It's NBA Draft Week.
Usually, we have a full four days until decision day for the NBA's 30 teams, but with the league expanding the draft to two nights (while still keeping it two rounds, for some unknown reason), the first round will be on Wednesday this year, with the second round on Thursday in the middle of the day.
Don't ask me; I'm just the messenger.
With this year's draft being notoriously weak and so many teams looking to upgrade, uncertainty reigns. No one knows what the Hawks will do at No. 1, and the cascading effect of that decision — be it made by Atlanta or a team that trades up for the pick — could have ripple effects all the way through the lottery.
There are very few players I think are safe from plummeting in this draft if something funky occurs.
All of this is to say: bet the 2024 NBA Draft at your own risk. It's scary hours out there.
As it stands, Zaccharie Risacher is the consensus odds-on favorite to go No. 1. Whether that's the pick or not remains to be seen. But let's start there — by trying to decode exactly what the Hawks will do and what happens next.
Top 4 is a Complete Mess
Here's kind of the thought process on the Hawks from outside perspectives.
Alexandre Sarr was the expected No. 1 pick when the lottery happened, and there are many times when the No. 1 pick winds up being the pick all along.
That's changed in recent weeks, partly due to Sarr refusing multiple times to work out for the Hawks, but teams have often taken players who refused to work out for them. Yes, it's annoying, and Sarr's leaked disinterest in the Hawks has been vigorous, but ultimately, Sarr doesn't have that much leverage.
However, there's simply been no indication that, after doing their due diligence, the Hawks came away impressed with Sarr.
There's also the opportunity for the Hawks to trade down. If they're not sold on Sarr and another team is, they can move down and still get a player they want.
For example, Hall of Fame reporter Marc Stein reported that the Spurs are a potential suitor to trade up for Sarr. To show you how much noise is in the either, the team I've consistently heard attached to the Spurs is fellow Frenchman Zaccharie Risacher. So, would the Spurs trade up to get Sarr? Or Risacher?
Donovan Clingan is the name that sped up the board in late May and early June.
With the Hawks not exactly stamping in cement that they're just taking Sarr, I think there's a legit chance the Hawks take Clingan, leaving the Wizards with their choice of Sarr or Rischer. Recent reporting has said that if Sarr is there at No. 2, the Wizards will take him. I've heard Risacher more firmly attached to the Wizards.
(Again, if this sounds really nebulous and confusing, A. welcome to draft season, where no one knows anything, and B. welcome to the 2024 draft, where there are no plain rational decisions because the draft is so bad — at least on the surface.)
Let's make this even more complicated!
The Rockets were pretty firmly rejecting offers for the No. 3 picks for weeks, and most mock drafts and inside intel had singled out Reed Sheppard as their target.
So if the Hawks and Wizards take two of Sarr, Rischer and Clingan, and the Rockets take Sheppard, then one of them falls to San Antonio at No. 4.
There are no guarantees in this draft, but based on what league sources have said, they expect the Spurs to wind up with one of those three. Again, Rischer is the name most attached. Let's look at this from a betting perspective.
- Riscacher, 2. Sarr, 3. Sheppard is the favorite right now at +250 at DraftKings. That's a 29% implied probability.
If the Hawks don't take Risacher, they could very well end up trading the pick to San Antonio, who would also take Risacher. Then the Wizards take Sarr and Houston takes Sheppard.
The next most likely top 3 combo is 1. Clingan, 2. Sarr, 3. Sheppard at +370, 22% implied.
If you put a squirt gun to my head, that would be what I would bet. I bet it the second books started offering Clingan No. 1, with that combo at +750 on June 20.
In related news, Risacher to go No. 4 was +900 on June 20 and +425 now.
I'm of the belief that the Hawks are more likely to keep the pick and take Clingan, the Wizards take Sarr, and the Rockets don't trade their pick (because trading top-three picks is risky even in this draft) and take Sheppard.
That's based on logical deduction with what I've heard from various draft-focused intel around the league. But it's still a gamble that can go in any direction.
To that end, I've also bet 1. Clingan, 2. Risacher, 3. Sheppard at +2500.
"What about Sarr?" Great question! No idea where he stops.
One of the many ways those exactas can go sideways? Buzz picked up late last week about Houston having gotten an offer that piqued their interest for the No. 3 pick to move back.
The Spurs are thought to be a team that would look at moving up to No. 3 as well as No. 1. If the Spurs like Risacher — and there are reasons to believe they would — and they find the right deal, the Spurs could move up to No. 3, take Risacher, and then use the Bo. 4 pick to take Stephon Castle, who they've been attached to forever.
That gives them two top-five picks, admittedly in a weak draft, to help build around Victor Wembanyama on top of whatever they add in free agency.
An important thing to note here: San Antonio is and always has been one of the most close-to-the-vest organizations in basketball.
The Risacher buzz could very well be coming from Rischer's camp and the Spurs could be honed in on just taking Castle at No.4 (which, by the way, means one of Risacher, Sarr, Clingan and Sheppard falls well past where they're expected). Castle is the favorite at No. 4 at +180.
It would be better if we had certain things locked in or if the choices were more binary. But realistically any of Sarr, Clingan or Risacher could go to the Hawks or a team that trades up.
And once that happens, Washington's decision tree could change, even though the assumption is that it'll be one of Sarr or Risacher. If the Rockets stay put, I'm expecting Sheppard there. If they trade out, I'm expecting it to be for whatever one of those three bigs falls, which could mean Sheppard goes all the way to No. 5 or No. 6.
As a hedge off Stein's report, I bet Sarr to go No.1 at +550 on June 22. Sarr was still the favorite when the lottery happened. That cashes if the noise about the Hawks not taking him was all from Sarr's camp or if a team trades up to get Sarr. Multiple pathways there give that bet value.
If all of this sounds too complicated and unstable, well, you're right. Betting into this draft market is not for the faint of heart.
The Pistons' Confusion
Matas Buzelis is widely considered to be the favorite for the Pistons at No. 5. He's currently +330 at DraftKings to go fifth with some strong agency-organization connections between Buzelis and Detroit.
But there's another element here since Buzelis was penciled in at 5. Trajan Langdon from the Pelicans was hired as the new head of basketball operations. Some league sources have suggested that Langdan, at the very least, isn't putting Buzelis in as the pick in Sharpie.
If we look at the above clusterfuss with the No. 1 pick, we've got five prospects — Sarr, Risacher, Clingan, Sheppard and Castle — considered higher than Buzelis for four spots.
Do the Pistons pass up one of those players for Buzelis? It's entirely possible, and if so, the over on whichever of those players you think falls has value. For example, Castle over 5.5 is +115. I think there's a higher chance of a team reaching for Castle than him sliding, but it depends on where you land with the game theory on the other top five.
One more note on Buzelis: he's out of G-League Ignite. There's more than a little hesitation from some execs toward Ignite players after the struggles of Jalen Green and Scoot Henderson.
It's not a cross-off element by any means; teams will still take the best players. But I wouldn't be surprised if Buzelis and/or Ron Holland fell on draft night in part due to those reservations.
Additionally, I would put the floor on Sheppard and Castle squarely at No. 6. If either of those two fell, I think Charlotte likely takes them. That means if no one reaches for Buzelis and the Pistons don't take him, he'll drop further than the 5.5 (-110 both ways) draft position.
The Carter/Williams/Salaun Trifecta
Devin Carter, Cody Williams, and Tidjane Salaun are all names connected to seventh through 10th. Williams is -450, Carter -200 and Salaun -120 to go top-10 at DraftKings.
(By the way, if we take Sarr, Risacher, Clingan, Sheppard, Sheppard and Castle as top-10 locks, that's five spots gone. At DraftKings, seven other players have minus numbers to go top 10, at 55% implied or greater. So, 12 players have prices with an implied probability that says they more likely than not go top-10. Fun times!)
The Blazers are considered big fans of Williams, with Salaun having been an early target. Dalton Knecht (-300 top-10, +700 to go No. 7) is another name tied to Portland at No. 7. League sources indicated Devin Carter as a Blazers option for him, but Carter has not worked out for Portland.
Memphis is thought to be high on Carter at No. 9 (+250), but Memphis is also going to keep trying to move up to potentially get Clingan, which could complicate matters.
The rest of the top 10 gets messy, though.
The Spurs are at No. 8 but could move that pick, particularly if they pursue the above-mentioned trades to move into the top three.
The Grizzlies were an early candidate to try and move up to grab Clingan, but that's going to take a serious investment of resources at this point with him moving into top-three consideration.
And the Jazz? Well, the Jazz are open to all sorts of things, from moving up to down to out.
That said, Carter at -200 to go top 10 has value, as does Williams at -450. There's nothing sexy about -450 odds, but it would be most surprising if Williams slipped past 10th.
Nikola Topic is -130 to go top 10. I haven't heard almost anything about him. That doesn't mean he's not high on teams' boards or there isn't a team that's locked in on him. But a non-explosive, non-shooter point guard coming off an ACL surgery isn't exactly burning up the charts.
Maybe a team reaches or even trades up to reach for him, but I definitely would not have him a minus number to go top-10. (Topic's over/under is 10.5 with -140 juice to the over.
First-Round Picks
Adem Bona is +400 to go in the first round, and the word has been that he's been great in workouts. The range is still listed 20-40, and that seems like a pretty heavy bell curve weighted around 30, but there's value at +400. However, he's still consensus-mocked in the second round.
Two teams between 25 and 30 are known to be Cam Christie fans, and he's +220 to go in the first round with an average consensus mock grade of 31.5.
Tyler Smith (-110 to go first-round) has strong interest from two teams between 20 and 25.
Jaylon Tyson has real first-round interest. He's -270 to go in the first round at DraftKings. His ceiling is thought to be in the late teens, the floor at 35.
