NBA play resumes on Black Friday with another loaded slate of NBA Cup action. Teams will be looking to improve tiebreakers with point differential which could lead to some wild results.
Continue below for my NBA Cup picks and expert prediction for Friday, November 29.
Thunder vs. Lakers
The Lakers are all but eliminated from Cup play at 2-1 with a -16. Even if they stomp the Thunder, they'll need the Spurs to upset the Suns to win their group and sneak in. OKC on the other hand can win out and take the group thanks to their head-to-head win over Phoenix.
Beyond the Cup, though, his game is also a significant test for the Lakers, who got a win vs. the Spurs on Wednesday but have still been reeling.
But beyond where both teams are this season, with OKC the most dominant team in the West despite injury issues and the Lakers still trying to find a defense that isn't garbage, this game is a major matchup problem for the Thunder.
Last season, Anthony Davis smashed the Thunder, averaging over 27 points per game and winning his minutes across the four contests by nine for a player who frequently wound up negative in plus-minus. The lack of a legit center option for OKC killed them, and the Lakers used their physicality and offensive rebound advantage to bully the kiddos in OKC.
The Thunder leveled up at center with Isaiah Hartenstein. But AD has averaged 25 points and 11 rebounds per game against Hartenstein in his career. (Hartenstein came off the bench in all but one of their eight matchups.) Hartenstein's great defensively in rotation and as a help defender but he's not the kind of physical force that makes Davis disengage.
OKC remains terrible on the boards, giving up the most second-chance points per 100 possessions league-wide. The Lakers have been bottom-10 in that category this season offensively, but this remains a matchup where Davis can be the difference-maker.
I project a slight edge to the Thunder but given the spot, the matchup, and trends that favor the Lakers including a 5-1 SU performance for LA vs. Western Conference teams at home this season, I'll go with the Lakers.
Pick: Lakers +2
Cavaliers vs. Hawks
Let's start with a trend. The Cavaliers lost as a favorite to the Hawks in overtime Wednesday. Now they're in Atlanta as favorites again. Teams who played the same team within a week, lost as home favorites, and are road favorites are 24-9 ATS since 2021 when the league started regularly scheduling these "duplex" spots with teams playing twice in a week routinely.
How about this one? In that same time span, the Hawks are 10-16 ATS when facing a team twice in a week after winning the first matchup.
I can't get anywhere close to this number on power rating. The Hawks pulling off that win Wednesday was so random based on what we knew coming in that I can't do much but go back to the well after betting on Cleveland Wednesday.
Plus, the Cavaliers need this game, and by a very large margin, for any hope of pulling off a cup group win. They lost to the Celtics, so they'll need a Bulls upset of Boston to sneak in as group winner. They are live to win the wild card, however, which will need a big margin of victory.
This line opened up -3.5 — in some reason — and is now -7.5. It's not enough. I'll like it to Cavs -10.
I'll trust the Cavs to set Wednesday's upset right.
Pick: Cavaliers -6
Celtics vs. Bulls
Boston, for whatever reason, has struggled to defend at home. The Celtics have the 19th-ranked defensive rating at home. But on the road? Third-best. Go figure.
The under in Boston road games is 6-3 with the opponent going under their team total in six of the nine. Now, Chicago's defense is bad all over, no matter where.
But I project this down at 230 and think the steam has gone too far moving this above 240. I'll back the trends here and hope that The Celtics don't put up 150 on their own on the Bulls.
Pick: Under 243
