The NBA season continues on Sunday with an eight-game slate and plenty of betting value. Our experts Chris Baker and Matt Moore have found a pair of picks, a spread bet and a total bet, worth tailing. Check out their best bets and analysis below.
NBA Odds & Picks
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Chris Baker: I’m buying low on the Clippers on Sunday afternoon. This team has started off the year slow as they are 2-3 and just 24th in Adjusted Net Rating. They are coming off back-to-back road losses to the Thunder while the Pelicans just lost to the Suns on Friday night.
The Clippers haven’t played since Thursday, so they have a rest advantage here. Whenever you play New Orleans, it is super important that you are able to block out on defense as they currently rank second in the NBA in Offensive Rebound Rate. Between Jonas Valanciunas, Zion Williamson and Herb Jones, the Pelicans have a ton of elite rebounders.
The Clippers rank fifth-best in half-court Defensive Rebound Rate, so they should limit the second-chance opportunities for the Pelicans. Valanciunas and Williamson are also both game-time decisions, so there is a legitimate chance that they don’t suit up.
Another edge for the Clippers is their wing defense. The Clippers have traditionally guarded the 3-point line very well as they ranked eighth-best at preventing 3-point attempts last year. The Pelicans rank fourth in the NBA in 3-point percentage, making 40.5% of their attempts. They are shooting 43.9% on non-corner 3s, which leads the NBA. This is definitely a talented Pelicans team, but they aren’t going to maintain this level of shooting throughout the entire season.
New Orleans ranked 28th in the NBA in 3-point accuracy last year, making just 33.3% of their attempts. The Pelicans should begin to regress, and there is no better spot for them to regress than against a long Clippers team with tons of switchable wing defenders.
The Clippers are on the other end of the spectrum of regression as they rank 27th in 3-point percentage in 2022-2023. They ranked second-best in the NBA in making 38% of their 3s in 2021-2022, and I expect them to get back on track here against a Pelicans team that isn’t particularly good at defending the 3-point line. Trust the Clippers to cover the small number regardless of whether Williamson or Jones play.
Washington Wizards vs. Boston Celtics
Matt Moore: Money has moved the other way on this, but I'm undeterred. I have this projected north of 230.
Boston's defense has been surprisingly leaky to start the season. The Wizards offense has a bad overall mark, but there's still firepower there. Boston has the No. 1 half-court offense and the 28th-ranked half-court defense. That will improve, and I have no doubt that they'll work their way back into being a top-10 or top-five unit this season.
But as of right now, it's bad. I'm fading where they are now vs. where they will be and trusting the Wizards a bit vs. a relatively low number.
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