The NBA season rolls on with two marquee matchups on TNT tonight. The 76ers host the Bucks in a clash of Eastern Conference contenders before the Clippers face the Lakers in the late night game.
While it's a smaller slate than Wednesday, our analysts have still found plenty of value on the board. Check out their best bets and analysis below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Joe Dellera: Grayson Allen was the next man up for the Milwaukee Bucks last season whenever one of their top guards missed time. So, I’m once again asking you to bet on Allen with Khris Middleton missing the start of the season.
In 13 regular season games last season without Middleton, Allen averaged 17.2 points on four 3s per game compared to 9.6 points and two 3s with Middleton playing. While our most recent memory is him falling out of favor in the Boston series, that was due to the matchup and Pat Connaughton getting extended run without Middleton because he was a better fit in that specific matchup.
We will not have that concern here since Connaughton is out as well with a right calf strain.
If you follow me in the Action App, you would have seen I unloaded on Over 9.5 Points, but there is still a ton of value on the Over 10.5 that’s currently on Bet365 and DraftKings. Feel free to escalate this as well with 15+ (+260 at Bet365) and 20+ (+825 at Bet 365). If those lines are not available to you, but you’d still like additional action, either reduce your risk on the alternates, increase your baseline bet on the 10.5, or pivot to his 3s prop – all of which are viable.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Chris Baker: I was on the over in the 76ers vs. Celtics game on Tuesday, and it cashed by about 30 points.
The market has a little too much respect for both of these defenses right now. The 76ers gave up 126 points to Boston and were outscored 24-2 in transition points. The Bucks may look to push the ball a bit more with no Middleton as we have sometimes seen them struggle to score in the halfcourt without him in the lineup.
Even if the Bucks can’t get out and run as much as they want to, they shouldn't have issues scoring in the halfcourt as the Philly point-of-attack defense is horrible. Holiday should have his way with Maxey or Harden, and we saw that Boston generated lots of open 3s, so Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez, and Grayson Allen should have some clean looks.
On the other end, it feels like the market is slightly overvaluing this Bucks defense as they ranked just 14th in Adjusted Defensive Rating last season, per dunksandthrees.com. This Bucks defense is solid when fully healthy, but down two of their better defenders, I view them as league-average at best.
The 76ers just went on the road against a Celtics team that ranked fist in Defensive Rating last year and hung a respectable 217. They should exceed this total against a Bucks team that will feature plenty of weak defenders like Allen, Jordan Nwora and Marjon Beauchamp. Expect the Bucks to give up plenty of 3s and both teams to struggle in transition. Take Over 223.5 at BetRivers, with value up to 225.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Matt Moore: This opened at-4 (and admission: this is where I bet it). If it gets to -6 or 6.5, I think you’ve chased too much steam. That said…
This number likely factors in a homecourt advantage for the Lakers, and let’s be clear, the crowd will be 80-90% or more Lakers fans. This is their home opener, and home dogs historically are profitable in their home opener.
But let’s look at the number. Last February, the Clippers played “at” the Lakers and were three-point dogs without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The Lakers were without Anthony Davis but had LeBron James and Russell Westbrook (and arguably a better roster).
The Clippers won that game outright by three, but what’s more important is the number. The Clippers roster got better (Norman Powell and Robert Covington did not play in that game).
The Lakers roster arguably got worse. The Clippers have PG and Kawhi back, relative to the Lakers getting just Davis back… and the number is only two points higher than that figure.
The Clippers are also 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS against their Crypto.com Arena co-tenants since the Lakers won the title in 2020, but that’s neither here nor there. Okay, it might be a little here and a little there.
The Lakers quite simply do not appear to be, by any measure, in the Clippers’ class. Fading underdogs in their home opener is not fun, but this line simply does not make sense relative to the factors in play.
The Lakers have a glaring issue with wing depth and shooting; the Clippers led the league in 3-point shooting efficiency two seasons ago and are stocked with scorers. The Lakers have a nearly non-NBA-caliber bench; the Clippers are arguably the deepest team in the league.
If the number was higher, I genuinely would be on the other side, but at anything south of Clippers -6, it’s reasonable to fade what appears to be a Lakers team that not only is circling the drain, but is actively aware of it.
