Tuesday's night's NBA schedule brings us six games to bet, including two national TV matchups on TNT: Suns vs. Nets (7:30 p.m. ET) and Thunder vs. Lakers (10 p.m. ET).
Tonight's slate really has both the hottest scorer in the Association, (we see you, Cam Thomas) and the soon-to-be NBA scoring leader, who sits just 36 points away from history.
Our analysts are tacking three games on tonight's slate like player props, totals and even a same game parlay. Read on for their expert picks and predictions for Tuesday.
NBA Odds & Picks
Phoenix Suns vs. Brooklyn Nets
Joe Dellera: Few things are as nerve-racking as betting against a truly elite scorer, especially when their minutes are uncertain in a return from injury. But that’s exactly what I’m asking you to do tonight in Devin Booker’s return to the court.
Booker is returning after missing nearly two months with a groin injury. Booker will face a minutes restriction upon his return, and I’d expect him to play between 20–25 minutes but no more than that. I wrote more about his impact in my Player Props Forecast.
These are two of the slower-paced teams in the league and possessions should be more methodical, bringing down the tempo of the game with fewer scoring opportunities.
Booker’s points prop is set at 20.5, and this is a touch high. I have him projected for roughly 19.5 points in 25 minutes of play, but that’s his ceiling expectation. In Bookers’ past 25 games in which he played 25 minutes or fewer, he has exceeded 20.5 points just once — he barely cleared it with 21 points.
There are more opportunities for unders, he can have a rusty shooting performance, he could play fewer minutes than I’m even projecting, or he could (and I do not wish this at all) re-aggravate the injury like he did against the Nuggets on Christmas. I like the under here.
Phoenix Suns vs. Brooklyn Nets
Chris Baker: I’ve consistently faded this Suns team against good opponents this season but this current Nets team does not qualify as good. The Nets have competed in their past two games due to outlier shooting but I think it is highly likely we see regression from them here as they will have to face a solid Suns defense.
The Suns rank 10th in defensive rating on the season but have struggled on offense, ranking 18th in adjusted offensive rating according to Dunks And Threes. Much of their offensive struggles can be attributed to the absence of Devin Booker but fortunately for them, Booker is returning to the floor tonight. With Booker on the court, the Suns have a 122.0 offensive rating (96th percentile).
A 122.0 offensive rating would make them the best offense in the league by a full 3.8 points. The difference Booker makes cannot be understated as the offense if a full +13.1 points per 100 possessions.
That makes him the second-most impactful offensive rating swing player in the league behind the MVP, Nikola Jokic. This line is not properly accounting for the impact he will have on this team. Even if Booker is on a minutes restriction I expect his presence on the court to energize the rest of this Suns team.
Finally, I expect the Suns role players to be motivated to make a statement in Brooklyn. I promise you guys have heard the same Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant trade rumors that we have these past six months and I think that some of these guys may have a chip on their shoulder in this one.
I bet this at -4.5 before it moved based on the news. If you can get this at -6, fire away.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
Matt Moore: The under in Nuggets home games this season is 16-12-1, and the under in Nuggets games overall with a total above 230 is 16-9-1. Denver's overall Defensive Rating, which impacts its total projection, is skewed by an early season performance where the Nuggets were bottom-five.
Over the past two months of play, Denver ranks among the top 10 in Defensive Rating. On top of that, the Nuggets play at an absolutely glacial pace. They are 22nd in offensive possession length. I bet this near open at 236, but I like it at any number it closes.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Brandon Anderson: LeBron James is on the verge of breaking Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's all-time scoring record. He's now 36 points away with a chance to break the record tonight in front of the home fans and … the Oklahoma City Thunder?
If you've followed James for even a minute the last two decades, you know there's no more calculated athlete in the world. This man controls the narrative like none other.
Do you really think he wants to break the record in a random game against a lottery team when he can just cozy up toward the record and then bust through in all its glory Thursday night in a national TV game against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks with Abdul-Jabbar in the arena?
LeBron is not breaking that record tonight. He ain't doing it, and that's the angle. He shouldn't even get close enough to really threaten it or send the crowd into a buzz, but he'll also want to score enough to make sure Thursday is a foregone conclusion. Look for something safely in the 20s.
So how can we make this more juicy?
Well, if LeBron is purposely limiting his scoring, it could lead to a more passive game overall. James has scored over 30 points in almost half of his games this season. When he scores over 30, he has 12 games of eight or more dimes and only five at six or below. But when he scores 30 or less, he has only nine games with 8+ and a full 14 games with six or fewer. That means he's hit this SGP in 58% of his games at 30 points or below and 33% overall.
I'll play the narrative angle and use these alternate lines to play for a quieter game from the King and wait for LeBron to explode with everyone watching Thursday night.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Munaf Manji: The Lakers welcome the Thunder to town tonight who are on a back-to-back after getting spanked by the Golden State Warriors last night.
The big storyline surrounding the Lakers is going to be LeBron James attempting to break the all-time scoring record in NBA history. However, I am going to pivot away from James and bank on the other superstar in this game, Anthony Davis to have a big night. Since returning from his injury, Davis looks to have his legs back under game over the past two games.
He has attempted 52 shot attempts in those two games and has scored 30+ points in both games. Furthermore, the Thunder lacks the size to guard Davis, especially in the post. The Thunder are allowing 51.9 points per game on the season, which ranks 22nd, according to NBA Advanced Stats. Davis scores 61.9% of his points inside the paint.
Davis has also gone over this projection in two straight games against the Thunder. I expect a big night scoring the basketball from Anthony Davis, I would take this up to 30+ points tonight for plus odds.
