Raptors vs. Bucks Odds & Pick (Monday, August 10): Back Milwaukee Even Without Giannis

Editors note: Giannis Antetokounmpo has been ruled out Monday after undergoing oral surgery to address a toothache. He was previously listed as probable. You can check out more updates in our NBA Insiders tool.

Raptors vs. Bucks Betting Odds

Odds as of Sunday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors sit atop the Eastern Conference playoff picture, locked into the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds respectively. The Bucks clinched the best record in the Eastern Conference with Thursday’s win over the Miami Heat while the Raptors clinched the second seed and their second straight Atlantic Division title with Sunday’s win against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Unfortunately for us, this makes this possible Eastern Conference Finals matchup all but meaningless. I do expect both teams to play their starters as this is one last chance for both teams to test themselves against one another while continuing to build rhythm and momentum for the postseason.

Toronto Raptors

The Toronto Raptors followed up Friday night’s 122-100 thrashing from the Boston Celtics with a 108-99 win over the Memphis Grizzlies. Although their loss to the Celtics was their lone misstep during the NBA restart where they are 4-1 straight up and ATS, there are some concerning takeaways and trends we’ve seen throughout the season that were reinforced.

The Raptors not having star who can create individual offense against elite defenses is an issue. The Celtics held Toronto to 14 first-quarter points and 37 in the first half. This year, there was no Kawhi Leonard to stop the bleeding.

There are some issues on defense, too. As I said in my Celtics vs Raptors preview, the Raptors and their swarming defense allow the the highest percentage of 3-point attempts (40.7%). Additionally, 13.6% of opponent attempts have come from the corner, the highest expected-value (EV) shot on the floor besides a dunk.

In Friday night’s game, Boston picked apart Toronto's defense with ball movement, making 16 of 46 three-pointers.

The Raptors are 13-15 against teams .500 and above while being 37-4 against teams blow .500. The Raptors beat the teams they’re supposed to beat, but outside of the Los Angeles Lakers, who they match up well against, they’ve struggled with elite and top level competition.

Toronto is a combined 1-9 against the Bucks, Clippers, Celtics, Nuggets and Rockets. The average margin of victory in these nine losses is 13. Although the Raptors have had more than their fair share of injuries this season, which impacted some of these losses, their record and MOV says something about their inability to get it done against top competition.

For the most part, the Raptors aren’t simply losing these games, they’re getting taken in the deep waters and drowned.

We’ll find out soon if that’s just noise and the randomness created by the NBA regular season or it’s the reality of the 2020 Raptors.

Milwaukee Bucks

With the reigning MVP in Giannis Antetokounmpo, the league’s top defense holding teams to 102.3 point per 100 possessions and a net rating of 10, and a 55-15 record, the Milwaukee Bucks are having one of the greatest seasons in NBA history. Before the lockdown they were on a 70-win pace.

Since the restart, things have been different. They sport a 2-3 record with a 0.8 net rating.

Although the Bucks offense still seems to be performing at pre-lockdown levels, their crunch time offense has left a lot to be desired. They blew a 7-point lead and didn't score for the final 2:28 in regulation against the Mavericks. They also blew an 8-point lead in the final 3 minutes against the Rockets.

The Bucks have played 24 clutch minutes and have a -2.4 rating in those situations, according to NBA.com.

But the defense has been the real issue. Their D, which was the best in the league before the restart, is now giving up a whopping 111.9 points per 100 possessions. Similar to the Raptors, the Bucks also give up an alarming number of threes as their defense is designed to limit points in the paint while giving up open three point attempts.

According to cleaningtheglass.com, the Milwaukee Bucks rank third in number of threes given up to opponents at 39.5%.

The Bucks are coming off a loss to the Mavericks in which Luka Doncic picked them apart in the pick-n-roll and dished to open shooters. The Mavericks made 17 threes and started overtime by making three consecutive threes, two of which came from Luka drive and kicks for open three-point field goals.

The Bucks will need to adjust their drop coverage against teams that rely more upon the three pointer, otherwise they could find themselves in the same position as they were in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals when Fred VanVleet, Kyle Lowry and the Toronto Raptors shot them out of a potential championship.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Every line tells a story.

The Bucks announced that Giannis Antetokounmpo will not play in tonight’s game against the Raptors. This line opened at -5.5, jumped to -7 and went back to -5.5 based on the lineup news. It remains to be seen if any other players will sit out, but we currently expect the Bucks to play the rest of their lineup.

The current consensus market line of -5.5 truly tells the story of how oddsmakers see this game. Lowry, VanVleet and Ibaka are questionable for Toronto and I still think we see a solid effort to play a complete game out of the Bucks.

I like the Bucks to win and cover the -5.5 even with Antetokounmpo sitting, however you should continue to monitor injury and lineup news throughout the day (you can check out our NBA Insiders tool for updates).

Pick: Bucks -5.5

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