The Action Network NBA Staff has two best bets for Sunday's matchup between the Heat and Kings in Sacramento. Roberto Arguello has a play on the spread, while Joe Dellera is eying a player prop. Check out their best bets and analysis below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Miami Heat vs. Sacramento Kings
Roberto Arguello: The Miami Heat only have five full-time roster players available, but they are still rightfully favored against the Kings in Sacramento. The Heat are dealing with a myriad of absences due to injuries and COVID, but they have continued to play quality defense despite being short handed, and this has helped them win five straight games and nine of their last 11 overall.
On the other hand, the Kings defense is a train wreck as they are coming off of a 16-point home loss to the Luka Doncic-less Mavericks that left coach Alvin Gentry beside himself.
"If anybody needs me I'll be at home drinking." — Interim Kings coach Alvin Gentry
— Jason Anderson (@JandersonSacBee) January 1, 2022
While the Kings have shown nice offensive flashes recently with Tyrese Haliburton playing more on ball, their inconsistent effort on the defensive end will doom them against the Heat. De’Aaron Fox hasn’t scored more than 16 points in his four games since returning from COVID as he ramps back up, and the Kings won’t have the 3-point shooting to beat the Heat’s defense that forces jumpshots from the perimeter unless Buddy Hield has a huge night.
Expect Jimmy Butler to lead the Heat to a win and take care of business as short road favorites today before a tough matchup with the Warriors tomorrow.
Miami Heat vs. Sacramento Kings
Joe Dellera: Since De’Aaron Fox entered the league’s health and safety protocols, Tyrese Haliburton has stepped up and filled a larger role in the Kings’ offense. Even though Fox has now returned, Haliburton has not seen a downtick in either usage or production, especially as a facilitator.
Since December 17th (the first game Fox missed), Haliburton is averaging 20.6 points, 10.3 assists, and 3.8 rebounds on 51.3% shooting across eight games. These numbers are excellent, and his role as a facilitator seems here to stay considering he has not had an assist percentage lower than 41.7% during this time frame, per Cleaning the Glass.
While the Miami Heat have a strong frontcourt defense and defend the point guard position well, this line is not adjusted far enough for Haliburton’s increased role. Haliburton has cleared 22.5 points and assists in seven of his last eight games, with the one miss being 22 on a poor shooting night against the Dallas Mavericks as his average output has been 30.875 Points +Assists. I expect Haliburton to clear this threshold even against this tougher Miami defense.
