Through two games, the Western Conference finals has been a display of dominance by the Golden State Warriors who are playing at a high level against the young Dallas Mavericks.
The Mavericks face an uphill battle in Game 3 as they look to get on the board in the series, but they head home where they've been fantastic this postseason. Two of our NBA analysts see value in betting the first half spread, while another is eying a key player prop.
Check out their analysis and best bets below for Sunday's Game 3 matchup.
NBA Odds & Picks
Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks
Brandon Anderson: So far, the Warriors have dominated almost every facet of this series. The Warriors are scoring at will, with Game 2 turning into a layup line at times, and the Mavs have struggled to find consistent offense despite an outrageous shooting first half Thursday night.
This was expected, though. The Mavs were coming off a seven-game series, and the Warriors remain unbeaten at home. But Golden State hasn't been nearly as good on the road. The Warriors have a 119.8 Offensive Rating at home per NBA Advanced Stats in these playoffs, but that drops to 108.7 on the road. Role players like Jordan Poole, Kevon Looney, and Andrew Wiggins have been much more comfortable at home.
On the flip side, the Mavs have been far better at home. Dallas's Defensive Rating on the road in the playoffs sits at 118.4, while its home DRTG is just 102.4. That's one point fewer every six possessions, a dramatic effect. We knew it would take some time for Dallas's defense to adjust to this heavy movement and back cut offense.
So far this postseason, Dallas has been absolutely dominant in the first half at home with a +14.5 Net Rating. The Warriors have been just the opposite with an ugly -15.6 road Net Rating in the first half, digging a big hole early. Combined, that's nearly a one point swing every three possessions. And in two games this series, Dallas actually has a +6.3 Net Rating in the first half before tiring out and collapsing to a disastrous -40.2 in the second half.
Dallas is effectively playing for its playoff lives at home down 0-2, and historically, this has been a great spot to back the home team early. Since the 2016 playoffs, teams coming home down 0-2 are an incredible 36-12-1 ATS (75%) in the first half, a trend our Raheem Palmer has written about (https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-playoff-betting-trends-postseason-tips-analysis-2021). That trend has been successful this postseason too at 4-2 ATS, including a win by Dallas just last round in this spot.
✅ Dallas 1H
Teams down 0-2 coming home for Game 3 are now 36-12-1 ATS (75%) in the first half.
2-0 tonight.
See you next round, trend. https://t.co/bs4rhekddx
— Brandon Anderson (@wheatonbrando) May 7, 2022
I'm expecting the Mavs to make life difficult for this Warriors offense. I'll take the Mavs to win the first half at -130, and I want some alternate action too. At FanDuel, you can get +205 for the Mavs to win the half by seven or more and +330 to win it by double digits. The trends are so strong that I have to be aggressive here. Let's hope Dallas is too.
Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks
Munaf Manji: The Dallas Mavericks are in a must win situation in Game 3 on their home floor to make this a series down 0-2. Their postseason success has largely come on the heels of their ability to knock down their 3-pointers at a consistent and high rate. One of their most consistent shooters to this point has bee Reggie Bullock.
Bullock is shooting 40% from beyond the arc in the playoffs at a healthy volume of 7.3 attempts per game. Bullock has made at least three 3-pointers in 10 of his 15 playoff games this season.
Bullock topped this number in Game 1 going 3-of-10 from deep and followed that in Game 2 with a 6-of-10 shooting night from behind the arc. Bullock is averaging 2.9 3s in the playoffs and 2.8 of those makes have been either open or wide open, according to NBA Advanced Stats. I expect him to get plenty more open looks off playing off Luka Doncic and go over this prop in Game 3.
Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks
Raheem Palmer: Given the impact of home court advantage throughout the NBA Playoffs, one of the most profitable angles has been backing teams down 0-2 in both the first quarter and first half of games.
The logic is simple: no team has overcome a 3-0 deficit to win a seven-game playoff series in NBA history, and thus the sense of urgency teams feel when down 0-2 means they’re playing harder than the opposing team, particularly at the start of games with the home crowd behind them.
Since the 2015-16 season, this trend is 36-12-1 ATS, hitting a whopping 75% of the time. If you blindly bet this for $100 each time, you would be up $2,147. While this trend is now priced in with oddsmakers, forcing you to lay the same number for the first half and full game, it is 4-2 in the postseason this year, so it's still profitable if you can pick your spot.
This feels like a good spot to play this angle as the Mavericks have been a dominant home team, and with their ability to shoot the 3 in addition to a home whistle, they should get the job done here.
I like the Mavericks to win this game, but the stronger play is on the first-half spread
