In today's NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, plus analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.
Here are the games on tonight's slate:
- Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic (-9), 7 p.m. ET
- Toronto Raptors (-6) at Charlotte Hornets, 7 p.m. ET
- San Antonio Spurs (-6.5) at Washington Wizards, 7 p.m. ET
- Boston Celtics (-1) at Indiana Pacers, 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Detroit Pistons at Oklahoma City Thunder (-7), 8 p.m. ET
- Miami Heat (-3.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 p.m. ET
- New York Knicks at Houston Rockets (-18), 8 p.m. ET
- Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks (-4), 8:30 p.m. ET
- Sacramento Kings at Utah Jazz (-10), 9 p.m. ET
- New Orleans Pelicans (-3) at Phoenix Suns, 10 p.m. ET
- Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets (-6.5), 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors (-15.5), 10:30 p.m. ET
- LA Lakers at LA Clippers (-11), 10:30 p.m. ET
All data as of 5 p.m. ET on Friday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.
Friday NBA Most Public Bets
- Pelicans -2.5 at Suns: 88% of bets
- Clippers -11 vs. Lakers: 79%
- Under 224 in Pelicans-Suns: 78%
- Raptors -6 at Hornets: 76%
- Over 224 in Raptors-Hornets: 73%
Friday NBA: Injuries to Know
In our NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of some of tonight's key injury situations.
- Dallas Mavericks: Luka Doncic (thigh), Dwight Powell (rest) and Jalen Brunson (rest) are out. Dorian Finney-Smith (mouth) is probable.
- Phoenix Suns: Devin Booker (ankle), Deandre Ayton (ankle) and Richaun Holmes (ankle) are out.
Here's a snippet from that piece on the Mavericks:
A very shorthanded team could lead to immense value in DFS. In Doncic’s recent two absences, Courtney Lee entered the starting lineup while Trey Burke shouldered the offensive load.
Burke exceeded 30 DraftKings points in each game with a 25.6% usage rate. He led the team with 30 minutes per game and could step into even heavier playing time with both Doncic and Brunson out. At $4,200 on FanDuel, he makes for one of the slate’s strongest plays.
Ryan Broekhoff and Daryl Macon are candidates to enter the rotation depending on who is available. With Powell out, Maxi Kleber and Salah Mejri would benefit from additional minutes. Kleber has recorded a FantasyLabs’ +3.16 DraftKings Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, while Mejri ranks second on the team with 1.01 DraftKings points per minute since the DeAndre Jordan trade, per the NBA On/Off tool.
Both teams have incentive to lose with identical current records of 31-47. According to Tankathon, each team has an 8.3% chance at the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. Opposing point guard Mike Conley (ankle) has already been ruled out, and the game becomes harder to handicap with a plethora of backups playing.
When Doncic has been off the court this season, the Mavs defense has actually improved from a 109.9 Defensive Rating to a 104.4 Defensive Rating. If each team carries a thin rotation with a lack of star power, the under of 215 likely provides the most value.
For all injury news and projected starting lineups, see our daily piece here.
FridayNBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays
Due to some injury situations, along with different roles for players out of the playoff race, there's a ton of value on today's NBA DFS slate.
Right now, there are five players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +7.5 on DraftKings:
- Trey Burke ($4,600) vs. Grizzlies: +14.99 Projected Plus/Minus
- Josh Jackson ($5,900) vs. Pelicans: +11.23 Projected Plus/Minus
- Jamal Crawford ($3,600) vs. Pelicans: +8.51 Projected Plus/Minus
- Troy Daniels ($3,200) vs. Pelicans: +7.58 Projected Plus/Minus
You'll notice a ton of Suns guys at the top of our models today, which is no surprise as almost all of their players are out due to injury. Especially with Booker and Ayton sitting, there's a ton of possessions and shots to go around.
Josh Jackson will likely be the focal point of the offense: Per our injury report, he's led the team with a massive 29.2% usage rate with Booker and Ayton off the floor. Jackson likely won't be efficient, but that matters little in DFS; usage is king, and Jackson and his fellow starters should get a ton at low prices.
For more DFS information, read today's DFS breakdown.
FridayNBA: Best Player Props
There are currently 16 player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% win rate.
One of those is Bradley Beal to go under his 25 point prop.
The Wizards are out of the playoff race, and they've hinted at wanting to either shut Beal down or at least be very cautious with him. He played just 22 minutes in their last game against the Bulls, and we're currently projecting him for just 25 against the Spurs.
There's likely a ton of value in this last week of the season in the props department as teams wholly reshape rotations due to late-season tanking or just being out of the playoffs and not wanting to extend their franchise players. Make sure to check out our tool for more instances of that.
Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.
Friday NBA Staff Favorite Bets
John Ewing: Spurs -6.5 at Wizards
Since 2005, teams facing an opponent with a winning percentage of less than 45% in April have gone 684-649-24 (51.3%) against the spread (ATS), per Bet Labs.
The best strategy for wagering against bad teams in April includes fading them at home.
Home-court advantage is often overrated, even for squads out of the playoff race. Since 2005, road teams facing an opponent with a winning percentage worse than 45% have gone 378-291-10 (56.5%) ATS in April. The optimal approach to fading the league’s worst teams is when they are home underdogs.
The Spurs are a match for this system. San Antonio has moved from -4.5 to -6.5 as of writing (see live odds here). Steam move bet signals, indications of professional action, have been triggered on the Spurs.
Matt LaMarca: Under 213 in Mavs-Grizzlies
The Grizzlies have been the lowest-scoring team in the league this season, so it’s not surprising that the under has gone 43-33-2 in their games this season. The Mavericks haven't been much better offensively, ranking just 21st in points per game, and both of these teams also rank in the bottom 11 in pace.
What makes the under particularly appealing in this game, though, is the sheer volume of injuries on both sides. The Grizzlies are going to be without Mike Conley and Jonas Valanciunas, while the Mavericks are going to be without Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson.
Considering that both of these teams shipped off significant pieces before the trade deadline, that just doesn’t leave a lot of capable NBA scorers on either roster for tonight’s contest.
This game was already bet down from 215 to 213, and it wouldn’t shock me if it dropped even lower before tip-off.
Bryan Mears: Nuggets -260 vs. Blazers
Late in the season, it has been profitable to bet home favorites, especially if those teams are getting sharp money:
Those teams are 145-22 (86.8%) since 2015, good for a 10.2% Return on Investment (ROI). Just this season, they're 43-4 for a robust 15.7% ROI. The Nuggets match on this trend tonight, and they're also motivated for seeding: They're just 1.5 games up on the Rockets and two up on the Blazers.
They lost the head-to-head tiebreaker over Houston, so they'll need to beat them outright. They're up 2-0 on Portland and play the Blazers twice this weekend, although even if it gets even to 2-2, the Nuggets own the tiebreaker. Still, the Blazers could pass the Nuggets based on raw win/loss record, and two victories this weekend would make that a distinct possibility.
Outside of this game, this trend also matches on the Jazz and Magic: two teams also in big battles for playoff entrance and seeding. If you don't want to lay the big numbers and enjoy a parlay, at least you know you have an individual edge on all of these games.
Friday NBA Pro System of the Day
At Bet Labs, we have a Pro NBA System called "Tickets vs. Money NBA Overs." It identifies overs in which there's more money than actual bets, which indicates a beautiful thing — sharp money. It's been profitable to follow that sharp movement.
This system has hit at a 55.1% rate historically, good for a 7.3% Return on Investment (ROI). This season it has especially crushed, with the overs hitting at a 56.0% rate for an 8.8% ROI.
Note that our systems measure against the closing line, which means sharp money is coming in, moving the over up and it's still hitting at a profitable rate. That's a valuable trend to notice as a bettor.
There's one match tonight:
- Over 218.5 in Heat-Wolves, 8 p.m. ET
Friday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game
- Hawks at Magic: The Hawks are 23-16 ATS on the road.
- Raptors at Hornets: The Raptors are 25-36-2 ATS as favorites.
- Spurs at Wizards: The over is 24-15 in Spurs away games.
- Celtics at Pacers: The under is 25-14 in Pacers home games.
- Pistons at Thunder: The Thunder are -12.14 units as moneyline favorites.
- Heat at Wolves: The Heat are 26-12 ATS on the road.
- Knicks at Rockets: The Rockets are 21-16-2 ATS at home.
- Grizzlies at Mavericks: The under is 32-16 in Grizzlies conference games.
- Kings at Jazz: The over is 29-20 in Kings conference games.
- Pelicans at Suns: The under is 24-16 in Suns home games.
- Blazers at Nuggets: The Nuggets are 24-15 ATS at home.
- Cavs at Warriors: The under is 24-15 in Warriors home games.
- Lakers at Clippers: The over is 27-14 when the Clips are favorites.
For many more trends on every game, download The Action Network app.
