Wednesday NBA Odds & Picks (Nov. 13): Betting Analysis, DFS Strategies, Injury News, More

This NBA season, I'm trying something new. I'm going to write a daily piece that highlights everything bettors and DFS players need to know for that night's slate. For more on what to expect, read the inaugural piece.

Yesterday I finished 2-7 across spreads, totals and props for -2.62 units. While I don't want to get sucked into the past, I think it's worth reviewing things each day.

The best way to do that is to look at closing line value (CLV), which is just measuring whether the line you bet moved for or against you by closing.

• I bet Blazers +2 and it closed at Blazers -1.5
• I bet Pistons-Heat under 217 and it closed at 214.5

Wow, what a disaster night.

The trend continues: Those games just aren't hitting despite the superior numbers and movement in my favor.

In the Blazers game, I got 3.5 points of CLV, but Portland wasn't able to secure a victory against the Fox-less Kings. I grabbed the Pistons-Heat under after a lot of the injury news — Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose especially — and I lost that one despite 2.5 points of CLV.

It's frustrating, but I guess I should stay positive being on the right side of movement toward the closing number. That's a better predictor of success than win/loss record, but these nights still suck.

If you missed last night's Pistons-Heat game, it was a doozy.

Ouch.

Anyway, enough tilting. Let's get to today's seven-game slate and find some angles. This is a long post, so use the jump links below to skip ahead to whatever you're looking for.

Note: For updates, see the chat at the bottom of this post.

YTD Record:

• Spreads: 20-20-1
• Totals: 11-9
• Moneylines: 5-0
• Props: 28-18

Betting Odds and Analysis

• 7 p.m. ET: Memphis Grizzlies at Charlotte Hornets (-2.5), 221.5
• 7 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic (-2.5), 206.5
• 7:30 p.m. ET: Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics (-8), 230
• 7:30 p.m. ET: LA Clippers at Houston Rockets (-2.5), 234
• 8 p.m. ET: San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves (-1.5), 227
• 10 p.m. ET: Golden State Warriors at LA Lakers (-8), 219
• 10 p.m. ET: Toronto Raptors at Portland Trail Blazers (-2.5), 218

Odds as of Wednesday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).No strings attached. No rollover required.

Let's run through a couple situations for today.

76ers at Magic

The big news of the early afternoon is that Joel Embiid is out with a sore left knee (i.e. injury maintenance and rest). The line jumped quickly from Magic -1 to -2.5, which is where it stands at the time of writing. I'd be surprised if it moved too much from here.

You might be asking: "Embiid is worth only 1.5 points?" The answer is no — he's clearly more valuable than that.

So far on the season, the Sixers have been 10.9 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor vs. off; a massive chunk of that is on the defensive end, where he's in the 96th-percentile of all players.

It's important to note, however, that books are already accounting for uncertainty of him playing in the opening line. They're effectively hedging in the middle, which means it'll move either way once news comes: If Embiid played, it would move toward the Sixers; if not, well, we just saw what happened.

The value of Embiid — probably around five points — is not felt right after the injury; it's already baked in.

I would've had this line around Philly -2 or -2.5 if Embiid was playing a full complement of minutes. Without him, the line is Magic -2.5, which is right in line with Embiid's value of five points, if you agree with that number.

That's all to say I think the value is mostly gone, and because books hedge on situations like these, it's about halved usually. There's still major incentive to follow news and get a couple points of CLV, but it's important to note where the line should be in both situations. Don't blindly bet Magic -2.5 just because you think Embiid is worth five points and it was -1 so it should be at -6 by closing.

I grabbed the Magic at -1, but unfortunately I didn't get the over at 204 once the news hit. I did make a small play on it at 206.5, although I don't think there will be any CLV on that; it should close around this range. I do think there's some underrated upside, though: I've been writing all season that the Magic offense is due for regression and thus likely a bit undervalued. On the Sixers side, they've played at a pace of 97.6 with Embiid on vs. 104.2 with him off.

Wizards at Celtics

Despite losing Kyrie Irving and Al Horford in the offseason, the Celtics currently own the best offensive in the halfcourt, averaging 99.1 points per play. It's impressive, especially considering their shooting numbers aren't out of this world: They're just 15th in eFG%. That said, they've protected the ball at the best rate in the league, and they've pushed the pace in opportune times.

They're a well-disciplined team that has a high offensive ceiling every night.

They are missing Gordon Hayward and likely Daniel Theis tonight, although I think the Hayward injury is probably a bit overrated by the media currently. Don't get me wrong: He's been amazing this season. But his success has been almost entirely due to way unsustainable shooting from the long-2 area.

So while they might be a tad worse expectations-wise without Hayward, they were already going to regress anyway. It's a net push for me, especially since they're taking better shots without him and pushing the pace a bit more.

The Theis injury obviously isn't huge, but it does give more minutes to Enes Kanter, who is definitely more of a scorer at the center spot than a rim protector.

The Wizards haven't been good this season, predictably ranking in the bottom-five of the league with a -6.1 point differential. That said, the offense has largely been fine behind Bradley Beal, ranking in the middle of the pack. The issue has been the defense, which currently sits 29th in the league.

The Celtics should have no problem scoring in this one, and there's also an interesting pace angle here. While neither team runs at the pace of say the Rockets, Bucks or Pelicans, they do run at important times. Boston really pushes the pace off missed shots, whereas the Wizards really push the pace off made field goals.

Given the expectations of this game — Boston is a sizable favorite at home — I would expect an underrated uptempo game.

And finally, this game matches a historically profitable Pro System at Bet Labs, which identifies sharp money on the over/under:

This system is 9-5 to start the season, for what it's worth.

Also, if you're curious, the Grizzlies-Hornets over is also currently a match, and I think that side is intriguing as well. Both teams like to attack the paint and to run on offense out of those situations (paint misses, which theoretically has the point guard, the last line of defense, out of position for transition defense).

Clippers at Rockets

I don't have a bet on this game yet, but let's break it down and what I'm looking for.

This is the biggest game of the day due to the star power and the likelihood that some of those guys won't play. Paul George is currently questionable to make his season debut, while Kawhi Leonard is certainly a rest candidate. The Clips are on the first leg of a back-to-back, and Kawhi has sat out that exact situation twice already this season out of the two opportunities.

There's some thought that the Clips aren't necessarily targeting the front end of the B2B for Kawhi's rest — rather they're resting him the tougher game and playing him the easier one to guarantee a win. Either way, it makes sense that he would be rested tonight in Houston, then suit up tomorrow in New Orleans.

The PG situation is clear, but the goal of this season is to win a championship, and that happens only if Kawhi and George are superstars and have chemistry together in the playoffs. They've already missed a month of potential action, so if PG were to play one and sit one of the B2B, I would imagine the Clips would employ the same strategy of Kawhi (win a game) but also prioritize getting them reps together.

All in all, I'm waiting on news for this game, but I'm fully expecting both players to be absent. When that news comes, I'll be grabbing Rockets -2.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Projected Starting Lineups and Injury News

Note: Info as of 3:30 p.m. ET. For up-to-the-minute lineups and news, see FantasyLabs' matchups page.

Projected Lineups

• Boston Celtics: Kemba Walker – Marcus Smart – Jaylen Brown – Jayson Tatum – Enes Kanter
• Charlotte Hornets: Terry Rozier – Cody Martin – Miles Bridges – PJ Washington – Cody Zeller
• Golden State Warriors: D’Angelo Russell – Jordan Poole – Glenn Robinson III – Draymond Green – Willie Cauley-Stein
• Houston Rockets: Russell Westbrook – James Harden – Ben McLemore – PJ Tucker – Clint Capela
• LA Clippers: Patrick Beverley – Lou Williams – Kawhi Leonard – Patrick Patterson – Ivica Zubac
• LA Lakers: LeBron James – Avery Bradley – Danny Green – Kyle Kuzma – JaVale McGee
• Memphis Grizzlies: Ja Morant – Dillon Brooks – Jae Crowder – Jaren Jackson Jr. – Jonas Valanciunas
• Minnesota Timberwolves: Jeff Teague – Andrew Wiggins – Treveon Graham – Robert Covington – Karl-Anthony Towns
• Orlando Magic: Markelle Fultz – Evan Fournier – Aaron Gordon – Jonathan Isaac – Nikola Vucevic
• Philadelphia 76ers: Ben Simmons – Josh Richardson – Furkan Korkmaz – Tobias Harris – Al Horford
• Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard – CJ McCollum – Rodney Hood – Mario Hezonja – Hassan Whiteside
• San Antonio Spurs: Dejounte Murray – Bryn Forbes – DeMar DeRozan – Trey Lyles – LaMarcus Aldridge
• Toronto Raptors: Fred VanVleet – Norman Powell – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson – Pascal Siakam – Marc Gasol
• Washington Wizards: Isaiah Thomas – Bradley Beal – Troy Brown Jr. – Rui Hachimura – Thomas Bryant

Injury News

• Boston Celtics: Daniel Theis (finger) is doubtful. Javonte Green (hip) is probable. Gordon Hayward (hand) is out indefinitely.
• Charlotte Hornets: Dwayne Bacon (knee) is doubtful.
• Golden State Warriors: Omari Spellman (ankle) is questionable. Damion Lee (hand) is out at least 2 weeks.
• Houston Rockets: Eric Gordon (knee) is out at least a month. Danuel House (back) is doubtful.
• LA Clippers: Landry Shamet (ankle) is out indefinitely. Paul George (shoulders) is questionable. Kawhi Leonard (rest) is TBD.
• LA Lakers: Anthony Davis (shoulder, ribs) is out.
• Memphis Grizzlies: Grayson Allen (ankle) is doubtful.
• Minnesota Timberwolves: Jordan Bell (shoulder) and Shabazz Napier (hamstring) are doubtful. Jeff Teague (illness) is questionable.
• Orlando Magic: Terrence Ross (knee) is not on the injury report.
• Philadelphia 76ers: Joel Embiid (knee) is out. Trey Burke (calf) is questionable.
• Portland Trail Blazers: Rodney Hood (back) is TBD.
• San Antonio Spurs: Nothing new.
• Toronto Raptors: OG Anunoby (eye) is out.
• Washington Wizards: Nothing new.

Player Props

To bet props, I use our FantasyLabs player props tool. Follow me in the Action Network app to see my bets (or go to the bottom of the article), but the more important thing is the tool, which measures our projections for every player vs. current odds in the market and highlights the biggest edges for you.

Player props are an inefficient market, which allows casual bettors (limits are low, so pro bettors aren't incentivized to prioritize them) to grab very +EV bets. That said, the lines move quickly. Our props tool is set up so you can always see whether there's an edge even at the updated numbers throughout the day.

It's one of my favorite tools we offer and should be one of your bookmarked pages if you like making a few extra bucks. Here's a screenshot of what it looks like:

My usual recommendation: Bet unders.

Last season, 10-rated props in our tool hit at a 60.31% rate. But overs hit at a 57.08% rate vs. 66.47% for unders. For 9-rated props, 55.96% of overs were successful bets vs. 62.60% for unders.

As I have noted in the past, unders have more outs: A blowout, an injury, a poor shooting night — all will likely make the under hit. But also, props are less efficient as a market given the low limits, so they're less likely to adjust for things like opponent and pace.

One under I think is intriguing is JaVale McGee's 7.5-rebound total.

This one hit for me yesterday, and I'm going back to the well. He's obviously a good rebounder, but he's playing very few minutes right now. Anthony Davis is out tonight, but we're currently projecting that to be more of a boost for Dwight Howard, Kyle Kuzma and Jared Dudley than for McGee.

The matchup is obviously good against the Warriors, who are 24th in rebound rate, but the important thing is the minutes. He got just 10 last night against the Suns, who play a traditional center most of the time in Aron Baynes, and it seems the market is overrating the theoretical bump to McGee without AD. You can get this prop at plus money as a result.

DFS Values and Strategy

A bunch of the studs are currently projecting as strong plays, but it's hard to ignore The King himself, LeBron James, at $10,700 on DraftKings. He currently leads all players in the slate in projected ceiling, and we're currently pegging him to outpace his salary-based expectations by nearly 10 points.

He'll obviously be without Anthony Davis, who is sitting with every injury possible for a human. AD has yet to miss a game this season, but LeBron obviously has a massive role in this spot, and he's going against a Golden State team that ranks in the top-half in pace but dead last — by a ridiculous four points per 100, mind you — in Defensive Rating.

He's not a fun fade if you make that choice in tournaments, but his ownership should be incredibly high.

There are solid options to pivot to, including James Harden against a potentially Kawhi-less Clips team that's already a little iffy on the defensive end, Karl-Anthony Towns at $9,300 against the Spurs, Pascal Siakam on a mission, etc. D'Angelo Russell has also been a maniac of late, putting up 48.75, 82.75, 48.25 and 50.5 DK points in his last four.

LeBron should be the target without AD, but there are intriguing options to either pair with him or pivot to in GPPs.

Value-wise, there's little shortage. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson should continue to see an outsized role with Serge Ibaka, Kyle Lowry and OG Anunoby all out for the Raptors. Robert Williams should get more minutes with Daniel Theis out. Jaylen Brown has seen a bump without Gordon Hayward. Devonte' Graham has been a revelation in Charlotte, is playing massive minutes and gets a super-fast Memphis team with a bad defense.

Of course, the slate is far from decided at this moment. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George could be out, which means Lou Williams and Co. will pop as values, especially with Landry Shamet also out for the foreseeable future with a Grade 2 high ankle sprain.

As usual, monitor news and make sure to subscribe to our models to see up-to-the-minute projections changes. That will be absolutely critical for this particular slate.

For more DFS analysis and value plays, check out the FantasyLabs NBA models.

My Bets Currently

• Magic -1 (I wouldn't bet past -2.5)
• Over 216.5 in Sixers-Magic (I wouldn't bet past the number)
• Over 229.5 in Wizards-Celtics (I wouldn't bet past 230)

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Follow me in our free app if you want an alert on bets I make. I'll also make updates in the chat below.

Updates and Live Chat

I will put updated thoughts below, whether they're about line movement, injury news, etc. You can also ask questions, which I'll answer as quickly as I can.