It's the season to get buckets. The NBA is back with its usual five-game slate and I've put together a full charcuterie board of picks for you to pick at while you wait to find out if you've been naughty or nice this season. Let's dive in!
Spurs vs. Knicks
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -115 | 223.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -105 | 223.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
Wemby takes Manhattan! The Alien comes to New York for a Christmas Day battle in the Big Apple against a giant KAT and some very fun Pants. (No, for real, their name is "The Pants.")
Except the Spurs are not in this weight class. The Knicks are a Tier 2 contender. If you said "Boston doesn't make the Finals," I would think it's 50/50 between the Cavaliers and Knicks. The Spurs are a maybe-play-in team, with a middling offense and middling defense.
The Knicks are getting their defense together, 9th in non-garbage-time defense the last two weeks. They play their starters in staggered lineups, so they can take more advantage of the non-Wembanyama minutes.
I make this game Knicks -12 and the total 228.4.
This reeks of a hyped matchup with a very fun player who is not ready, whose team is not ready, and who will get obliterated by a dominant veteran contender.
The over in Christmas games is 16-9 (64%) in the last five years. On Buckets, I was looking for the Knicks team total over, the Spurs team total under, and the combined over. But now after the total moved down, I can't get in on Spurs under 106.5. I'll just play the over.
However… it's Christmas and I do believe it's important to have fun on the holidays. So we're going to look for ways to bet on a 5X5 for Wemby (5+ points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks) in various ways. We'll update here when I find the right one.
PICK: KNICKS -9.5, OVER 223.5
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 223 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 223 -110o / -110u | -192 |
The Wolves are in the Bad Place.
There's a lot to unpack with Minnesota. How chemistry is delicate and fickle. How changing out even a flawed player for another can destroy the formula that made you great. How expectations are the thief of joy. How on-ball versatility doesn't make up for lineup versatility.
But, if we're going to be honest, it's pretty simple: the Timberwolves can't space the floor with Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels playing together. With McDaniels on the floor, the Wolves take just over 38 3-pointers per 100 possessions. Without him, that jumps to over 41. That's a massive difference because it impacts how teams defend Anthony Edwards, which means a clogged paint and an inability to get to the rim.
This team hates playing together. And I'm all for a buy-low spot, but you have to be sure the team has hit rock bottom and is on its way back up. After Minnesota's miserable loss to the Hawks on Monday, I can't be sure the Wolves have found the bottom.
Conversely, this Mavericks team is remarkably consistent. As long as they're not in a 3-point game, they will beat every team worse than them and compete with the teams at or above their station. They are deep, disciplined, and effective, with multiple variations of the same players in lineups. They don't throw a different look at you, they just throw 10 versions of the same one at you with all good players.
Unfortunately, I make this game right on the side and total. The reality is that the Wolves probably aren't as bad as they've been playing, but Dallas is as good as the market thinks, if not better.
I lean Dallas and under, but would only bet it at Mavs -3.5 or better and a total below 222.
PICK: No play
76ers vs. Celtics
| 76ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -115 | 222 -105o / -115u | +370 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -105 | 222 -105o / -115u | -485 |
Joel Embiid was ejected Monday night for berating an official. Of course he was. Are we assuming that he won't be suspended and will be available for this game?
To be honest, with Sixers games this season I've just taken the team out of the NBA pile of apples, put them in a plastic container, and left them on the kitchen counter. I don't know what to do with them and don't want them spoiling the rest of the food.
Unfortunately for the Sixers, they don't get to catch the Celtics napping. The Magic did that Monday with Jayson Tatum out due to illness, as they pulled off the upset. In the Mazzulla era in the regular season, Boston is 36-13 SU and 27-21-1 (56%) ATS off a loss. They'll be motivated here.
Still, I lean towards the Sixers. Boston is a wretched 5-10 ATS team at home. They have the 14th-ranked defense at home compared to the 2nd-best on the road. That opens the door for the Sixers to burst through.
I'm not going to bet the Sixers on the spread, I'll put them in a moneylineparlay below. I do love the over based on the over trend and my model making this 226.2 even with the Sixers being without their main offensive weapons for most of the season.
PICK: OVER 221.5
Lakers vs. Warriors
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 225 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 225 -110o / -110u | -192 |
Love this spot for the Lakers. They have athleticism and offense and their defense has been better. They got snakebit by turnovers vs. the Pistons on Monday and the Lakers are 13-13 SU, 15-11 ATS off a loss with AD and LeBron in the lineup.
The Lakers know who they are, they just don't know how to play consistently. The Warriors have no clue who they are and consistently play like a team that doesn't.
I make this pick 'em, Warriors slight juiced. This is a game LeBron will get up for (and so will the Warriors) and the Lakers' offense might be the best unit on the court. Anthony Davis is a great counter to both the Warriors' interior defense and defending against Jonathan Kuminga's drives.
I'll load up on the Lakers ML and alt spread, and I'll sprinkle a longshot on Lakers-Warriors overtime (+1500 ) as well.
PICKS: Sixers-Lakers ML parlay (+1122 DraftKings), Lakers ML +160, Lakers alt spread -3.5 (+220, DraftKings), Lakers-Warriors Overtime (YES) +1500 (DraftKings)
Nuggets vs. Suns
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 225.5 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 225.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
The Suns are the third of the Western Conference teams in the Bad Place.
They have completely fallen off defensively, Devin Booker is out with a groin injury, and they seem to have zero locker room or on-court leadership right now. It's sour.
So I'll lay less than a possession with Denver. I wish Denver had lost on the back-to-back Monday vs. the Suns in Denver; that would make this a great bet. As it is, it's only good, as I make this Denver (-8) currently. The trick with Denver is they don't look good, it doesn't feel like they're a good team, and they look pretty miserable together a lot of the time, but they're still winning, and by margin a lot.
The Nuggets are one of the worst first-half teams in basketball and nearly trailed at half again Monday before blowing out the Suns second-half. I'm going to follow that trend again and bet Suns 1H ML, and Nuggets full-game ML.
PICKS: Nuggets -1.5, Suns 1H ML, Nuggets 1H ML +400 (DraftKings)