With the NBA Cup knockout rounds starting Tuesday night, the market is ripe for some futures plays. Here's a look at what futures I'm playing in the NBA Cup market based on both my projections and advanced game analysis.
EAST BRACKET
Magic at Bucks
As I covered in my betting card, I anticipate a Bucks win. I have this game projected at over 10 points and I don't believe the Magic have enough offense to pull off the upset.
The big question in this one is who scores more, Giannis Antetokounmpo or Damian Lillard? If Lillard goes for 35-plus, that's going to get him a lead and spark a big leap in the Cup MVP market.
We gave out Antetokounmpo at +1700 on Buckets during group play and there's still probably some value on him at +550. Are the odds Antetokounmpo is the best player on the floor and wins three games in a row better than 15%?
As good as Lillard is, I believe the odds for the Bucks winning the Cup and Antetokounmpo winning MVP should be 1:1. However, there's no bet to make here now — the market has caught up on the Bucks.
Hawks at Knicks
The Knicks are 7-point favorites Wednesday vs. the Hawks, and I think that's light. The Hawks had a nice six-game winning streak and beat teams we know they are not better than, teams like the Cavaliers.
That came crashing down when they got housed at home by the Nuggets, who had lost to the Wizards the night before. Fun fact: the Hawks are the only team to lose to a team that has lost to the Wizards this season as the Wizards other two wins came against … the Hawks.
The Hawks aren't good and are the most fraudulent team in the bracket. Now, knowing Atlanta and their inconsistency, that makes them live, but I'll trust a very good Knicks team with an elite offense and an improving defense to get it done.
If you listen to Buckets, we gave out Karl-Anthony Towns to win Cup MVP at 100-1 a few weeks ago. I say "we," but in reality, it's Joe Dellera's bet. I reluctantly tagged along because the logic was sound. It's still 18-1. However, there's a wrinkle I'll throw in next.
If I'm right and the Knicks beat the Hawks and the Bucks get past the Magic, we get …
Knicks vs. Bucks
Great matchup, big-time Eastern Conference battle.
I make this one close. I have this as Knicks -1.4 on a neutral court — about a 54.5% chance.
But when we get into matchups, I like the Knicks even more. The Bucks play drop coverage under Doc Rivers in 1-5 pick and roll, sending Brook Lopez back toward the rim. That's going to open up chances for Jalen Brunson to absolutely eat. This has been a constant issue and the Bucks have been even worse when dealing with guard-guard screens, which the Knicks can use with Mikal Bridges or Miles McBride.
Not only does that space help Brunson, but it'll also open up space for Towns in pick-and-pop sequences.
So, with that in mind, I like the Knicks to advance. Milwaukee actually has the better defense right now, ranked 13th (schedule-adjusted) vs. the Knicks' 15th-ranked defense. But the Knicks offense is the best unit on the floor. This is a close one, but I'll go with the Knicks to advance.
There are two possible ways to attack this. If we think the Knicks reach the Final, you can take Brunson to be MVP at+400, giving you the option to hedge in the Final as there's no chance of the Knicks being longer than that in a single game vs. any team in the West, even Oklahoma City.
The other is just to bet them to make the Finals. The Knicks are +110 to reach the Finals at DraftKings, and I make them -119.
At over a $2 difference in price, I'll wager that. That way I don't have to worry about a big Towns game vs. Atlanta or in the Finals for him to sneak past Brunson.
Bet: Knicks to reach Cup Final (+110)
West Bracket
Mavericks at Thunder
I wrote this game up in my Tuesday card as well. Read that to find out why I like the Mavericks to upset the Thunder, despite my projections liking Oklahoma City.
The numbers say Oklahoma City should win, which makes this a tricky spot from a futures perspective.
If Oklahoma City wins, I'm going to like the Thunder vs. either of the teams that advance from the other side of the bracket, and will like them vs. any team out of the East. If I didn't like Dallas so much here, I would think of this very differently.
I make the Thunder +150 to win the Cup. I don't know that I think Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should be 1:1 with their cup odds given the possibility of Jalen Williams having a huge performance to win, but it's got to be closer than the current price. Gilgeous-Alexander is +425 to win Cup MVP, and that's a ridiculous price based on my +150 number.
If you follow me in the Action Network app, you would have seen that I bet Luka Doncic to win Cup MVP at +110 — it's currently +1200. That's absurd, but regardless, that gives me the ability to bet Gilgeous-Alexander at +425.
Again, I think Dallas beats Oklahoma City and advances, but if that one game goes wrong, then the Thunder should become favorites to win the cup and Gilgeous-Alexander at +425 will get obliterated in the market. I'll bet that now, even with how I feel about this game overall.
Warriors at Rockets
Long story short, this should be a terrific game that I don't have much futures interest in. I don't think either of these teams beat either of the other two teams in the West bracket, nor do I think they beat Milwaukee or New York. If the Hawks do some Hawks stuff? Then sure, these teams would have value and we'll re-evaluate before Saturday's semifinals.
I make the Rockets heavy favorites with home-court advantage at 71.2% to win this game.
One of the problems is the MVP market for Houston. If it was like Milwaukee or Oklahoma City, with one player definitively above the rest, we could probably find a long-shot MVP bet here.
But it could be Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, Fred VanVleet or … (gulp) Dillon Brooks. Sengun is the most likely winner if the Rockets win the Cup at +1400. I make the Rockets +1069 to win the cup, but I would have to think the odds of Rockets winning and Sengun winning MVP are the same, and I don't.
The Rockets are +220 to make the Finals and I have it at +562.
I just can't find any value on this side of the bracket. I do have a Stephen Curry ticket from before group play started, but I would not bet it now as I do not expect the Warriors to advance. (Again, listen to Buckets.)
If things play out according to my projections we get …
Thunder/Mavericks vs. Rockets
So again, this is where it gets tricky. I'm going to rely on my projections in every matchup except Thunder-Mavericks because I genuinely think the Mavericks are better at full-strength than their full-season power rating and I like the matchup.
But the Thunder are favored for a reason. The most likely scenario is, of course, chalk. Last year, we bet the Pacers because we could see the run in front of them. I can't find that for the 'dogs in the first-round matchups, except for Dallas.
If Dallas plays the Rockets, I make Dallas a 54.5% favorite, which is considerably shorter than the market currently expects for those Rockets Finals odds. But I still have Dallas favored.
If it's Oklahoma City vs. Houston, I make the Thunder over an 8-point favorite with a 79% winning probability. At that point, Houston's finals number is too short. Hence the inability to bet Houston.
Either way, I don't expect Houston to reach the Final. That leaves us with a Cup Finals of …
Thunder/Mavericks vs. Knicks
Thunder-Knicks Win Probability: Thunder 66.7%
Mavericks-Knicks Win Probability: Knicks 51.3%
So yeah, again, the outcome of Thunder-Mavericks changes a ton for me.
Let's talk about the basketball side of this.
If it's Thunder-Knicks, Oklahoma City has the switching ability to take away pick-and-pop action and the wing defenders to bother the Knicks' offense. The Knicks' defense isn't nearly as good as Oklahoma City's and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is unlikely to be deterred. If the Knicks put OG Anunoby on Gilgeous-Alexander, Gilgeous-Alexander will force the switch onto Jalen Brunson. If the Knicks blitz that action, the Thunder can use Jalen Williams or Isaiah Hartenstein in the short roll capacity, which will be tough for Oklahoma City to defend.
If the Knicks try to pre-switch with Anunoby on Hartenstein, Gilgeous-Alexander will attack the ISO on Mikal Bridges (who has been weirdly rough defensively) or Josh Hart. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City will put Karl-Anthony Towns in many actions no matter who he's guarding.
While improving, the Thunder defense is the best unit on the court, and the Knicks' defense will have matchup problems with Oklahoma City.
Dallas is a different question. The Mavericks want to pack the paint and defend the rim at all costs. They play physical, gritty defense on the interior, but dare opponents to shoot at times. That's not great vs. the Knicks' 5-out offense. The Mavs are 4-2 this season vs. top-10 offenses, but this one in particular will cause problems.
This puts me in a bind. I think the Mavericks beat the Thunder, but my projections think Oklahoma City wins the whole thing. I like Oklahoma City vs. the Knicks, but the Knicks vs. Dallas. If you're betting into the market now, I still think Luka Doncic +1200 is the best value on the board. Despite the very slight advantage I give the Knicks vs. Dallas, in any other outcome, I'm going to like Dallas.
Relative to the market, though, Knicks to make the Finals, Gilgeous-Alexander and Doncic to win Cup MVP at +425 and +1200 respectively (+274 implied combined) is the best value. If the Mavericks and Knicks reach the Final, I'll definitely hedge the Doncic number with a Knicks bet.
