In today's NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.
Here are the games on tonight's slate:
- Philadelphia 76ers (-1) at Charlotte Hornets, 7 p.m. ET
- Houston Rockets (-8) at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks (-11), 8 p.m. ET on NBA TV
- Golden State Warriors (-6.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 p.m. ET
- Brooklyn Nets at Sacramento Kings (-3.5), 10 p.m. ET
- Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Clippers (-4.5), 10:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV
All data as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.
Tuesday NBA: Most Public Bets
- Under 230 in Lakers-Bucks: 78% of bets
- Warriors -6.5 at Wolves: 73% of bets
- Bucks -11 vs. Lakers: 72% of bets
- Clippers -4.5 vs. Pacers: 72% of bets
- Sixers -1 at Hornets: 71% of bets
Tuesday NBA: Injuries to Know
In our NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of tonight's key injury situations.
- Philadelphia 76ers: Joel Embiid (rest) is out.
- Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo (ankle), Pau Gasol (ankle), Sterling Brown (wrist), Malcolm Brogdon (heel) and Donte DiVincenzo (heel) are out. Ersan Ilyasova (illness) is probable.
- Los Angeles Lakers: LeBron James (groin) is out.
Here's a snippet from that piece on the 76ers:
Embiid recently missed the first eight games following the All-Star break. The Sixers have notched a 5-7 record sans Embiid this season, and they went 4-4 without him since the All-Star break.
Boban Marjanovic, Jonah Bolden and Amir Johnson all started multiple games in Embiid’s recent absence, and Mike Scott and Ben Simmons also spent time as the nominal center. Marjanovic has been the backup center with Embiid healthy, and he’s played at least 20 minutes four times this season. He profiles as the value option at $4,100 on DraftKings if he starts due to his per-minute production.
Simmons averaged a team-high 46.86 FanDuel points per game in the eight-game stretch Embiid missed post-All-Star break, per the Trends tool. When Embiid has been off the court over the previous month, Simmons has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute, per the NBA On/Off tool. Simmons also averaged 50.5 DraftKings points in the first three games against the Hornets this season — all with Embiid in the lineup.
For all injury news and projected starting lineups, see our daily piece here.
Tuesday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays
Due to some injury situations, along with new roles for players after the trade deadline, there's a ton of value on today's NBA DFS slate.
Right now, there are four players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +10 (which is ridiculous value) on DraftKings:
- Eric Bledsoe ($6,400) vs. Lakers: +12.42 Projected Plus/Minus
- Nikola Mirotic ($4,800) vs. Lakers: +11.40 Projected Plus/Minus
- Jarrett Allen ($5,500) at Kings: +10.30 Projected Plus/Minus
- Khris Middleton ($4,200) vs. Lakers: +10.19 Projected Plus/Minus
ALL THE BUCKS.
In fact, the two guys right below Middleton in value tonight are more Bucks in Pat Connaughton and Ersan Ilyasova. The reason is because of the injury situation in this game: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Malcolm Brogdon, Pau Gasol, Sterling Brown and Donte DiVincenzo are all out.
A note from our news feed:
When Antetokounmpo and Brogdon have been off the court since the trade deadline, Khris Middleton has led the Bucks with a 35.9% usage rate and 1.25 DraftKings points per minute. He and Eric Bledsoe are locks in cash games.
We also have a new metric at FantasyLabs called "Leverage Score," which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potentially undervalued guaranteed prize pool plays.
One player with a high Leverage Score on DraftKings is 76ers forward Ben Simmons, who has a high ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus, but should have low ownership.
In his last two meetings against the Hornets, Simmons put up near triple-doubles in each, accumulating 53.75 and 61.5 DraftKings points. And that was with Joel Embiid, who is resting tonight. In 12 games without his teammate this season, Simmons has exceeded salary-based expectations by an average of 5.8 points per game.
Tuesday NBA: Best Player Props
There are currently eight player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% win rate.
Here's one intriguing prop tonight, courtesy of our own John Ewing:
- Kyle Kuzma over 17.5 points
LeBron is out tonight vs. the Bucks. This season when LeBron has not played, Kuzma has averaged 18.4 attempts and 21.4 points per game. Those totals are up from his full season average of 14.3 shots and 17.2 points. According to our Player Props Tool, Kuzma is projected to score 21.8 points in Milwaukee on Tuesday.
Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.
Some Second-Half Systems to Keep in Mind
As I wrote more extensively here, when underdogs are at home and winning at halftime, it has been profitable to bet their moneyline in the second half. It seems like it would be wise to bet on regression, but that hasn't been true, as the market has overreacted:
That said, it's still profitable to take favorites to cover the second-half spread when they're down, notably when they're down huge — 14 points or more — and the first half went over the first-half over/under:
These may seem like mutually exclusive trends, but they aren't. First, one's a moneyline trend and the other is a spread trend. And more importantly, it seems the halftime margin is of importance.
The moneyline trend is about dogs that are up between three and 16 points, whereas the second, spread trend is when favorites are down huge — over 14 points.
These are just a few of the detailed nuances you can research (and find betting value doing so) using our Bet Labs software.
Tuesday NBA Pro System of the Day
At Bet Labs, we have a Pro NBA System called "Bad Teams Against the Public." It highlights spots in which poor teams (win rate of 45% or worse) are incredibly contrarian, getting 30% or fewer bets.
It has been incredibly profitable to fade the public in these spots, as system matches have gone 57.0% ATS historically, good for a 11.0% Return on Investment. Just this season those teams have gone 35-14-2 (71.4) for a 38.0% ROI, covering the spread by 4.32 points per game.
There's one match tonight:
- Hornets +1 vs. 76ers, 7 p.m. ET
Tuesday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game
- 76ers at Hornets: The over is 20-13 when the Hornets are underdogs.
- Rockets at Hawks: The Rockets are 13-20-1 ATS on the road.
- Lakers at Bucks: The under is 41-29 in Lakers games this year.
- Warriors at Wolves: The Warriors are 24-37-1 ATS as favorites.
- Nets at Kings: The Kings are 23-10-2 ATS at home.
- Pacers at Clippers: The under is 43-28 in Pacers games this year.
For many more trends on every game, download The Action Network app.
