In today's NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.
Here are the games on tonight's slate:
- Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets (-3), 7:30 p.m. ET
- Dallas Mavericks at Washington Wizards (-5.5), 7 p.m. ET
- Minnesota Timberwolves at Detroit Pistons (-5), 8:30 p.m. ET
- San Antonio Spurs (-6) at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets (-9.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
- Utah Jazz (-4.5) at New Orleans Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET
- Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5) at Chicago Bulls, 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
- New York Knicks at Phoenix Suns (-4), 9 p.m. ET
- Boston Celtics (-3.5) at Sacramento Kings, 10 p.m. ET
- Denver Nuggets (-5.5) at Los Angeles Lakers, 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
All data as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.
Wednesday NBA: Most Public Bets
- Over 223.5 in Wolves-Pistons: 77% of bets
- Jazz -4.5 at Pelicans: 75% of bets
- Nuggets -5.5 at Lakers: 70% of bets
- Pistons -5 vs. Wolves: 68% of bets
- Over 229.5 in Celtics-Kings: 67% of bets
Wednesday NBA: Injuries to Know
In our NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of two of tonight's key injury situations
- Los Angeles Lakers: Kyle Kuzma (ankle) is out. Brandon Ingram (shoulder) is questionable.
- Atlanta Hawks: Dewayne Dedmon (knee) is doubtful. John Collins (illness) is probable.
Here's a snippet from that piece on the Lakers:
Los Angeles has only five wins in its past 18 games and is currently 5.5 games outside of the playoff picture in the West.
On the heels of a third consecutive loss, coach Luke Walton revealed that he had only eight bodies available for on-court practice on Tuesday. In addition to the injured players, LeBron James, Rajon Rondo, and Josh Hart were held out of practice.
JaVale McGee is a candidate to remain in the starting lineup with Kuzma sidelined, while Josh Hart could also start if Ingram is unable to play. Mike Muscala should benefit from an uptick in playing time, but has failed to record 15 DraftKings points in a single game since joining the Lakers.
Rondo and James have been the primary cash game options lately, but Rondo’s salary increased by 23% on FanDuel to $7,500 to push him out of cash game consideration. However, he remains affordable on DK at $6,000 and he has reached at least 48 DK points in three of his past four games.
James has provided a FantasyLabs +6.71 DK Plus/Minus over his past 10 games and offers a high floor due to obscene minutes and increased rates. With Kuzma and Lonzo Ball (ankle) off the court this season, James has benefitted from a +4.4% usage rate increase and averages a team-high 1.46 DK points per minute, per our NBA On/Off tool.
For all injury news and projected starting lineups, see our daily piece here.
Wednesday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays
Due to some injury situations, along with new roles for players after the trade deadline, there's a ton of value on today's NBA DFS slate.
Right now, there are seven players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +8.5 (which is ridiculous value) on DraftKings:
- Alex Len ($4,500) vs. Spurs: +9.53 Projected Plus/Minus
- Frank Kaminsky ($3,200) vs. Heat: +9.18 Projected Plus/Minus
- Dwight Powell ($5,900) at Wizards: +8.73 Projected Plus/Minus
- Ben Simmons ($8,900) at Bulls: +8.56 Projected Plus/Minus
It's not often that a high-priced stud is one of the slate's best pure values, but that's the case with Sixers forward Ben Simmons tonight.
The sophomore star has crushed value in his last three games without teammate Joel Embiid, going for 50.8, 66.3 and 54.3 DraftKings points. It's hard to imagine him slowing down tonight against a Bulls squad that ranks 25th defensively this year and has shown life offensively after the Otto Porter trade. Simmons in a shootout without Embiid equals fantasy gold.
We also have a new metric this season at FantasyLabs called "Leverage Score," which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potentially undervalued guaranteed prize pool plays.
One player with a high Leverage Score tonight on DraftKings is Powell's teammate, Karl-Anthony Towns, who has a high ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus, but should have low ownership.
Towns has been on one lately, exceeding value in eight of his last 10 outings by an average of 7.33 DraftKings points. He's gone over 55 points in each of his last five, and in three of those he exceeded 70 fantasy points. Some users will be scared off by his elevated $10,800 price tag, but the upside remains massive.
Wednesday NBA: Best Player Props
There are currently 10 player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% rate.
One of those is Dwight Powellto go over his 7.5-rebound prop. He's been playing huge minutes lately, going 30 or more in each of his last five games.
But tonight, it's all about the matchup. He gets a Washington Wizards squad that ranks 29th in rebound rate this year. They're bad on both ends of floor, sitting 28th in offensive rebound rate and 29th on the defensive end. At 30-plus minutes as the main big man, he has a good chance of hitting this over.
Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.
Wednesday NBA: Our Experts' Favorite Bets
Ken Barkley: Celtics -2.5 at Kings, Under 229
Can the Celtics finally be trusted? I actually have no idea, and I don’t think anyone does. What I do know is that they’re a completely healthy team with as much talent as anyone, and they just played their best game of the season.
Sure, there are plenty of red flags looking at season-long stuff — their sub-.500 road record and their propensity to follow up positive performances with negative ones, to name a few — but I’m not sure any of that is really predictive with a team like this.
The Celtics are such such a hot-and-cold team I’m not sure you can ever look backwards with them to gain any insight in what will happen next. We just know the talent is there, and that’s about it.
Meanwhile, since the All-Star break (and with Marvin Bagley hurt), Sacramento’s defense has held up but its offense has really cratered. Against a full-strength Boston team, the Kings are going to have a ton of trouble scoring in this game.
Boston’s depth would normally help on the second night of a back-to-back, but only Kyrie Irving played 30 minutes last night, so it’s not like fatigue is a huge issue anyway. The Kings may provide more resistance defensively, and the Celtics probably won’t shoot the way they did last night, but even if it’s a little clunkier offensively, this number is still a little short for me.
Matt LaMarca: Hawks +6 vs. Spurs, Over 235
I’m going to continue to ride the Hawks down the stretch. They’ve been playing some of their best basketball recently, scoring at least 111 points in each of their seven games since the All-Star break.
Meanwhile, the Spurs have been an abomination defensively when playing on the road, ranking 29th in defensive efficiency and allowing 113.3 points per 100 possessions. Unsurprisingly, they have not fared well as a road favorite, owning just a 4-7 record ATS this season.
The Hawks have lost only one game by more than seven points since the All-Star break, and that was on the road against a tough Houston squad. I think they do more than enough offensively to cover the spread, and I’d take a look at the over on 235 points as well.
John Ewing: LeBron James under 9.5 assists
The Lakers' season is over. LA has less than a 0.1% chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN. After the loss to the Clippers, there has been talk of resting or limiting LeBron's minutes.
Motivation is going to be a factor for all of the Lakers, who will likely be without Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma and Brandon Ingram tonight — three of the team's top-five scorers. With no one to score and no reason to try, it will be difficult for LeBron to tally a high assist total tonight.
Bryan Mears: Nets -420 ML vs. Cavs
Late in the season, home favorites receiving sharp money — measured as more moneyline dollars than bets — have been undervalued by the market.
I know it's no shock to say the Nets should beat the Cavs at home, but #TrustTheSystem. A 8.1% ROI isn't too shabby. Also, if it's your thing, the Pistons also match tonight with a more-reasonable -200 number.
Wednesday NBA Pro System of the Day
At Bet Labs, we have a Pro NBA System called "Fade Tanking Teams." Historically, it has been valuable to bet against the NBA's worst teams late in the season, especially when those teams are at home:
This system has hit at a 57.3% rate ATS since the 2004-05 season, good for a 11.7% Return on Investment (ROI).
That said, this will be an intriguing system to monitor this season, which is the first with the new lottery rules. I'm unsure it will really stop tanking — what else do the Knicks have to play for other than making sure they're in the running for the No. 1 pick? — but it has gone just 6-9 this season. It's still early.
Anyway, there are two matches tonight:
- Spurs -6 at Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Sixers -4.5 at Bulls, 8 p.m. ET
Wednesday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game
- Heat at Hornets: The Heat are 20-11 ATS on the road and 20-10-1 as underdogs.
- Mavericks at Wizards: The over is 9-1 in the Wizards' last 10 and 19-10 in home games this year.
- Wolves at Pistons: The over is 8-2 in the Wolves' last 10 games.
- Spurs at Hawks: The over is 23-10 in Spurs away games.
- Cavs at Nets: The Nets are 17-4 straight-up and 12-9 ATS as favorites.
- Jazz at Pelicans: The Pels are 19-14-1 ATS as dogs and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 overall.
- 76ers at Bulls: The Bulls are 12-20 ATS at home.
- Knicks at Suns: The Suns are 1-3 ATS as favorites. The over is 3-1 in those games.
- Celtics at Kings: The Kings are 22-10-1 ATS at home.
- Nuggets at Lakers: The under is 22-10 in Lakers home games.
For many more trends on every game, download The Action Network app.
