It should come as no surprise that the Celtics are going to win the East. They were 9-1 favorites before their series with the Pacers, and while Indiana had its chances in Game 1, it blew it. And after Boston clocked the Pacers in Game 2, Tyrese Haliburton came down with an injury to his hamstring.
You know, because not enough things had gone Boston's way this postseason.
But if we can read the markets right, that certainty comes with an opportunity. The key is to translate that certainty to less certain markets.
Let's start with Conference Finals MVP.
Eastern Conference Finals MVP
Jayson Tatum remains the favorite at DraftKings to win ECF MVP at -130. Jaylen Brown is at +120, with Jrue Holiday +1500.
Tatum put up 36 points on 26 shots in Game 1, with the majority coming in OT. But he also had a key turnover that almost cost the Celtics the game, and his fadeaway shot off an offensive rebound also almost cost them the game.
Brown, on the other hand, poured in 26 in Game 1 and 40 in Game 2. He's hit timely shots, held up the non-Tatum minutes and has looked like the best player.
Brown also forced the key turnover on Haliburton in Game 1 and hit the miracle shot for the tie to force overtime.
Simply put, there's no reason to think Brown should be behind Tatum.
I don't know that +120 (45% implied) is a drastically wrong number, but given that Boston is halfway to the Finals and there may not be enough games left in this series for Tatum to re-establish hold over the stats leaderboard, there's value there.
Brown has looked the most comfortable, not just in this series, but really the whole season, despite Tatum's better stats.
The problem is that the best player on the team almost always wins these awards. For example, Jimmy Butler won over Caleb Martin last year. But Martin is a role player and Brown is a former All-NBA player (who was snubbed this year). Simply put, they're not the same.
Brown has the pedigree to win.
So that's the first bet: Brown +120 to win ECF MVP.
Now we can have some fun with this.
DraftKings lets you parlay (with tighter limits) ECF MVP and WCF MVP.
Your options:
- Brown ECF MVP + Anthony Edwards WCF MVP: +560
- Brown ECF MVP + Luka Doncic WCF MVP: +303
- Brown ECF MVP + Karl-Anthony Towns WCF MVP: +4080
- Brown ECF MVP + Kyrie Irving WCF MVP: +1990
Pretty good prices.
Western Conference Finals MVP
You can guide this by your thinking on the WCF.
If you think the Wolves just lost Game 1 because they were coming off a Game 7 and will steady themselves, this is a great opportunity to bet Edwards with a sprinkle on Towns before Game 2.
Towns took 20 shots in Game 1, hitting just six of them. If he gets his shot back — the strongest part of his game — Towns can nab this; the Mavericks have fewer matchups for Towns than Edwards.
On the other hand, Edwards is clearly their best player and the idea that the Wolves can't win unless he plays well is sound.
I have given out the Mavericks for the series, Mavericks in Game 1 and Mavericks -1.5 on the series spread on "BUCKETS" and in our live shows, so I've clearly made my position known on who wins.
Irving was sensational in the first half of Game 1, but so much of that seemed like the Wolves being unaccustomed to him. They settled down and forced him into 1-of-9 shooting in the second half.
Doncic, on the other hand, seemed sluggish to start the game but dominated in the second half and still finished with the most points and assists on the Mavs.
So, Doncic WCF MVP + Brown ECF MVP +303 is the best parlay to bet now.
But hang on!
I'm expecting the Wolves to bounce back in Game 2. It's possible that they get hit in Game 2 just like they did to the Suns and Nuggets in the second game on the road, but Dallas hasn't been as consistent. If the Wolves win to even the series, the price on Doncic will improve, despite the Mavericks still having home court.
So, if you like the Wolves, bet Edwards or Towns (or both) with Brown now. If you like the Mavericks, you can wait and bet them after Game 2 as they head back to Dallas.
It's, of course, still very possible for Tatum to put up huge numbers in Games 3 and 4 and for recency bias close the deal.
But right now, this market — specifically at DraftKings — is a rare opportunity to bet the certainty that exists with the Celtics advancing to the Finals without having to wait until after the Finals for your return.
And you get to do so in a lower-juiced market.
