If you're looking to start your week off right with some NBA betting, you've come to the right place. Tonight's eight-game slate brings us two matchups on NBA TV: Nets vs. Bulls (8 p.m. ET) and Hornets vs. Lakers (10:30 p.m. ET).
Three of our NBA analysts are all over the latter matchup, but they have also found three other best from two games with betting value. You can read their analysis and see their favorite Monday night bets below.
NBA Odds & Picks
MinnesotaTimberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Matt Moore: The Memphis Grizzlies' defense (or lack thereof) is alarming. They rank 30th in adjusted Defensive Rating and have held that spot for over a week.
They can't get the stops they need, as good as their offense looks. They are giving up the fifth-worst opponent eFG% and fourth-worst expected eFG% according to Second Spectrum data. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Timberwolves are actually generating really good shots, the fourth-best expected eFG%.
Now, I don't want to bank on instant regression, but I'm catching six here. The Grizzlies have a 7-point halfcourt-per-game offensive advantage, but a 13-point halfcourt defensive advantage. The Grizz rank 25th in transition offense per possession, the Wolves are fourth-best in transition defense per possession.
The differential here is that Memphis' record despite a tough schedule does not match its actual on-court resume. The Wolves' problem is basically: they lost to the Clippers twice. That's it.
I've sprinkled a little on the moneyline, but six points is just too much for this Memphis team, even at home.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Jacob McKenna: The over has not been a friendly bet to make in the grand scheme of things to start the NBA season, but we could see a high scoring affair between the Timberwolves and Grizzlies tonight.
As Matt noted above, Memphis has struggled on the defensive end of the floor to begin the season, and as a result ranks 29th in the league in Defensive Rating (112.7 points per 100 possessions). This has allowed teams to pour on the points against the Grizzlies and has caused Memphis to give up at least 110 points in six of its first nine games, a trend that will likely continue.
Sure, Minnesota doesn’t pose a major threat on the offensive end, and scoring just 84 points in their last outing against the Clippers is a little concerning. However, the Timberwolves find themselves ranked seventh overall in Pace and should get a nice boost on offense against a struggling Memphis defense.
Overall, Minnesota has been a good defensive team, but has allowed an average of 109.2 points per game in the past five games. I’m expecting the Grizzlies to reach a similar number to that in this game.
Furthermore, Memphis and Minnesota are both in the top seven in 3-pointers made and attempted per game. Neither team is afraid to let the ball fly from behind the arc.
Like I mentioned earlier, the over has not been good to many bettors. However, both teams are coming off 20-plus point losses where they are looking to bounce back, and the over is 2-1 when Memphis is a home favorite this season. These teams also squared off three times last year, where they combined for an average of 242 points per game and never combined for less than 225.
My model has this total predicted at 221, which is where I would play it up to.
Phoenix Suns vs. Kings
Joe Dellera: The Kings are playing their second game in as many days and take on the Phoenix Suns. Deandre Ayton remains out with a leg injury and I wrote about how to pivot off of his absence here, but for this play, I’m more focused on how this impacts the Suns’ defense.
Currently, the Suns give up the third-fewest points in the paint per game (40.5), but without Ayton to anchor this defense, they are more vulnerable. The Kings score the eighth-most points in the paint per game (48.8) and a major contributor is Richaun Holmes. He's having an excellent season, averaging 15.4 points and 10.8 rebounds per game. He absolutely feasts on the interior and takes 69.2% of his shots from less than 10 feet.
In their matchup on Oct. 27, Ayton feasted and scored 21 points while securing 21 rebounds and even then Richaun Holmes had his own double-double of 12 points and 12 rebounds. Holmes’ points and rebounds line is set at 22.5, a number he’s gone over in six of 10 games this season.
Without Ayton, Holmes should have the paint entirely to himself tonight.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Roberto Arguello: The Lakers rank 28th in Spread Differential as they have failed to cover by an average of 6.1 points per game, and I expect more of the same on Monday night. The Lakers’ offense isn’t efficient without it running through James, and Westbrook, with his poor shooting and decision making, is a poor substitute for the Lakers as their main distributor.
So far this season, the Hornets have been great offensively and terrible defensively. They rank sixth in the league with an Offensive Rating of 111.8 (excluding garbage time, per Cleaning The Glass), but they have also ranked 29th in Defensive Rating (114.1) out of 30 teams. However, the Lakers may just get in their own way too much on Monday to take advantage of the Hornets’ poor defense.
While both teams are struggling, the Lakers have played the fourth-easiest strength of schedule, but the Hornets have played the second-toughest strength of schedule to date.
After ranking among the league’s three most-efficient defenses each of the last two seasons, the Lakers rank 15th in Defensive Rating (107.9) this season. Furthermore, with the Lakers’ injuries to James, THT, and Nunn, the Hornets have the better offensive talent in this game – whether Davis plays or not.
If Davis plays, the Lakers should become heavier favorites, and I would wait until the Hornets get to +3 or better to take them on the spread (or +130 or better on the moneyline).
If Davis is out, take the Hornets on the moneyline at -110 or better (or if this is unavailable, get them on the spread at -2 or better). Otherwise, wait to get them live at these prices or better — their defense has been inconsistent, and there will be opportunities to get better value live if needed.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Brandon Anderson: Yeah, you're darn right I'm confidently taking the Hornets on the road at the Staples Center against the Lakers.
These just aren't the Lakers that we were promised entering the season. LeBron James is out, so obviously you have to start there. Anthony Davis is questionable and played just seven minutes last time out; even if Davis starts, it's always a question of whether he'll finish too.
So what does that leave? Whatever's left of Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony, Kent Bazemore, DeAndre Jordan, Avery Bradley, and Wayne Ellington. Woof. This team without the two superstars is a walking Who He Play For meme just waiting for Charles Barkley.
The Lakers got absolutely annihilated Sunday by the Portland Trail Blazers. They got run off the court 36-14 in the first quarter and trailed by 31 heading into the fourth before Portland relented. The offense scored at a 39% EFG rate, abysmal against anyone but especially against the Blazers.
The Lakers do not look up for it, and the Hornets are the exact wrong team to face if you're not up for it. LA has been running, playing Russ ball, and the Hornets are going to be ready for the track meet.
Charlotte ranks dead last in Defensive Efficiency, but should they really be afraid of those Lakers scoring? Fast pace means more possessions, and the Hornets have the lowest turnover rate in the league, so all of that adds up to the better team — that's Charlotte right now — getting more opportunities to widen the talent gap.
Maybe this is one of those games Davis actually plays and dominates in a nice matchup, but I'll take my chances. I love playing the Hornets against old or disinterested teams, and the Lakers look like both right now. I'll take the moneyline at any plus number as an underdog.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Raheem Palmer: The Lakers may have the name and prestige, but it’s pretty clear that this isn’t the same team we're used to seeing. Trading three key rotational pieces — Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Montrezl Harrell — for Russell Westbrook has turned the Wizards into a playoff team and the Lakers into a shell of their former selves, particularly in the absence of LeBron James who is out with an abdominal injury.
The Lakers are a whopping 8.5 points per 100 possessions better with James on vs. off and it’s the offense that suffers most with this team scoring 111.2 points per 100 possessions with him on the court and 101.2 with him off the court (+10).
We’re left with an old, flabby and sick roster with many flaws. Westbrook is averaging just 19 points per game while shooting 41.8% from the field, 26.8% from behind the arc along with 4.9 turnovers a game. With Westbrook on the floor, the Lakers have an offensive rating of just 105.5.
With Anthony Davis consistently injured or playing through injuries, it’s tough to trust this roster to do anything. This team is just 21st in Offensive Rating, scoring 105.1 points per 100 possessions in their non garbage time minutes.
They’re taking on a Hornets team in need of a win after losing four straight games and five out of their past six. They held a nine point lead over the Clippers with six minutes to go before snatching defeat from the jaws of victory after giving up a 22-0 run. Fortunately, they’re back in the same building tonight against an older Lakers team which should present some advantages.
The Lakers rank dead last in opponent field goal frequency at the rim, an area where the Hornets are getting shooting the fourth-most field goal attempts (36.9%). The Lakers are also 18th in opponent field goal percentage from behind the arc, an area where the Hornets thrive, shooting 38.6% from behind the arc — third among NBA teams. The Hornets are also eighth in half court PTS per play while facing a Lakers defense which is 21st in half court PTS per play.
If there’s any area where the Lakers could slow the Hornets down, it’s in transition, but besides that it feels like the Hornets have most of the advantages in this matchup. I personally think the wrong team is favored in this matchup as my model makes the Hornets 1.5-point road favorites.
I’ll back the Hornets with the +2 and look for LaMelo Ball & Co. to put an end to their four game losing streak.
