In today's NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.
Here are the games on tonight's slate:
- Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets (-2.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
- Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks (-2), 7:30 p.m. ET
- Portland Trail Blazers at Toronto Raptors (-5), 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics (-10), 8 p.m. ET
- New Orleans Pelicans (-4.5) at Phoenix Suns, 9 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Clippers at Sacramento Kings (-4), 10 p.m. ET
- Milwaukee Bucks (-5) at Los Angeles Lakers, 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
All data as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Friday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.
Friday NBA: Most Public Bets
- Kings -4 vs. Clippers: 80% of bets
- Over 228.5 in Blazers-Raptors: 74% of bets
- Bucks -5 at Lakers: 71% of bets
- Raptors -5 vs. Blazers: 71% of bets
- Nets -2.5 vs. Hornets: 70% of bets
Friday NBA: Injuries to Know
In our NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of one of tonight's key injury situations:
- Hawks PF John Collins (illness) is questionable.
Here's a snippet from that piece on Collins:
Collins has been exceptional as of late, averaging 41.2 DraftKings points over his last three contests while logging at least 30 minutes in each game. Even after producing 43.5 DraftKings points on Wednesday, his salary remains exactly the same at $7,000.
While the Bulls are league average in Defensive Rating against opposing power forwards this season, Collins went off for a career-high 35 points in the previous matchup. If he’s able to rebound from his flu-like symptoms, he’ll firmly be in play in all formats.
If Collins is downgraded to out, Omari Spellman and Vince Carter are candidates to see a spike in playing time and potentially enter the starting lineup. Dewayne Dedmon could benefit from a slight uptick in minutes as well, and he’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season.
For all injury news and projected starting lineups, see our daily piece here.
Friday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays
Due to some injury situations, along with new roles for players after the trade deadline, there's a ton of value on today's NBA DFS slate. Right now, there are seven players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +8.0 (which is ridiculous value) on DraftKings:
- Willie Cauley-Stein ($4,500) vs. Clippers: +11.53 Projected Plus/Minus
- Harry Giles ($3,100) vs. Clippers: +11.22 Projected Plus/Minus
- Julius Randle ($8,000) at Suns: +8.54 Projected Plus/Minus
- Patrick Beverley ($4,900) at Kings: +8.36 Projected Plus/Minus
You'll notice two Kings players at the top in Cauley-Stein and Giles, both of whom are standing out due to the injury to fellow big man Marvin Bagley. The rookie forward was playing huge minutes of late, notably playing 37 in his most recent healthy game.
That production should mostly go to the two big men listed above, and they're in an intriguing spot against a Clippers team that allows a ton of rebounds and shots at the rim.
We also have a new metric this season at FantasyLabs called "Leverage Score," which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potential undervalued guaranteed prize pool plays.
One player with a high Leverage Score tonight on DraftKings is Bulls big Lauri Markkanen, who has a high ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus, but should have low ownership.
The sophomore has absolutely dominated of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games by an average of 10.94 DraftKings points. He's been playing huge minutes and has really benefited from the addition of Otto Porter, who has spaced the floor for him.
For more
Friday NBA: Best Player Props
There are currently eight player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% rate.
One of those is Montrezl Harrell to go over his 6.5-rebound prop. He's been a bit up-and-down in that category of late but hit it last game and has a beautiful matchup tonight.
First, the Clippers should be highly motivated tonight against a Kings team that is fighting with them for a playoff berth. Further, the Kings are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, ranking 24th in rebound rate overall and specifically 27th on the defensive glass. With Marvin Bagley out with an injury, that shouldn't improve.
Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.
Friday NBA: Our Experts' Favorite Bets
John Ewing: Suns +5 vs. Pelicans
Phoenix (12-50) is the worst team in the NBA and has been brutal at the ticket window (26-36 ATS). But if there was ever a time to wager on the Suns, it's tonight.
Phoenix had four days off, and late in the season extra rest is key as the grind of the 82-game season wears on the players. History suggests that with fresh legs the Suns are undervalued. The following system has been even more profitable when the team is an underdog like Phoenix.
Ken Barkley: Raptors -5 vs. Blazers
The Blazers' recent road winning streak has now permeated the sports media consciousness. They’re on SportsCenter, they were a topic on PTI yesterday… sports fans kinda know that Portland may be a thing now.
This team beat the Celtics and 76ers on the trip, so it’s not like they've played absolutely no one. But those performances don’t really tell you anything about what THIS game will be like, and I think in this game the price is a little short.
First, even during this better run of play for Portland (the last month), Toronto’s efficiencies are still notably better, and Toronto is playing at home. The Raptors have no recent injury concerns (Fred VanVleet remains out) and have had two days since their last game. They haven’t played a road game since Feb. 9.
There are no indicators that a lackluster performance is forthcoming. Those who are looking at the first meeting between the teams (won by Portland at home in a high-scoring game) would be wise to note that Toronto was playing its third game in four nights on the road, and therefore the conditions in this game are remarkable different. I like Toronto at this number.
Matt LaMarca: Over 237.5 in Clippers-Kings
This matchup should be one of the fastest of the day, with both of these teams ranking in the top 10 in pace this season. The Kings currently rank second with an average of 106.1 possessions per game, while the Clippers’ average of 103.9 possessions per game ranks ninth.
Targeting the over in games between teams that both average at least 103 possessions per game has historically been profitable, going 82-65-1 ATS. It’s been even better this season, going 67-46-1 ATS and netting bettors a +15.7% Return on Investment (ROI).
This will be the fourth matchup this season between these two teams, and they’ve combined for an average of 243 points in their first three meetings.
Matt Moore: Celtics -10 vs. Wizards | Raptors -5 vs. Blazers
Celtics-Wizards: I’ve been tracking pretty intently how the sharp money has done this year with and against certain teams. The Celtics are getting 61% percent of the money compared to just 51% of the bets on this game. When the sharp money is in against Washington, the Wizards are 1-7 ATS this year.
Boston’s been a disaster, I get it, but this Wizards team has real momentum towards a playoff run, which means this is the perfect time for them to melt into a puddle. Kyrie Irving has zero matchup here and Washington’s defense has been atrocious all year and worse since the Otto Porter trade.
Raptors-Blazers: Teams on their third straight road game or more this season are 105-130-1 ATS (44.2%) and 1-4-1 ATS when on a three-game winning streak or more. Is Portland going to seriously go undefeated on an East Coast road trip vs. all the good teams? Is that seriously going to happen? Is Terry Stotts a witch? No, of course he isn’t, so I’m taking Toronto.
Bryan Mears: Over 234.5 in Wizards-Celtics
My favorite Bet Labs Pro System is called "Tickets vs. Money NBA Overs." We have a similar one for spreads, which I detail below. The over/under is pretty simple: It identifies totals in which there's sharp money on the over, and it's been historically profitable in those situations to follow the movement:
This system has done especially well this season, going 59-42-1, good for a 13.6% Return on Investment (ROI). I'll ride that trend with this game, along with the other two matches tonight (see Bet Labs for those).
Friday NBA: Pro System of the Day
At Bet Labs, we have a Pro NBA System called "Tickets vs. Money NBA Spread." It identifies situations in which there's sharp money on the spread.
It has been a profitable system historically, going 383-325-6 (54.1%) since 2015, good for a 5.4% Return on Investment.
It's an especially intriguing system because it's pointing out sharp movement, the spread is moving as a result and the teams are still covering the closing number.
There are two matches tonight:
- Hornets +2.5 at Nets, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Celtics -10 vs. Wizards, 8 p.m. ET
Friday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game
- Hornets at Nets: The Hornets are 12-17 ATS on the road and 12-15-1 as underdogs.
- Bulls at Hawks: The Hawks are 11-18 ATS at home.
- Blazers at Raptors: The Raptors are 18-29-2 ATS as favorites.
- Wizards at Celtics: The over is 22-9 when the Wizards are underdogs.
- Pelicans at Suns: The under is 23-15 in Suns conference games.
- Clippers at Kings: The Kings are 22-8-1 ATS at home and 13-2 as favorites.
- Bucks at Lakers: The Bucks are 35-24-2 ATS this year, including 18-11-2 on the road.
For many more trends on every game, download The Action Network app.
