In today's NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.
Here are the games on tonight's slate:
- Detroit Pistons (-5) at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 p.m. ET
- Utah Jazz (-6) at Washington Wizards, 7 p.m. ET
- Denver Nuggets at Boston Celtics (-3.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
- New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors (-11.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
- Golden State Warriors (-2.5) at San Antonio Spurs, 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5), 8 p.m. ET
- New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks (-5), 8:30 p.m. ET
- Chicago Bulls at Phoenix Suns (-2), 10 p.m. ET
- Indiana Pacers, 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
All data as of 4 p.m. ET on Monday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.
Monday NBA: Most Public Bets
- Blazers -4.5 vs. Pacers: 79% of bets
- Celtics -3.5 vs. Nuggets: 66% of bets
- Under 227.5 in Jazz-Wizards: 62% of bets
- Warriors -2.5 at Spurs: 64% of bets
- Raptors -11.5 vs. Knicks: 64% of bets
Monday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays
Due to some injury situations, along with new roles for players after the trade deadline, there's a ton of value on today's NBA DFS slate.
Right now, there are four players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +10 (which is ridiculous value) on DraftKings:
- Marc Gasol ($6,200) vs. Knicks: +16.4 Projected Plus/Minus
- Fred VanVleet ($4,000) vs. Knicks: +13.54 Projected Plus/Minus
- Dennis Schroder ($5,100) vs. Heat: +12.87 Projected Plus/Minus
- Josh Jackson ($4,200) vs. Bulls: +12.86 Projected Plus/Minus
You'll notice a lot of Raptors popping in our models today. It's a perfect combination of injury value plus a beautiful matchup against a terrible Knicks team.
Kawhi Leonard (rest) and Serge Ibaka (suspension) are already out, and Kyle Lowry (ankle) is questionable to suit up. That would leave a ton of minutes and usage up for grabs, and the Raptors' replacement guys just aren't appropriately priced for those roles. They'll dominate ownership tonight.
We also have a new metric at FantasyLabs called "Leverage Score," which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potentially undervalued guaranteed prize pool plays.
One player with a high Leverage Score on FanDuel is Pistons big man Andre Drummond, who has a high ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus, but should have low ownership.
The Pistons will be without Blake Griffin today, which means Drummond should be the sole big man down low for a big chunk of the game. Further, he'll match up against the Cavaliers, who rank dead last this season in defensive efficiency and 23rd in rebound rate. He's in a smash spot.
Monday NBA: Best Player Props
There are currently six player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% win rate.
One of those is Dennis Schroder to go over his 14.5 points prop. He's getting the start today with Russell Westbrook serving a suspension, so he and Paul George will largely operate the offense against the Heat.
Per our NBA on/off tool, Schroder has averaged over 33 minutes per game in eight games without Westbrook this season. He's increased his usage rate by 2.1% in those games while averaging 17.5 points per contest. Given those rates, his 14.5 mark is way too low.
Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.
Monday NBA Staff Favorite Bets
Ken Barkley: Under 228 in Bulls-Suns
I can’t believe I’m diving deep into this game, but that's what happens with the NBA in March.
For each team, this is a dreadful fatigue spot. Chicago’s on a West Coast swing, playing on a back-to-back and its third game in four nights on the road. The Suns are on their third game in four nights as well, returning home after two crazy games at Houston and New Orleans.
This part of the busy schedule has hit Phoenix on the injury report, where Tyler Johnson and Kelly Oubre are both questionable. T.J. Warren remains out as well. Oubre in particular is problematic because he plays a ton of minutes and is a relatively high-usage player. His absence or limited play should restrict Phoenix’s offense to some degree.
The rest of the angle on the under here is pretty straightforward. These are not teams that have been particularly adept offensively, nor are they teams that have fast offensive time-of-possession stats in the second half of the season.
In fact, they’re quite average. Some of the Bulls’ scores are gaudy because they are playing teams that are so much better, they can score at will. But in terms of this game, based on each team’s profile you’re going to get an average pace with a lot of very inefficient possessions. That is not necessarily conducive to scoring.
With each team having nothing to play for whatsoever and in such bad rest situations, I think you could also see a lot of minutes going to players who are incredibly unproductive (especially if Oubre sits). Despite that, this total almost demands the game be competitive and played at a relatively fast pace. I don’t buy that we’ll see that here, and I’m taking the under.
Matt LaMarca: Cavs +5 vs. Pistons
The Cavs have undoubtedly been the worst team in basketball this season, but this line is too high.
The Pistons will be without Griffin, and they’ve been significantly worse with Griffin off the court this season. They have a Net Rating of -3.2 points per 100 possessions with Griffin off the court compared to +0.8 with him on. The Pistons are 0-2 with Griffin out of the lineup this season, losing each game by at least 10 points.
The Cavs have also been better since Kevin Love returned to the lineup. They own a Net Rating of +0.2 points per 100 possessions with Love on the court this season, so they should be able to keep this game competitive as long as he’s active. I’ll gladly take five points with the Cavs at home in this spot.
Bryan Mears: Under 227.5 in Jazz-Wizards | Under 228 in Bulls-Suns
One of my favorite systems I've built this year takes advantage of recency bias on over/unders (more on that in today's Pro System of the Day below). The system is incredibly system: When a team scores 130 points or more and then plays at home in the next game, bet the under:
Unders have hit at a 56.6% rate historically, good for a 10.6% Return on Investment (ROI). Just this season it has gone 42-29-2 (59.2%), good for a 14.8% ROI. The two matches today are on Jazz-Wizards and Bulls-Suns.
Monday NBA Pro System of the Day
At Bet Labs, we have a Pro NBA System called "Unders on Good Home Over Team." It's exactly how it sounds: It identifies value on the total by taking advantage of recency bias.
This system has hit at an impressive 57.5% rate historically, good for a 12.2% ROI. If you bet $100 on every match since 2004, you'd be over $10,000 richer. Not too shabby.
There's one match tonight:
- Under 227.5 in Wizards-Jazz, 7 p.m. ET
Monday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game
- Pistons at Cavs: The Pistons are 18-11 ATS as favorites.
- Jazz at Wizards: The over is 23-11 when the Wizards are underdogs.
- Nuggets at Celtics: The Nuggets are 13-19 ATS on the road and 8-10 as dogs.
- Knicks at Raptors: The under is 26-18 in Knicks conference games.
- Warriors at Spurs: The Spurs are 23-12 ATS at home.
- Heat at Thunder: The Heat are 21-11 ATS on the road and as dogs.
- Pelicans at Mavericks: The Mavericks are 22-13 ATS at home.
- Bulls at Suns: The under is 21-13 in Suns home games.
- Pacers at Blazers: The Blazers are 21-13 ATS at home and 25-14 as favorites.
For many more trends on every game, download The Action Network app.
