In today's NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.
Here are the games on tonight's slate:
- Minnesota Timberwolves at Charlotte Hornets (-5.5), 7 p.m. ET
- Denver Nuggets (-8.5) at Washington Wizards, 7 p.m. ET on NBA TV
- Utah Jazz (-8) at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings (-9), 10 p.m. ET
- Detroit Pistons (-7.5) at Phoenix Suns, 10 p.m. ET
- Indiana Pacers at Golden State Warriors (-11), 10:30 p.m. ET
All data as of 4 p.m. ET on Thursday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.
Thursday NBA: Most Public Bets
- Pistons -7 at Suns: 74% of bets
- Nuggets -8.5 at Wizards: 74% of bets
- Over 225.5 in Jazz-Hawks: 69% of bets
- Over 222 in Wolves-Hornets: 62% of bets
- Hornets -5.5 vs. Wolves: 61% of bets
Thursday NBA: Injuries to Know
In our NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of tonight's key injury situations.
- Washington Wizards: Trevor Ariza (groin) is doubtful.
- Indiana Pacers: Darren Collison (quad) is out.
Here's a snippet from that piece on the Pacers:
Since the season-ending injury to Victor Oladipo, Tyreke Evans has played 14 minutes as the primary point guard. All of those minutes transpired Tuesday, and it highlights how much he’s been restricted within the Pacers offense.
Evans is insanely cheap at $3,500 on DraftKings. If Collison is cleared to play, Evans may continue to hold value if Burke grants Evans the freedom he desires to run the second-unit offense. If Collison is sidelined for the second straight game, Evans should instantly elevate to a chalky value option.
The Pacers have gone 7-8 with Collison in the starting lineup since Wesley Matthews debuted last month. Two of those wins occurred with Myles Turner unavailable. When Collison has been off the court over that duration, Evans has led Pacers guards with 0.93 DraftKings points per minute.
The Pacers have ranked 28th in pace over the previous 16 games, per NBA.com stats, and when Evans has been on the court their Offensive Rating has dropped to a team-low 101.3.
In a new role, Evans’ presence should help jumpstart the offense, but the Pacers have struggled with an average of 101.25 points per game over the last eight — a notch below their 104.5 implied total. They’ve gone 3-10 on the road following Oladipo’s injury, and their 103.8 Offensive Rating on the road during that time frame has ranked 29th.
For all injury news and projected starting lineups, see our daily piece here.
Thursday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays
Due to some injury situations, along with new roles for players after the trade deadline, there's a ton of value on today's NBA DFS slate.
Right now, there are four players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +8 (which is ridiculous value) on DraftKings:
- Tyreke Evans ($3,500) at Warriors: +9.95 Projected Plus/Minus
- Troy Brown ($3,100) vs. Nuggets: +9.42 Projected Plus/Minus
- Andre Drummond ($8,700) at Suns: +8.54 Projected Plus/Minus
- Josh Jackson ($4,800) vs. Pistons: +8.10 Projected Plus/Minus
Troy Brown, the Wizards' first-round pick from the 2018 draft, has had to play a larger-than-expected role of late due to all of the injuries and trades this year. He got nearly 30 minutes last game and responded with a near double-double, putting up 26 DraftKings points.
Over his past 10 games, he's exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of them by an average of 5.48 points. He should have an opportunity to do it again tonight with Trevor Ariza doubtful to suit up.
We also have a new metric at FantasyLabs called "Leverage Score," which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potentially undervalued guaranteed prize pool plays.
One player with a high Leverage Score on FanDuel is Nuggets center Nikola Jokic, who has a high ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus, but should have low ownership.
It's tough to figure out when Jokic will go off — he had 59.1 fantasy points last game against the Celtics but just 37.9 the game prior against the Pacers — but that makes him such a great GPP play. His ownership should be low because of his volatility, and that high ceiling is perfect for vaulting up to first.
Thursday NBA: Best Player Props
There are currently five player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% win rate.
One of those is Jeremy Lamb to go over his 5.5 rebound prop. He's been playing fantastic basketball recently and should continue to see an elevated role with Cody Zeller (knee) and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (concussion) unlikely to suit up tonight.
Lamb grabbed 11 boards last game against a tough 76ers team and should have an opportunity to put up another solid game against a Minnesota team missing a lot of its best players. Plus, the Wolves rank 27th this season in defensive rebound rate. There's certainly upside here.
Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.
Tuesday NBA Staff Favorite Bets
John Ewing: Wizards +8.5 vs. Nuggets
The Wizards have lost three of their past four, including one to the Bulls, who are 21 games under .500, on Monday. The Nuggets are challenging the Warriors for the top seed in the West, having won four in a row with an impressive road win over the Celtics on Monday to kick off a four-game road trip.
These teams are heading in opposite directions and bettors know it. More than 70% of spread tickets are on Denver, moving the line from Nuggets -6.5 to -8.5 as of writing (see live odds here).
But here’s the thing: The NBA is pretty random. When a team gets little public support and there's been a big line move, it's been profitable to go against the grain and take the team the market is fading.
It won’t be pretty, but the Wizards are undervalued as a home dog.
Rob Perez: Pacers +11 at Warriors
Does anybody care that the Pacers have the league’s best defense now? No? Nobody? Sounds about right.
Speaking of "caring," are we sure that the Warriors actually care about the 1-seed at stake in the Western Conference? Nobody trusts the Nuggets in the playoffs as far as we can throw them, so every night this Warriors team is a Harvey Dent coin flip with regard to whether they actually try or just punch the time clock.
At home, it’s been the latter all season.
The Warriors are likely headed to their fifth straight finals. They do not care about the Indiana Pacers on a random Thursday night in March. Unless they decide to.
I don’t think this is one of those nights where they feel disrespected and drop a 50-piece on their opponent just to flex. Indiana has been disrespected since the day Victor Oladipo went down and plays with that scorned ex revenge.
Give me the points all day here.
Bryan Mears: Kings -375 vs. Mavericks
Per Bet Labs, favorites in March or April that are getting 60% or more of the moneyline dollars have gone 127-20 (86.4%), good for a 9.9% Return on Investment (ROI) since 2015.
Further, the Mavs are clearly in tank mode, losing nine of their past 10. And the Kings are fighting for a playoff spot and have been awesome at home this season.
If you're scared of laying the -9 after it opened at Kings -6.5 (a ridiculous number), take the moneyline value.
Matt LaMarca: Wolves +5.5 at Hornets
The big news with the Timberwolves is that Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose are expected to miss the rest of the season, but that actually might force them to play a more effective style of basketball.
They’ve been better with Tyus Jones at PG than Teague this season, who doesn’t need to command the basketball as much. That results in more touches for Karl-Anthony Towns, which is obviously a good thing.
They’re still not a particularly good team — they have a Net Rating of 0.0 with Jones on the court — but I don’t see why the Hornets should be favored by 5.5 points in this situation. The Timberwolves have actually been the better team in terms of Net Rating this season, so I’ll grab the 5.5 points with them on the road.
Thursday NBA Pro System of the Day
At Bet Labs, we have a Pro NBA System called "Bad Teams Against the Public." It highlights spots in which poor teams (win rate of 45% or worse) are incredibly contrarian, getting 30% or fewer bets.
It's been incredibly profitable to fade the public in these spots, as system matches have gone 57.1% ATS historically, good for an 11.2% Return on Investment. Just this season those teams have gone 37-14-2 (72.5%) for a 40.2% ROI, covering the spread by 4.47 points per game.
There's one match tonight:
- Wizards +8.5 vs. Nuggets, 7 p.m. ET
Thursday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game
- Wolves at Hornets: The Wolves are 15-22 ATS on the road.
- Nuggets at Wizards: The under is 21-12 in Nuggets away games.
- Jazz at Hawks: The over is 37-28 when the Hawks are underdogs.
- Mavericks at Kings: The Kings are 23-11-2 ATS at home.
- Pistons at Suns: The Pistons are 18-12 ATS as favorites.
- Pacers at Warriors: The Warriors are 12-21-1 ATS at home.
For many more trends on every game, download The Action Network app.
