We've got seven matchups on the NBA docket tonight, with the top teams in the East (Celtics) and West (Lakers) in action.
Our NBA crew details how they are betting tonight’s slate with picks on three specific games:
- 7:30 p.m. ET: Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics
- 8 p.m. ET: San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves
- 10 p.m. ET: Toronto Raptors at Portland Trail Blazers
Odds as of Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).No strings attached. No rollover required.
John Ewing: Wizards at Celtics
- Spread: Celtics -8.5
- Over/Under: 229.5
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Rui Hachimura has exceeded expectations in Washington. The rookie is averaging 13.6 points and 6.1 rebounds in 28.5 minutes for the Wizards this season. He is now +900, fourth best odds at FanDuel, to win NBA Rookie of the Year.
Hachimura has a nice matchup against the Celtics on Wednesday. Boston has the best record in the league but is light on bigs, which should benefit anyone wagering on his player props.
The Japanese-born forward's over/under for rebounds tonight is 5.5. The C's are 29th in the NBA in rebound percentage (47.7%). According to the FantasyLabs player prop tool, Hachimura is projected to have 7.7 rebounds.
This prop has received a bet quality rating of 10 out of 10. The over on Hachimura's rebound prop is a smart bet.
The PICK: Hachimura Over 5.5 rebounds
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Wob: Spurs at Timberwolves
- Spread: T-Wolves -1.5
- Over/Under: 227.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
I must be missing something here because I damn well know they didn’t just hang a 227 on these two mid-range loving teams. First thing I made sure before locking this in was pace, which the teams are fifth- and 13th-fastest respectively.
That’s the explanation for the number, but a further dive into it reveals despite giving up the sixth-most points per game in the league, the Wolves’ defensive rating is not consistent with this apparent inefficiency as they are only allowing 106.6 points per 100 possessions this season.
The explanation for this is the Wolves have participated in two high-scoring overtime affairs, affecting their box score differently than the advanced analytics, which I believe have skewed this total way above where it should be.
The Spurs rank 10th in offensive efficiency and don’t have any interest in a track meet. I don’t trust Wiggins to stay on fire, and certainly don’t trust the Spurs to stop shooting mid-range jumpers. Under all day here.
The PICK: UNDER 227.5
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Brandon Anderson: Raptors at Trail Blazers
- Spread: Blazers -2.5
- Over/Under: 218
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
The Blazers have lost five of their past six, including games at Golden State and Sacramento. That drops them to 4-7 in the loaded West, and now they get a single, solitary home game before hitting the road for seven straight.
Toronto is missing Kyle Lowry, OG Anunoby, and Serge Ibaka. And, because you’re going to bring up the whole “heart of a champion” thing, that team is also missing Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green. Pascal Siakam has been awesome, but you know who has been even better? Damian Lillard.
Lillard is averaging 32.5 points a game on 50/39/91 shooting, and he’s leading the league in minutes at 38.5 per game. The fact that the Blazers are losing despite Dame playing as well as he has with such a heavy minutes load could be big trouble for Portland long-term. But there’s just no way he’s letting this season get away in front of a home crowd with the Toronto M.A.S.H. unit in town.
Lillard will find a way. Hopefully by at least three, though this line has dropped half a point, so wait until closer to tip and you might nab it at -2.
The PICK: Blazers -2.5
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