With NBA Free Agency mostly settled, we’re about to hit the quiet days on the NBA calendar. Yes, there is Summer League to attend to, and this year the Olympics will start up soon, but barring injuries at either, most of the league has mostly settled their rosters.
That allows us to step back and assess some betting markets. Win totals should be out soon, but for now, we can look at a proxy for win totals—division odds! I typically don’t rush to hammer these in the summer, but there were a few that caught my eye and demanded a look in this article here. I have thoughts on all six divisions, even if the play is “wait” for some of them.
Atlantic Division
This is a stacked division, with: the returning champs in Boston, alongside the two teams with arguably the biggest additions this offseason in Paul George and the Sixers plus Mikal Bridges and the Knicks.
However, for my money, I want to run it back.
I’m skeptical of the Knicks and Sixers for differing reasons. For Philly, the question is—unsurprisingly—the health of Joel Embiid and Paul George. And here it’s not so much the worst case scenario that we’re eyeing, but just the baseline floor of expected missed games. Embiid missed over half the season last year, but even in good seasons, he’s expected to miss 15-20 games. Paul George is the opposite in that he’s coming off his healthiest season, but his games played the four seasons before were: 56, 31, 54, and 48.
This is a team that still won 47 games with Embiid missing over half the season last year, BUT this team also quietly looks a lot different than last season. By EPM, the number: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 10 players on their roster from last season are gone. The replacements look decent (and I don’t think we’re seeing the final roster yet), but between figuring out the new fits and the very likely chance that their two stars miss at least some time make me hesitant about their regular season value.
The Celtics will have an injury of their own to deal with in Kristaps Porzingis, but they were without him a chunk of last season, and their roster is farrrr more balanced and ready to sustain missing time from any of their players. Even if the elderly (lol) Al Horford misses some time, a front-court of Xavier Tillman, Neemias Queta, and Luke Kornet is actually sneaky very solid.
As for the Knicks, they will likely be one of my bigger fades—for the regular season at least. Yes, they are fresh off a season in which they won 50 games, with a Pythag of 53 wins. And yes, they added one of the most reliable wings in the game in Mikal Bridges, who just so happens to be buddies with the entire roster. However, I am incredibly nervous we start to see some of the early stages of Thibs Impact.
By the end of the postseason run, the team was basically being held together by duct tape. Their star is a small-bodied guard who has answered every question asked of him—at the same time, only five players in the league played more combined minutes last regular and postseason. And one of those five was his teammate, Josh Hart, who was also showing signs of slowing down by the end of their run.
There’s also the center issue. Isaiah Hartenstein was the Knicks second-most valuable player by EPM last season, and while Mitchell Robinson has a high ceiling when healthy, he just has never proven an ability to stay healthy. That leaves a few options that seem less than ideal and/or unlikely. Both Thibs and Randle have never really given the Randle as Center experiment much shrift, even though it looks to be a perfect solution. Thibs seemed up for OG as the five in the playoffs, but doing that during the regular season is a recipe for an oft-hurt player to get there quicker. Jericho Sims has shown flashes but that’s about it. They could bring back Precious Achiuwa, but they turned down his qualifying offer, so he’d have to be up for a pay cut.
This might seem to be nitpicking, but when the competition has as high a floor as Boston, it’s going to take everything breaking right to dethrone the defending champs in the Atlantic.
However, because the Celtics are odds-on favorites, this number isn’t going to move like crazy before we actually get to the season. Let’s see if any of the many players Boston is sending to France pick up injuries, how the Knicks and Sixers potentially fill their open roster spots, and grab what should be right around the same price right before the season starts.
Best Bet: Celtics -155 (ESPN BET, but wait until close to season)
Central Division
My name is Jim Turvey, and I was a 2022-23 Cavs Central Division ticket holder.
[Chorus of bitter bettors]: Hi, Jim!
Anyone who was holding a Cavalier Central Division winner ticket from last season has the Cavs-Hornets April 24 box score stapled to their basement dartboard. The Cavs had a 13-point lead with ten minutes to go, before wheeling out the tank and handing the win to Charlotte to secure the fourth seed and what they saw as the better matchup in Orlando. They had the division in their grasp and let it go—a brutal beat for us Milwaukee Faders.
Well, we’re back and stronger than ever.
Milwaukee is once again the heavy favorite, and once again I have Cleveland not just as a worthy opponent, but actually projected just ahead of them. In fact, I have the Bucks third in the division, albeit with the top three here separated by a very tight margin.
Cleveland is rolling back almost the exact same roster, but has a new head coach in Kenny Atkinson. There’s also the possibility that they could be in the mix for Brandon Ingram (Ingram for Allen just makes too much sense), but even without any tweaks, I see no reason this team shouldn’t be right around 50 wins again in 2023-24.
And if they are in that tier, Milwaukee needs to be mid-50’s by their wins to deserve this price. And I don’t see that.
This team got off to a 30-13 start last season, but it was fool’s gold and it was so clearly fool’s gold (+3.8 net rating) that they fired their first-year coach with a .698 winning percentage! (Obviously that wasn’t the singular factor at play.) Then Doc Rivers came in, and the team proceeded to lose five of their first six under him, and under Doc they were 17-19 with a +0.6 net rating.
They still have Giannis and Dame, but Brook Lopez is now even another year older, and there’s just no real reason to see this team in a tier above Cleveland and Indiana.
The Pacers, in fact, made the deepest playoff run of any Central Division team last season, and while sometimes I like to fade a team coming back to earth off their first long playoff run, this is a team that was a +3.8 net rating team (sound familiar?) after acquiring Pascal Siakim, and given their collective age, is going to suffer the wear and tear less than other teams off a long playoff run.
I like the Cavs at +350 a touch more than the Pacers at +400, but I’ll be playing both and fading the Bucks in the Central again. Can’t wait for some late season shenanigans to burn me again!
Best Bet: Cavs +350 (ESPN BET)
Also Bet: Pacers +400 (DraftKings)
Southeast Division
This was easily my most profitable division in 2023-24, as I have long been higher on the Magic than the market. I was also lower on the Heat than the market last season, which allowed me time and time again to hit a Magic division ticket that was never being priced right the entire season.
And for 2024-25, I see no reason to run it back.
The Magic are now the (rightful) favorite, thanks to an offseason in which they added Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, while the Heat have really only lost Caleb Martin. I’ll be on Orlando to win the division, but similar to the Celtics, I want to wait until close to the season, so as not to tie up my money for an unnecessary three months.
As such, it’s another team—and number—that is catching my eye.
I can’t believe I’m falling for it again… but the Hawks are +3100 to win the Southeast right now at FanDuel, and that’s just a wild number For one, basically every other book has it around +1200 or so. And while that’s only a few percentage points off in implied odds, that’s obviously a massive gap in payout, which is the trick to these longshots.
Have the Hawks trended down for four straight season after their breakout 2020-21 season? Yes. Did they trade their second-biggest name this offseason? Yes. Am I still super intrigued by them?! Also yes!
I was high on the Hawks before last season as well, as I wanted to see what a full season with Quin Snyder at the helm would look like. The team got off to a very pedestrian start, then suffered some key injuries, and seemed to be totally fine letting go of the rope late.
Yes, they will be without Dejounte Murray this season, but to be honest that fit was never as strong as it looked on paper, mostly because Murray fell off notably on the defensive end during his actual time in Atlanta. In Dyson Daniels and Larry Nance Jr., the Hawks get two very strong defensive pieces, which will be key for a team that had the 27th-ranked defensive rating last year.
Because this is +3100, this is also a bit of a ceiling play. And a full season of Jalen Johson would do wonders for the Hawks. I named a whole theory after Johnson, as I find him one of the most impactful under-the-radar players in the league.
Both Johnson and Trae Young saw their impact numbers tail off a bit down the stretch, but at 31:1, I’m willing to put a little bit on the possibility of a fresh start being a meaningful difference in a division where I still like the Magic, but there’s far from a true juggernaut.
Best Bet: Hawks +3100 (FanDuel)
Best Bet: Magic -110 (Bet365, but can wait)
