In today's NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.
Here are the games on tonight's slate:
- New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers (-11), 7 p.m. ET
- Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers (-15), 7 p.m. ET
- San Antonio Spurs (-5) at Dallas Mavericks, 8 p.m. ET
- Milwaukee Bucks (-11) at New Orleans Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET on TNT
- Los Angeles Lakers (-1) at Chicago Bulls, 8 p.m. ET
- Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets (-9), 10:30 p.m. ET on TNT
- Portland Trail Blazers (-2.5) at Los Angeles Clippers, 10:30 p.m. ET
All data as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.
Tuesday NBA: Most Public Bets
- Under 236.5 in Bucks-Pelicans: 77% of bets
- Nuggets -9 vs. Wolves: 76% of bets
- Spurs -5 at Mavericks: 72% of bets
- Under 225 in Lakers-Bulls: 70% of bets
- Bucks -11 at Pelicans: 69% of bets
Tuesday NBA: Injuries to Know
In our NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of two of tonight's key injury situations
- Philadelphia 76ers: Jimmy Butler (rest) is out.
- Minnesota Timberwolves: Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) is probable. Andrew Wiggins (quad) is questionable. Luol Deng (Achilles) is out.
Here's a snippet from that piece on the 76ers:
James Ennis is expected to replace Butler in the starting lineup for his first start as a member of the Sixers. Since joining the team, he has yet to play 20 minutes and has averaged just 0.72 DraftKings points per minute.
Tuesday will mark the first game without Butler since Tobias Harris was acquired. With Butler off the court in that span, Harris and J.J. Redick have benefited from the largest increase in usage rate, per the NBA On/Off tool.
Joel Embiid (knee) returned from an eight-game absence and didn’t miss a beat with 33 points and 12 rebounds in 28 minutes on Sunday. His individual matchup could be enhanced if the Cavs remain thin in the frontcourt with Tristan Thompson (foot) and Larry Nance Jr. (rib) dealing with injuries and Kevin Love resting.
After Tuesday’s game, the Sixers are off until Friday, alleviating any concerns about scaling back minutes for key players. However, the 14.5-point spread could limit playing time for the starters.
For all injury news and projected starting lineups, see our daily piece here.
Tuesday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays
Due to some injury situations, along with new roles for players after the trade deadline, there's a ton of value on today's NBA DFS slate.
Right now, there are five players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +9.0 (which is ridiculous value) on DraftKings:
- Ante Zizic ($3,700) at 76ers: +13.37 Projected Plus/Minus
- Ryan Arcidiacono ($3,300) vs. Lakers: +11.44 Projected Plus/Minus
- Kris Dunn ($5,200) vs. Lakers: +9.53 Projected Plus/Minus
- Moritz Wagner ($3,300) at Bulls: +9.34 Projected Plus/Minus
- Jusuf Nurkic ($7,100) at Clippers: +9.12 Projected Plus/Minus
You'll notice several Bulls players at the top of our models today, which is in part because Zach LaVine is out and they play the Lakers (more on that in the player props section below).
But the guy at the top is Zizic, who I promise is actually a real guy who plays basketball in the NBA. He's near min-priced on DraftKings and should have to play a ton of minutes with Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr. and Tristan Thompson all out against the 76ers.
We also have a new metric this season at FantasyLabs called "Leverage Score," which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potentially undervalued guaranteed prize pool plays.
One player with a high Leverage Score tonight on DraftKings is Spurs guard DeMar DeRozan, who has a high ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus, but should have low ownership.
The Spurs are boring, but DeRozan has still put up fantasy numbers. In fact, he's gone for 44-plus fantasy points in five of his past eight games. He should be able to do some damage against a Dallas squad that ranks dead last in 1) point differential, 2) offensive efficiency and 3) defensive efficiency over the last month.
Tuesday NBA: Best Player Props
There are currently 15 player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% win rate.
One of those is Otto Porterto go over his 5.5-rebound prop. He's been excellent as a wing rebounding lately, averaging nearly 6.5 per game over his last nine games.
There are two other things in his favor today. First, he gets the terrible Lakers, who are throwing in the towel on the season and have been absolutely abysmal defensively lately. Second, he'll be without Zach LaVine, and per our NBA on/off tool he's averaging 8.6 rebounds per 36 minutes without his fellow wing.
Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.
A New Betting Trend to Keep in Mind
We've written about the different revenge narratives you should keep in mind for the NBA. I wanted to put some hard data to it with Bet Labs, however, so let's do just that.
It turns out that there is definitely a profitable revenge angle: Taking underdogs that failed to cover against their next opponent by at least four points and are now getting a minority of the spread bets:
In fact, those teams have covered at a 60.8% clip historically, posting an incredible 18.2% return on investment.
It gets better, though. If we tweak the parameters slightly (didn't cover period), then this first-half revenge system boasts a 23.9% ROI.
Now the bad news.
Here's tonight's match:
- Cavs +15, +9 1H at Sixers, 7 p.m. ET
The Cavs will be without Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr. and Tristan Thompson — arguably their three best players. They've been terrible without those guys — there's a reason this spread is +15, even with Jimmy Butler resting for the Sixers.
Still, the trend is notable for future reference, or even if you want to hold your nose and bet the Cavs tonight.
Tuesday NBA Pro System of the Day
At Bet Labs, we have a Pro NBA System called "Pro Tickets vs. Money Spreads." It identifies games in which there's sharp money — measured as a higher percentage of dollars than bets — on the spread for a team.
This system has hit at a 53.9% rate historically, good for a 5% ROI.
This system is especially intriguing because it's measured against the closing line. That means sharp money is on the spread, it's moving as a result and it's still hitting for a profitable ROI. That's pretty darn impressive.
There are two matches tonight:
- Knicks +11 at Pacers, 7 p.m. ET
- Wolves +9 at Nuggets, 10:30 p.m. ET
Tuesday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game
- Knicks at Pacers: The under is 27-17 in Pacers conference games.
- Cavs at 76ers: The 76ers are 26-9 straight-up and 19-16 ATS at home.
- Spurs at Mavericks: The over is 23-11 in Spurs away games.
- Bucks at Pelicans: The Bucks are 20-13-2 ATS on the road.
- Lakers at Bulls: The Lakers have covered just one of their last 10 games.
- Wolves at Nuggets: The Nuggets are 22-11 ATS at home.
- Blazers at Clippers: The Blazers are 23-14 ATS as favorites.
For many more trends on every game, download The Action Network app.
