In a recent Twitter conversation with my colleague Matt Moore, Kevin Durant suggested NBA players should ignore analytics and just hoop off feel. This approach works for Durant because he is a generational talent but is less successful for a player like Zach LaVine.
Many bettors ignore the numbers too and place wagers based on their gut. Unless you are the KD of sports betting, this strategy won’t work for you.
Smart bettors embrace data, and with a new season upon us it is time to review a few of our favorite NBA betting systems. By following these strategies based on the numbers, bettors can gain an edge on the sportsbooks.
Each system below can be found in the Think Tank and is available to Action PRO users.
Under on Good Home Over Team
Being a contrarian bettor often means going against the grain and betting that recent trends will not continue. For example, let’s say that an NBA team consistently goes over the total when playing at home. Gamblers will remember this trend and likely wager on the over the next time it plays at home. Oddsmakers will anticipate this reaction and increase the over/under line.
Thus, contrarian gamblers can find an edge by betting the under on these inflated odds. Since 2005, when a team has gone over the total in home games nearly 60% of the time, betting the under is a profitable 930-790-21 (54%).
There is more value following this strategy if both teams playing are on short rest (tired legs) and the line is trending down (indication of smart money on the under).
Fade Public, Line on Move
In the NBA, as in other sports, when there is lopsided betting action and a big line movement it is often caused by a piece of information such as an injury update. Last fall, for example, prior to a matchup between the Thunder and Rockets, Russell Westbrook (ankle) was ruled out.
The Thunder opened as three-point underdogs at home but with Westbrook out the line shifted to Rockets -5. At game time, 71% of spread tickets were on Houston. To the dismay of casual bettors, Paul George & Co. upset the Rockets, 98-80.
Sometimes the best systems are the simplest. It has been profitable in the NBA to wager against lopsided betting action and big line movement like we saw in Thunder-Rockets. Bettors following this system have returned a profit of 61.76 units since 2005.
Reverse Line Movement Unders
Reverse line movement — when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages — is an indication of professional money being wagered. It has been profitable to follow reverse line movement in the NBA.
Since 2005, when 60% or more tickets are on the over but the total decreases by one or more points, the under has gone 1,488-1,294-35 (53.5%). Following the reverse line movement is most profitable in games featuring divisional opponents, as they tend to be more competitive because of the increased familiarity.
Since 2005, NBA bettors following this system have won 58.7% of their wagers returning a profit of $8,253 for a $100 bettor.
