We're ending the week with another busy Friday night slate in the NBA. Last week we saw two big upsets play out on Friday and with several sizable underdogs in action, one of our analysts is betting on another big upset playing out tonight.
Overall, our crew is making four bets across three games, including two props, one spread bet and one bet on a moneyline. You can read their analysis on the games and check out their best bets for Friday night below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Toronto Raptors vs. WashingtonWizards
Raheem Palmer: The Washington Wizards and Toronto Raptors are two teams who are headed in completely different directions. The Raptors have lost four of their past five games while the Wizards have won four of their past six; the Wiz were a missed Kyle Kuzma 3-pointer away from completing a fourth-quarter comeback against the Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday night.
With the Nets assistant coach knocking the ball off Kuzma on Wednesday night in crunch time, motivation will be there for the Wizards to bounce back in this spot. Motivation, aside, the Wizards are healthy for the first time this season with no players on the injury list and this offense has been rolling over the past two weeks, scoring 117.1 points per 100 possessions — sixth among NBA teams.
The Raptors, on the other hand, have struggled offensively, scoring just 109.8 points per 100 possessions — 26th among NBA teams over the past two weeks. The Wizards are first in field goal percentage at the rim (70.6%) facing a Raptors team which is 24th in opponent field goal percentage at the rim (65.8%). With the better half court offense and the ability to stop the Raptors in transition, this line feels misplaced.
The Nets with James Harden and Kyrie Irving were laying -1 on the road against Washington, when you account for home field advantage, the Wizards should be more than a PK at home against this Raptors team which struggles to score in the half court.
Brooklyn Nets vs. San Antonio Spurs
Joe Dellera: The Spurs take on the Nets in what should be a high scoring affair. These two teams last played an overtime thriller on Jan. 9 and the Nets edged out the Spurs 121-119. In that game Dejounte Murray absolutely balled out, he nearly logged a triple double with 19 points, nine rebounds, and 12 assists. While the Spurs were without Derrick White for that contest, White is a solid shooter and might actually help with Murray’s assist numbers.
The Nets are a bottom tier defense, despite what their baseline defensive metrics might say, as they rank 17th in Adjusted Defensive Rating. Kevin Durant’s absence makes this defense even worse considering he provided length to defend the paint and secure rebounds. Moreover, both the Spurs and the Nets play at two of the fastest Paces in the league, fourth and ninth respectively.
This is an opportunity for Murray to rack up counting stats, and I like his rebounds and assists combo line to go over 16.5, a number he has cleared in six of his past 10 games. I’ll also sprinkle a bit on his odds to record triple double (they are even better at +650 on BetRivers).
Detroit Pistons vs. UtahJazz
Brandon Anderson: The Pistons are really bad. The Jazz are pretty good. That's really all the logic we should need to know that Utah should win this game.
But for some weird reason, that logic simply hasn't held up with Jazz games this season. Utah just keeps losing to really bad teams.
The first time the Jazz were a double-digit favorite this season, they beat the Thunder comfortably. But the next time was in Orlando and the lowly Magic got the job done as 11-point dogs, a +425 moneyline winner. Three more times in November, the Jazz lost outright as double-digit favorites: Pacers +400, Grizzlies +420, and Pelicans +592.
Things were better for Utah in December, where the Jazz mostly took care of business as double-digit favorites, going 5-1 straight up in such games. But the problem has reared its ugly head again in January, with Utah 0-2 as double-digit favorites with losses to the Rockets (+750) and these very Pistons (+460) just 11 days ago.
For the season, Utah is just 10-7 outright as a double-digit favorite. For comparison, the entire rest of the NBA is 64-9 outright as double-digit favorites. Call it team chemistry issues, adrenaline letdown, whatever you want — for whatever reason, the Jazz just continue to wildly underperform against the dregs of the NBA.
At this point, that makes this an auto bet at +750. Double-digit underdog moneylines against the Jazz this season have an absurd 152.5% return on investment this season. If you just blindly bet $100 against Utah every time the books make it a huge favorite, you'd be up $2,592 already — and we're only halfway through the season.
There's not much basketball analysis here. Hopefully Killian Hayes sits out, and we love that Kelly Olynyk is back. But there's really no basketball reason the Pistons should beat the Jazz or even get close, and maybe they'll lose by 25. But maybe they won't. And the numbers say we have to find out.
