With no NBA games on Thanksgiving, there are still a handful of opportunities to bet on the NBA early this week.
Tuesday's NBA slate has just four games, but our Action Network NBA Staff has you covered with three best bets, including bets on both nationally televised games on TNT: Los Angles Lakers Lakers vs. New York Knicks and Denver Nuggets vs. Portland Trail Blazers.
Check Roberto Arguello, Joe Dellera, and Kenny Ducey's analysis below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Heat vs. Pistons
Roberto Arguello: The Heat should dominate the Pistons on Tuesday night in Detroit. Bam Adebayo (Illness) is probable for the Heat while Duncan Robinson (Knee) is questionable.
With Adebayo likely to play, the Heat should have a big advantage inside as the Pistons will be without Isaiah Stewart due to a suspension following Sunday’s altercation with LeBron James. Pistons backup center Kelly Olynyk is also out with an injury, and after Stewart was ejected on Sunday, the Pistons didn’t play another true center against the Lakers.
This will be a problem against a Heat team that ranks fifth in Offensive Rebounding Rate and second in Defensive Rebounding Rate. The Pistons have struggled mightily to shoot the ball this season as they rank dead last in the NBA in 3-point accuracy (30.6%) and eFG% (47.2%, excluding garbage time per Cleaning The Glass). The Heat force opponents to take jumpshots as opponents take the most 3s against them in the NBA (44.5% of opponent shots).
The Pistons won’t have the muscle inside to battle on the boards and generate easy looks at the rim, and they don’t have the shooting to beat the Heat’s defense with jumpers. Expect the Heat to win comfortably in Detroit by double digits as long as Adebayo plays. Keep an eye on his status on our injury report which will be updated throughout the day here.
Lakers vs. Knicks
Joe Dellera: Talen Horton-Tucker should start tonight against the Knicks with LeBron James serving a one-game suspension.
In the three games THT played before LeBron returned from injury, he was a focal point for the Lakers’ offense. He scored 17, 28, and 25 points and had usage rates of 25.8%, 19.7%, and 24.4% respectively, which is good for fourth highest on the Lakers behind LeBron, Westbrook, and Davis. With LeBron out, and Anthony Davis downgraded to Questionable, THT should see all the run that he can.
One factor that has contributed to his scoring is his 3-point shooting. In games without LeBron, he has taken five, nine, and six 3s, which is a significant uptick from his one and two attempts with LeBron in the lineup. Those opportunities give THT tremendous scoring upside.
I’ll take him to go over his points prop of 15.5, but if Davis sits, I’d be interested in an alternate line of 20+ points (at +250 on DraftKings).
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers
Kenny Ducey: The Denver Nuggets will have a ton of value at +7 on the spread in the event Nikola Jokic plays, but with the line moving at this rate, concern has to be growing that he won’t suit up.
While defense has the tendency to translate with or without star players on the floor, it’s possible that Denver’s was a mirage all along. The Nuggets have dropped to 12th in Defensive Rating after peaking at No. 2 in the league, and assuming Jokic doesn’t play, it’s going to get ugly.
The Nuggets are allowing 12.8 more points per 100 possessions this year without Jokic on the floor, and while they’re not scoring as much either, that is a concerning number if I’m looking to take Denver. The Nuggets’ outside shooting has survived — if not thrived — without Jokic, and there’s certainly a world where they can score on a poor Trail Blazers defense.
The lack of any sort of resistance when Portland has the ball, however, really scares me off of this spread.
It does, however, make me want to take the over. The Nuggets’ pace has increased ever so slightly in non-Jokic minutes this year, and with a decent attack from the outside which should get even stronger now with Will Barton back, I believe in this offense just enough to get us to this number. The defense will certainly do its part.
