The NBA Cup knockout stages tipoff on Tuesday with the Orlando Magic taking on the Milwaukee Bucks shorthanded, while the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder are also set to renew their rivalry.
Here's a look at the spreads and totals I'm betting in the NBA Cup quarterfinals on Tuesday night.
Matt Moore's NBA Cup Quarterfinals Picks, Predictions
- Bucks -7
- Magic-Bucks Over 214.5
- Mavericks Moneyline +154
- Mavericks-Thunder Under 231.5
Magic vs. Bucks Spread Pick, Total Prediction
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 214.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 214.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
This line opened -5.5, the Franz Wagner news moved it to -9.5, and the Magic have since taken money to move it back to -7. That’s despite 73% of the money in our PRO system being on the Bucks. So the sharps like the Magic here.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is probable, as he has been listed the last several times he’s played. Jonathan Isaac is questionable for the Magic. Notably, Gary Harris is out, and the Magic have been better with him on the floor this season.
The Bucks are 1-6 vs. top-10 defenses this season with a -4.3 spread differential via Cleaning The Glass. Orlando is 3rd on defense.
The Bucks are also 7-1 with a +4.5 spread differential vs. bottom-10 offensive teams. The Magic are 23rd in offense.
So, the Magic are both an immovable object and a very resistible force.
Orlando is tough; there’s no question about it. They all defend and can move the ball. But they just can’t score. Milwaukee, after rising to 10th in schedule-adjusted defense, had some slippage over the weekend to 13th. But 13th is still above league median. A decent defense vs. a weaponless offense is a bad recipe to begin with.
Orlando is the 6th best defending the rim, but they allow a lot of shots at it (16th in defensive rate), and they have the 8th-highest foul rate.
Giannis is going to eat tonight.
I make this Bucks (-11.5) without Wagner, who has been one of the best players in the league this season.
If this were a regular-season game, I’d stay far away from it. Total letdown spot against the Magic without Wagner and Banchero.
But at home with a chance to advance in the Cup? I’ll lay the points.
I also like the over here. The Magic may struggle to score, but the Bucks are going to run off the misses and get downhill vs. the Magic defense to avoid letting them get set.
Picks: Bucks -7, Over 214.5
Mavericks vs. Thunder Moneyline Bet, Over/Under Prediction
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -112 | 231.5 -108o / -112u | +154 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -108 | 231.5 -108o / -112u | -185 |
I try to follow my projections pretty closely. It’s the best process I have. They make this Thunder -5.8.
I’m tossing it here.
The matchup is a problem; that was evident in the second-round playoff matchup where the Mavericks beat OKC last year.
It was mostly shot variance; PJ Washington made open threes, Isaiah Joe and Lu Dort did not. That can absolutely change in this game.
However, there are some extra circumstances…
The Thunder are significantly worse shooting this year than they were last year. They were No. 1 in 3-point percentage last year, they are 19th this season. They were No. 2 in eFG% on catch-and-shoot shots last season, they are 16th this season.
Dallas packs the paint, and swarms help on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s drives. They’re one of the best teams in the league at protecting the rim because they sell out with physicality.
Meanwhile, did you know that PJ Washington went to high school in Texas? As a nice correlated note, he seems to thrive vs. Oklahoma specifically. He’s gone over his 3-point prop in 10 of the last 14 matchups against the Thunder.
OKC will have to double-team Luka; every time they tried playing him straight up, he cooked. That’s a problem for them. When that happens, the weak-side threes are open.
This is just a matchup OKC is going to have to prove they can succeed in before I stray away from betting on Dallas.
I’m also on the under. This total is the fourth-highest total between the two teams in the past two seasons.
Picks: Mavericks Moneyline +154, Under 231.5
