NBA Cup Group Play concludes on Tuesday night, and there's a lot on the line, as teams vie for a shot at $500,000 per player for winning the Cup.
I've got projections and plays for several games so let's get to it, with an eye towards which teams are motivated as we break down my NBA Cup picks & predictions for Tuesday, December 3.
NBA Cup Picks & Predictions for Tuesday, Dec. 3
- Bucks -4 at DET
- Knicks -4.5 vs ORL
- Thunder -17 vs UTA
- Cavaliers -16 vs WAS
Bucks vs. Pistons Expert Bet
The market has already ticked this number up to Bucks -4 overnight from the opener of 3.5. This game is for Group B and a spot in the quarterfinal. It's a high-motivation spot and everyone but Khris Middleton is probable for the Bucks.
The Pistons were my first big flag-plant team on win totals last summer. I have a big position on them over 24.5 wins. They're not bad.
But they're also not good.
The perception lingers that the Bucks are a mediocre team on the verge of falling apart, which is where they were three weeks ago, and the Pistons are a feisty upstart.
Here's the reality. The Bucks have the 12th-ranked offense and 13th-ranked defense, schedule-adjusted, at DunksAndThrees.com. Detroit has the 26th-ranked offense and 17th-ranked defense.
These teams are not the same. I make this game Bucks by double-digits off power rating.
Milwaukee is quietly up to sixth-best in halfcourt defense. The Pistons are 0-5 SU and 1-3-1 ATS vs. top-ten halfcourt defenses this season. The Bucks are also up to 10th in halfcourt offense. The Pistons have fared better vs. top-10 halfcourt offenses, with Milwaukee currently 9th. But the margin here is tough with a spread of just over one possession.
I think the Pistons are a serious cup contender next season. They're not ready for the Giannis Train rolling through.
Pick: Bucks -4
Magic vs. Knicks Expert Bet
The market disagrees with me here, going to 4.5 from 5 overnight, but I like the Knicks here.
There are two main handicaps at work: the Magic on the road and the the math problem.
Orlando is not a good on the road. They are 2-5 ATS as road dogs this season, and 4-10 ATS going back to March 1st of last season. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 24-18-1 ATS as home favorites with Jalen Brunson in the lineup.
This game is the most motivational spot on the card with the winner headed to the quarterfinals as group winner. But it's more of a spot for the Knicks. If they lose, they're likely out of the tournament due to point differential tiebreaker. They need this game.
Orlando, with a +60 point differential in cup play, advances as long as they don't lose by enough for the loser of Pistons-Bucks to overtake them. They're going to make the quarterfinals no matter what. The same can't be said for the Knicks (+15). They lose and they're out no matter what, with the Celtics, Pistons, or Bucks passing them depending on Tuesday's results.
With Knicks homecourt, I make this double digits. I'm high on Orlando on analysis, but the numbers don't back it; the Magic are worse offensively (23rd) than the Knicks are defensively (16th). I think the Knicks take care of business and secure group while Orlando still makes the quarterfinals.
Pick: Knicks -4.5
Jazz vs. Thunder Expert Bet
This is the biggest point differential spot on the board.
The Thunder need to win for the Cup. If they win and Spurs lose, the Thunder win the group outright.
If they win and the Spurs upset the Suns, though, they'll need point differential.
Joe Dellera has a bet on this game. He likes a prop for the Thunder to score 100 within three quarters at +500. From Joe:
OKC needs a win and a Spurs loss to clinch the Group. But if the Spurs win they also can advance with point differential depending on what happens with Mavericks–Grizzlies. The good news for us is that game starts AFTER the Thunder-Jazz game tips.
This is a game OKC should shred Utah with both teams playing at above average Paces and Utah having the league’s second-worst Defensive Rating, per Dunks and Threes.OKC did this once last year against the Jazz in 4 meetings and came close in most of the games with 82, 111, 98, and 92.
This is worth a play and I might have some other alts for this game.
Co-sign, and I'll lay the 13.5, as I make this Thunder -17.
PICK: Thunder -17
Wizards vs. Cavaliers Expert Bet
The Cavaliers are eliminated from cup play after losing to… ahem… the Hawks. But they're still rolling through the regular season. This season, the Cavs are 8-6 SU and ATS vs. teams under .500 with two of those losses to Atlanta. They're also 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite.
The Wizards, well, they didn't win a single game in November. The plan is working nicely so far for them to Capture The Flagg. The Wizards are also an astonishing 3-12-1 ATS against teams with a plus-.500 ATS record, and 2-5-1 ATS when a double-digit dog.
There is no bottom for the Wizards, and the Cavs are the type of team that takes care of business. I make this a whopping Cavaliers -24 on power rating, with Cleveland the highest-rated team in the league and the Wizards the second-worst (Pelicans). I have no fear laying the 16.
Pick: Cavaliers -16
