Vacations are supposed to leave you feeling rested. But often we feel drained after time off. Whether it is jet lag or just the idea of going back to work, it is easy to feel exhausted after a vacation.
NBA players are just like us. My theory: After a week off, players suffer from a vacation hangover.
Overs After the All-Star Break
When NBA players aren’t giving 100 percent, it shows on the defensive end of the court. A lack of hustle could lead to increased scoring and overs being more profitable.
To test this idea, I used the Bet Labs database to examine every game played in the first two days after the All-Star break since 2005. In a team’s first game back, when they are most likely to be going through the motions, the over has gone 154-126-5 (55.0%).
These are good results with a nice sample size, but wagering on every over is not the optimal strategy.
At the break, there are 16 teams below .500. Most of these squads are longshots to make the playoffs. Bad teams with nothing to play for create a perfect storm for bettors.
The over when two teams with losing records play the first two days after the All-Star break has gone 54-25-1 (68.4%) since 2005.
Mailing It In
On Friday there are two games featuring teams with losing records going head-to-head. Over bettors that buy into the vacation hangover narrative should target these matchups:
- Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Washington Wizards (7 p.m. ET, Friday)
- New Orleans Pelicans vs. Portland Trail Blazers (10:30 p.m. ET, Friday)
