Wednesday's NBA slate is absolutely loaded with 12 games in total and there are four in particular that have caught the eyes of our betting analysts.Those four bets include two plays on over/unders, one spread bet and one prop.
Read on for more in-depth analysis from our crew and their best bets for Wednesday night.
NBA Odds & Picks
Phoenix Suns vs. Miami Heat
Malik Smith: The Miami Heat have been one of the best over teams (42-29-1 per Bet Labs) in the NBA this season despite their reputation for being a gritty defense-first team. And since Chris Paul was injured/ejected in a game against the Houston Rockets, the over has hit in five of the Phoenix Suns' past eight games.
Jimmy Butler is questionable to suit up, but that doesn't much change how I'd view the Heat's offensive ceiling since he and most of their other stars have been out of the lineup a various points this season.
The Suns could see Devin Booker hit the floor for this game after missing four games due to health and safety protocols. That will help a ton considering the Suns are playing the second night of a back-to-back and won't have Cam Johnson.At 219.5, I think the over has value up to 221, if Booker does indeed suit up.
Orlando Magic vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Raheem Palmer: The Orlando Magic and New Orleans Pelicans have been the top two defensive teams in the league since the All-Star break, allowing 104.9 and 105.8 points per 100 possessions respectively. They happen to meet each other tonight, just one night after playing games against the Phoenix Suns and Memphis Grizzlies, respectively. Nonetheless, this feels like a prime spot for an under with my model making this total 217 and the market making this total 223.
The Pelicans are 21st in pace (97.5) and 18th in Offensive Length of Possession (14.8 seconds). While the Magic play a lot faster, ranking 10th in pace (99.3) and 8th in Offensive Length of Possession (14.4), this is one of the worst offensive teams in the league, scoring just 104.2 points per 100 possessions in their non garbage time minutes, 29th among NBA teams. The Pelicans defense also ranks 25th in Defensive Length of Possession (14.8) so they have a way of forcing opposing teams into using up more of the shot clock.
In addition, with both teams playing a back-to-back we could see a slower pace than normal as well as less than optimal efficiency. The Pelicans are scoring just 107.0 points per 100 possessions on zero days rest, while the Magic are scoring just 98.9 on the second leg of a back-to-back. I'll play the under 223.
New York Knicks vs. Dallas Mavericks
Brandon Anderson: It's a little too late for Luka Doncic to make that long-awaited MVP push this season, but he's playing like an MVP right now nevertheless.
You probably recall Luka's slow start, and a lot of that was tied to miserable 3-point shooting. Doncic was under 29% on 3s for the first 29 games of the season and hit just 2.3 of 7.9 makes per game en route to 24.6 PPG during that first chunk of the season. He only went over this line in 10 of those 29 games.
He's up to 39% in these last 20 games, making 3.6 3s per game on 9.4 attempts, so the volume is up too, and he's gone over 2.5 makes in 13 of the games, hitting this over 65% of the time.
And you know we have to think about an escalator prop here. Doncic has at least four 3s in exactly half of these last 20 games, but we can play Luka to hit that many at +182. We should be getting closer to +100 so that's an easy play.
He's also hit at least five 3s in 30% of this 20-game stretch, and at +450 with an implied 18%, that leans heavily in our favor too — especially since the Knicks defense has regressed so badly and ranks bottom-10 in 3-pointers allowed.
I'll split my bet something like 50, 40, 10 between the three. I'm expecting near double digit attempts again, so let's hope Luka stays hot.
Toronto Raptors vs. San Antonio Spurs
Matt Moore: Fred VanVleet is back, and that's a big boost to Toronto. But the Spurs have a few things going for them. For starters, this is a huge motivational spot.
A win gives Gregg Popovich the most wins in NBA history; that's a big deal even in a league where coaching is rarely emphasized. Second, the Raptors have been horrible over the last month. Since Feb. 10, they are 2-8 ATS. They have just two wins since the All-Star Break, both vs. the Nets without Kevin Durant. They've lost to worse teams than this Spurs team.
The Raptors are still without Malachi Flynn and OG Anunoby. For a team that has been forced to play starters the most minutes in the league this season, that's rough. They don't have enough shooting, and Dejounte Murray should tear up the bench units in his staggered time.
Again, FVV's return matters here, but not enough for me to have the Spurs as dogs. I like the Spurs straight up here, but I'll take the points.
