.0 offensive boards per game helping to buoy the Heat attack.
This line has been far too slow to adjust, and Yurtseven rebounding overs have been hitting for weeks already. This is also a spot where you can play an alternate over if you like. Yurtseven has recorded at least 14 rebounds in six of these eight starts, and you can play him to have 14-plus boards at +230 at FanDuel. You can also play Yurtseven to record a double-double at PointsBet for +100 if you prefer that route; he's done that in six of eight starts too.
It's time to pay the big man some respect. He's certainly earned his due. I'll play the over 10.5 boards to -150 and will probably sprinkle a bit of my bet on that alternate over at +230 too.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Raheem Palmer: The Memphis Grizzlies are very reminiscent of the 2011 Oklahoma City Thunder, a team with overwhelming talent on the verge of a breakthrough. Winners of 11 straight games and 16 out of their last 19, there’s not many people willing to step in front of this train.
I am, however as the Grizzlies have had a brutal schedule recently and they’ll be playing their third game in four nights, just one night after their comeback win against the MinnesotaTimberwolves. Although the Grizzlies are one of the deepest teams in the league with no one playing over 32 minutes, at some point we’ll see this team come down to earth.
Over the past 11 games, they’re first in Net Rating, scoring 116.5 points per 100 possessions and given up just 104.8 second among NBA teams. Well the Mavericks aren’t too far behind during this same stretch as they’re fourth in Net Rating behind an Offensive Rating of 111.2 and a Defensive Rating of 103.9, which ranks first among NBA teams.
They had their six game winning streak snapped with an 85-108 loss to the Knicks in a game they shot just 8-of-37 (21.6%) from behind the arc, well below the 38.3% they’d been shooting in the last eight games. The Grizzlies are 17th in opponent 3-point field goal frequency (37.6%) and 28th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage (37%) so expect the Mavs, who shoot the seventh-highest frequency of 3s (39.7%), to return to form here.
The Mavs have the better half court offense and they’re fourth in transition defense an area where the Grizzlies thrive at. I love this spot for the Mavericks and if you follow me on twitter, you’ll know that it’s a spot I’ve been targeting all week.
The Mavs have won 6 in a row and 7 out of their last 8. Could potentially have a 7 game win steak headed into Friday. The Grizzlies have won 9 in a row with Gs and Min pending. Two of the hottest teams in the league. Excited for that matchup.
— raheem palmer (@djrtodaizza) January 12, 2022
Nonetheless, it’s no surprise to see sharp money take the Mavericks at +4, +3.5 and +3 pushing this line down to where it currently sits at +2.5. I’m going to be more aggressive and play the Mavericks moneyline — I bet it at +120, but they are still available at +115.
