It's the most wonderful time of the year: Christmas Day NBA betting.
We've extensively compiled our thoughts on all five games of the day, but we're here to narrow our list down to our favorite bets. From intriguing spreads and totals to why Giannis Antetokounmpo should crush his points prop, we've got you covered on this great holiday.
Rob Perez: Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 27.5 Points
Remember that scene from Star Wars, Episode III: Revenge of the Sith when Anakin saves the emperor and indirectly condemns Windu to death?
He sits down with that look on his face like he just realized he left his wallet on the bus and exclaims, “WHAT HAVE I DONE??”
That, my friends, is Mario Hezonja after stepping over Giannis Antetokounmpo at Madison Square Garden the last time these two teams played and hearing what Giannis has planned for revenge.
You can’t make Giannis' points prop high enough. Hezonja will be lucky to leave the arena with his head still attached to his body.
Oh, and by the way, the Knicks have to go to Milwaukee in two days for the second leg of a back-to-back and do this again. Giannis will be hell-bent on revenge, and that revenge will be taken out on the Madison Square Garden rims.
Ken Barkley: Thunder +1.5 at Rockets
There are a couple positive things going on here for the Thunder. First, their outright loss to Minnesota Sunday night probably keeps the market from going too crazy on them, which creates a little value.
But also, their general health is so much better than Houston's right now. With Chris Paul and James Ennis missing this game, Houston comes in shorthanded.
Oklahoma City has played the Rockets offense extremely tough both this season and last, often holding them well below season-averages. With full rest and full health, I’d expect a similar defensive effort. I’ll take OKC.
John Ewing: Celtics-76ers UNDER 224.5
Everyone knows that unders (35-20-1 since 2005) have been profitable on Christmas. That hasn't stopped bettors from wagering on the Celtics-76ers over, however.
Gamblers are probably banking on a high-scoring game because the 76ers are 20-13-1 to the over this season, while overs have gone 19-13 in Celtics games.
That said, in heavy-bet games with high totals, it has been profitable to bet the under when there is a higher percentage of money than tickets on the game.
Evan Abrams: Christmas Day Second-Half Unders (with a twist)
This is the spot I will be looking for on Christmas Day. As John noted, we all know Christmas Day unders typically crush, but if you split it up by half, unders are 27-28-1 in the first half since 2005 and 37-18-1 in the second half of games in that span.
The angle I will be looking for on Christmas Day is a low-scoring first half (preferably under 100 combined points); I'll take the under again in the second half of that game. When the first half on Christmas Day combines for fewer than 100 points, the under is 20-6 (76.9%), going under the total by 2.6 PPG. The under has gone 7-2 over the last five years in that spot.
Bryan Mears: Jazz -6 vs. Blazers
I mean, the play here is just to ride unders, both in full games and in the second half, as Evan and John mentioned above and as we've discussed in all of our betting guides.
But to be different, I'll take my favorite spread of the day, which is the Jazz -6 at home against the Blazers. I think the Jazz are trending up: Their defense remains elite, and their offense has very positive indicators of improving.
The offense has a healthy shot profile, and there are good shooters on this team. The issue has been mostly turnovers, and Portland is the second-worst team at forcing them on defense. This line suggests Utah is only a couple points better on a neutral court, and I think that's a little low.
