The NBA season continues on Tuesday with a packed slate of 10 games on tap. Our Action Network NBA analysts have best bets for you on two of the marquee matchups as the Phoenix Suns face the Philadelphia 76ers and the Milwaukee Bucks battle on the road against Los Angeles Lakers.
Continue reading below for a take on why you should back each side of the Suns-76ers game and where the value lies on the spread between the Bucks and Lakers.
NBA Odds & Picks
Phoenix Suns vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Raheem Palmer: The Phoenix Suns are the best team in the NBA at 43-10 and rank second in Offensive Rating by scoring 115.1 points per 100 possessions in their non garbage-time minutes, according to Cleaning the Glass.
However, their defense has been slipping recently. Over the past two weeks, they’re allowing a whopping 112.8 points per 100 possessions in their non garbage time minutes — 14th among NBA teams. They had a similar drop off in defensive performance last February, and it’s not a surprise to see a team as good as the Suns slip off as we get the All-Star break. Offensive performance tends to improve as the season goes on, and we’re seeing that all across the board.
Fortunately for the Suns, they are scoring 123.4 points per 100 possessions over the last two weeks — first among NBA teams. Devin Booker and Chris Paul have been downright dominant, and it’s tough to imagine this 76ers team slowing them down.
The 76ers have been playing well behind Joel Embiid’s MVP caliber season however, I think they’re a bit overmatched here. The Suns have a huge edge in transition where the 76ers rank 23rd in transition points per possession, and the 76ers struggle to defend the midrange where Booker and Paul thrive at.
The Suns have defeated the 76ers four straight times with all of final scores going over 125. I don’t expect that to change here. This should be a higher scoring game in which the Suns win. I’ll back the Suns +1 and the over 217.
Phoenix Suns vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Kenny Ducey: The Phoenix Suns may be a wagon, but that wagon is slowing and getting ready to pull over to refuel. In the last 10 games, Phoenix has gone 5-5 against the spread, and in the last two weeks, its defense has fallen outside the top 10 all the way to 15th, allowing 113.1 points per 100 possessions.
The strength of the Suns was never defending inside, either, ranking in the bottom 10 of field goal percentage allowed in the paint. Not much has changed on that front in the last two weeks, either, considering they are yielding 45.2% shooting in that zone.
With this, I think the Sixers are in a good spot. It’s certainly possible the Suns rest some players on the second night of a back-to-back, but even if they’re at full strength, they’re still 3-4 ATS in these spots. Joel Embiid should have his way inside against a defense which has struggled to defend opposing bigs all year long, and that’s especially true given his current form and his ability to attack stronger front court units than this.
The Sixers are one of the league’s hottest teams, doing exceptional work on both ends, and that shouldn’t change here. I'd play them to -3.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Roberto Arguello: The Lakers haven't lived up to expectations as they have really struggled against the best teams in the NBA this season. Since they beat the Mavericks on December 15th, the Lakers have just one win over a team currently in the top six of either conference’s standings – a win over the floundering Jazz who have lost 11 of their last 16 games.
Jrue Holiday will play a key role in pressuring the Lakers’ ball-handlers when LeBron James isn’t at the point. If the Lakers let Russell Westbrook run the offense (which they have been doing less frequently recently) against Holiday, it could create opportunities for the Bucks to get out in transition after turnovers or bad misses.
Bobby Portis will also play a key role as Milwaukee doesn’t have any other bigs (besides Giannis Antetokounmpo) it can rely on for long stretches of time against the likes of Anthony Davis.
The Lakers should have a big advantage with Davis inside, but I don’t trust the rest of the offense beyond him and James enough. The Lakers will miss Carmelo Anthony’s shooting as the Bucks do their best to swarm Davis inside and make the Lakers beat them from the perimeter.
The Lakers rank outside of the top half of the NBA in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, and I love the value of taking the Bucks as short 3.5-point favorites in a game that should be up-tempo, give Giannis Antetokounmpo transition opportunities where he is unstoppable, and offer plenty of chances for them to extend their lead late.
The Bucks rank among the top seven in the league in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, and their offense has been on fire lately with a 121.1 rating over their last six games.
Take Milwaukee to win and cover as 3.5-point favorites with value down to -4.5 on PointsBet.
