We are in the home stretch of the NBA regular season as there are seven games on tap tonight.
Our Action Network NBA analysts Joe Dellera and Brandon Anderson have two prop bets that they love in important games with playoff seeding ramifications.
Check out their best bets below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Toronto Raptors
Joe Dellera: All eyes are on Joel Embiid as he makes his end of season push to be the league’s Most Valuable Player, but there are some other role players on the 76ers who are critically important as well. Since the arrival of James Harden, the specific roles for many non-primary offensive options have changed now that they have a true facilitator on the floor.
It sounds funny to say a max salary player like Tobias Harris is a tertiary option and is essentially a role player, but that’s what he is on this team. Besides the colossal overpayment, there’s nothing wrong with a changing role, and it has created value because he is really being overlooked at this point in the market.
The role change that Harris is undergoing is he’s being asked to create for himself less often, and he is being used in a Catch and Shoot role now. Prior to Harden’s first game with the 76ers, just 18.9% of Harris’ shot attempts were categorized as Catch and Shoot; he was dribbling much more and 57% of his shot attempts took place after two or more dribbles, including 10.3% after seven or more, and just 29.9% were after zero dribbles.
Since Harden first donned a 76ers uniform there has been a massive shift in Harris’ shot profile. Now, 37% of his shots are categorized as Catch and Shoot, 43.3% of his shots follow two or more dribbles, and 46.9% of his shots are after zero dribbles.
Harden’s gravity is creating better looks as well. Prior to Harden’s arrival, only 32% of Harris' shots from further than 10 feet away from the basket could be categorized as Open or Wide Open (Closest Defender 4-6 feet and 6+ feet). But since the trade, this has climbed to a whopping 44.9%, per NBA Advanced Stats.
Harris is getting better looks with Harden, and his 3-point prop is one to target as it currently sits at 1.5 3s. In 21 games with James Harden this season, he has made two or more 3s in 15 of them (71% of games); this should be contrasted with Harris covering this line in just 16 of 49 games (33%) without Harden. Although he is being asked to take fewer shots, since those shots are of higher quality, he has seen an uptick in efficiency.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Brandon Anderson: Anybody up for a homecoming?
Tonight might be Tre Jones night in Minnesota. Jones grew up in Apple Valley, Minnesota, in the Twin Cities area, and he was a basketball legend. He was the state's Mr. Basketball and two-time Minnesota Player of the Year, and that was all before he went on to star at Duke University. He didn't quite live up to the expectations established by his older brother Tyus there, who led his team to a national title, but Minnesota fans love the Joneses and of course employed Tyus for four years out of college.
Tonight, it's baby bro's time to shine. The Spurs clinched a play-in berth with the Lakers loss on Tuesday night, so now the goal is to get healthy and rest a little before next Wednesday's play-in game. That means Dejounte Murray will sit this one out, and with the way San Antonio's first-time All Star has been playing, that leaves a whole heap of minutes and usage up for grabs.
Expect Tre Jones to step into that role and shine. He's started nine times this season and has played at least 32 minutes in all but one of those starts with very admirable numbers at 14.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 8.0 assists per game in those 32-minute games.
That means I'm hunting Jones overs, and honestly, I like them all. He's gone over his 12.5 points prop in six of the eight games, and he's over 7.5 assists in five of them. He's also over 4.5 rebounds in five of the eight, and that one's plus juice against a poor rebounding team. The assists line doesn't offer a ton of value, but the points and rebounds lines both look good, so we'll play them both together and look for a big homecoming game.
I also don't mind playing Jones's turnovers under at -130 for under 1.5. That may seem counterintuitive with the higher minutes and usage, but Jones takes care of the ball as well as almost anyone in the league and rarely ever turns it over. He's only recorded five turnovers total in those eight high-minute starts and has gone under that line in all but one of them.
If you really want to go whole hog, you can use a Same Game Parlay on all four individual props for one big Tre Jones stack. I'm seeing that one at +550 for a big Jones homecoming. But the best and safest play looks like the points + rebounds over, so we'll play that one to -130.
