The NBA Playoffs continue on Sunday with two pivotal Game 4s. In both Suns-Mavericks and Heat-76ers, the home teams have won all six total games, but will that change today? Joe Dellera and Raheem Palmer share their analysis and best bets below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks
Joe Dellera: Jae Crowder is a notoriously streaky shooter, and after making just three 3s in the entire series against the Pelicans, he’s made, three, three, and five in the first three games against the Mavericks.
He’s getting good looks as the Mavericks are trying to force the ball out of CP3 and Devin Booker’s hands, and he’s taken no fewer than five 3-point attempts in each game this series.
Crowder is a 41.7% 3-point shooter on his career, and this translates to the playoffs.
Jae Crowder's standard line is 1.5 (-155), but I like his alternates of 3+ (+220 on FanDuel), 4+ (+690 on FanDuel), and 5+ (+1425 on Bet365) 3s made.
He’s made over 1.5 3s in 18/31 playoff games with the Suns, but he’s cleared 2.5 in 15/31 over the last two years. Those odds are off, especially for the 3+ makes. If you’re risk averse, play the 1.5, but I think there’s significantly more value on 3+, a number he’s hit in 48% of playoff games with the Suns. At +220, the implied odds are just 31.25%.
Considering he just made five in Game 3, I'll sprinkle the 4+ and 5+ alternates as well.
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Raheem Palmer: Home teams have been dominant in the NBA postseason thus far, going 37-23 (61.7%) straight up. While they’re just 31-30 (50.8%) ATS, we have some spreads on the board today which are close to a PK, and therefore, picking the winner will likely get you to the winner on the spread.
Since the conference semifinals have started, home teams are 10-2 straight up. With two teams at home down 2-1 with short spreads, it’s very likely we’ll see at least one of these teams win and tie the series 2-2 before hitting the road for a pivotal Game 5.
With Joel Embiid back, I'm eying the 76ers. Having a big who walls off the paint on defense has been a game changer as they held the Heat to just 79 points in Game 3 on 0.92 points per possession in a 20-point win, even though Embiid wasn’t his best offensively.
Still, his presence opens things up for James Harden, Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey as the 76ers scored 7.3 more points per 100 possessions with him on the floor in the regular season and were a +11.5 overall with his defense.
In the postseason, that number has jumped up to +17.5, meaning this team goes from a bottom tier team to a contender with Embiid in the lineup. I’ll back the 76ers to tie the series here as Embiid and the home crowd should push the 76ers to a win.
