The NBA season is long. The 82-game schedule is a slog that includes back-to-backs and road trips that crisscross the country. There is no reset button when the playoffs tip, which means all of those games take a toll on the players in the postseason.
Exhaustion becomes a factor and the longer a series goes, the more likely that wear and tear impacts a game. But while this is an issue for players, it is an opportunity for gamblers.
How can bettors profit from fatigue in the NBA Playoffs? I’ve identified a winning betting system with a match for Saturday's Raptors-Bucks Game 6 (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT).
Since 2005, 50% or more of bets have been placed on the over in 90% of NBA postseason games. Unfortunately for the public, which loves cheering for points, the over has gone 596-633-18 (48.5%) during that time. A $100 bettor wagering on every over would be down $6,195.
Betting the under in the playoffs has been the sharp play and there is a clear difference in value between games early and late in a series:
As a series progresses teams become more familiar with each other. Defensive adjustments are made and player fatigue becomes an issue, all of which contribute to lower-scoring outcomes.
Since 2005, betting the under in Games 6 and 7 of a playoff series has gone 98-71 (58%) according to Bet Labs. A $100 bettor following this strategy has returned a profit of $2,168.
Other trends to know for this betting strategy:
- If the total decreases or stays the same the under has gone 68-46 (59.6%).
- If a majority of bets are placed on the over the under improves to 90-60 (60.0%, see below).
The Raptors-Bucks Game 6 over/under opened 214. Despite the public betting the over the total has decreased to 213. History suggests casual bettors will be disappointed as these games tend to go under.
