Finding success during a long fantasy basketball season often means jumping on players who are surging at the right time and pivoting off guys who are providing little to nothing for stretches. This week, there are a few players in the first category, specifically some backup guards with upside due to injuries.
Joe Dellera and Dan Titus break down their top injury pivots, players who are rising or falling and note how to benefit on worthwhile player prop angles fantasy trends and scheduling quicks for Week 6.
Read below to see where they are finding small edges this week.
Fantasy Basketball Schedule — Week 6
Schedule Notes
- DEN and DAL only team with two games (Nuggets worst schedule)
- No games Thursday — Happy Thanksgiving!
- Only streaming days are Tuesday (four games), Saturday (eight games) and Sunday (five games)
Fantasy Friendly Teams in Week 6
- Atlanta Hawks (OKC, @SAS, MEM, NYK)
- Utah Jazz (MEM, @OKC,NOR, NOR)
- Sacramento Kings (PHI, POR, @LAL, @MEM)
- Washington Wizards (CHA, @NOR, @OKC, @DAL)
Waiver Wire Adds
Shallow leagues (8-10 team leagues):
- Guards: Jalen Brunson, Reggie Jackson
- Forwards: Franz Wagner, Saddiq Bey, Kyle Anderson, Royce O’Neale
Deep Leagues (12+ team leagues):
- Guards: Patty Mills, Monte Morris, Pat Connaughton, Cam Reddish
- Forwards: Kevin Huerter, Derrick Jones Jr
- Centers: Jarred Vanderbilt, Khem Birch
Players to Watch
Injury Pivots
Will Barton / Michael Porter Jr., Denver Nuggets
Michael Porter Jr. is reportedly dealing with a nerve issue that could potentially sideline him for the remainder of the season, sources tell the Denver Post. Will Barton will continue to be the main beneficiary of MPJ’s absence — putting up career-highs this season in points (16.2 ppg), assists (4.1), FG% (46%), threes per game (2.4) and 3pt% (40%).
Fantasy Impact: Will Barton should be rostered in all leagues.
Patty Mills / Joe Harris, Brooklyn Nets
With Joe Harris’ injury, the clear tertiary scoring option for the Nets has been Patty Mills.
In the three games without Harris, Mills has scored 8, 21 and 22 points — if we add in the game Harris was injured, Mills scored 29 points in 31 minutes. Harris is expected to miss at least Monday and Wednesday so Mills will continue to see increased run. He’s seen his minutes increase from 25 to 33.7 as a starter.
Props Angle: Looking at Monday’s game against the Cavaliers, Mills already scored 21 points against them in 35 minutes just last Wednesday. His prop line on FanDuel is set at 12.5 points.
I’m looking to ride the Mills escalator and take some alternate lines. Mills’ props are set as follows at the time of this writing: 15+ (+144), 20+ (+540), 25+ (+1800). 25+ might be a bit much, but getting plus money for 15 and a juicy +540 for 20+ is too good to pass up.
Fantasy Impact: Mills is worth adding in all 12 team fantasy formats as he’s seeing a healthy dose of minutes and has the green light in a high octane offense.
Risers
Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers
Ben Simmons who? Tyrese Maxey has been surging as the 76ers primary ball handler and has been outstanding even without Joel Embiid.
In eight games without Embiid, Maxey is averaging 22.5 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 4.9 assists with just 0.9 turnovers per game. He’s seen his scoring rise as well, he’s scored 20 points or more in five of his last six games and he’s done it efficiently with 50% or better shooting in each contest.
Maxey’s points prop was most recently at 17.5 and he’s blown by this number lately. Maxey has been so hot lately he’s been profitable even on alternate lines. In the 76ers' most recent game against the Trailblazers I gave out 20+ points at +140 and he cleared that number with ease as he dropped 28 points.
Considering Embiid has already been ruled out for Monday’s matchup against the Kings, this may be another exploitable matchup although he likely will need to contend with rookie Davion Mitchell who has been a defensive monster.
Fantasy Impact: He should be in the Most Improved Player conversation and continues to be fantasy All-Star. He ranks 37th in Yahoo head-to-head nine-category formats and should be rostered in all leagues and formats.
Sacramento Kings
The Kings fired Luke (Puke?) Walton on Sunday and have tabbed Alvin Gentry to take over in Sacramento. This is notable for a few reasons.
Our colleague Matt Moore broke down some of the nuance between Walton and Gentry, but the one we are most concerned about from both a props and fantasy perspective is this: “The Pelicans had the fourth-highest Pace league wide in Gentry’s last season as coach in New Orleans.”
This should mean we see more counting stats from not only Kings’ players, but their opponents as well. For reference, these are the current stats for the top six players in minutes per game:
- Harrison Barnes: 19.9 points | 7.5 rebounds | 2.5 assists | 35.3 minutes
- De’Aaron Fox: 19.7 points | 3.3 rebounds | 5.8 assists | 34.7 minutes
- Tyrese Haliburton: 12.9 points | 3.7 rebounds | 4.8 assists | 32.8 minutes
- Buddy Hield: 16.5 points | 4.1 rebounds | 2.1 assists | 28.5 minutes
- Richaun Holmes: 14.2 points | 9.9 rebounds | 1.2 assists | 27.4 minutes
- Davion Mitchell: 8.9 points | 2.6 rebounds | 3.8 assists | 25.4 minutes
This change and presumed uptick in Pace should directly impact De’Aaron Fox. Fox is a known speedster and one of the fastest guards in the league — if he’s actually given the reigns to the offense and is able to push the pace, he could see his value skyrocket the rest of the season.
While they are not the same player, Jrue Holiday really found himself and consistently strung together strong seasons under Gentry.
Fantasy Impact: With Walton out of the way, buy low on De’Aaron Fox.
Talen Horton-Tucker, Los Angeles Lakers
Talen Horton-Tucker has fallen off a bit with the return of LeBron James, but with a possible suspension looming after the tussle at Little Caesars Arena THT should continue to see both minutes and usage.
While it’s a bit skewed because of LeBron’s ejection Sunday night, Horton-Tucker has yet to log fewer than 27 minutes in any game, and he’s still taking shots and securing rebounds. He’s made just 4-of-19 from the floor in his last two games but with the minutes there and the possibility of an expanded role this week Horton-Tucker is worth a look.
We cannot be sure if THT will ultimately start alongside James or lead the bench unit, but he will have plenty of opportunity to produce.
Fantasy Impact: LeBron James will likely have some rest days over the course of the season and THT has been averaging 32.6 minutes per game since returning from injury. He’s a fixture of the rotation and has upside coming off the bench for a Lakers team that lacks playmakers in the second unit.
Check out our free NBA odds page, which automatically surfaces the best line for every game.
Fallers
Kemba Walker, New York Knicks
Through 16 games the newly acquired point guard is averaging 11.7 points, 3.0 assists, and 2.4 rebounds, while shooting 43% from the field across 24.6 minutes per contest.
Over his previous 10 games, those numbers dropped to a putrid 9.1 points, 2.9 assists, and 1.9 rebounds per game in only 22 minutes per contest. The Knicks are not in sync, losing six of their past 10 matchups and Kemba is not seeing valuable floor time.
He’s competing with Derrick Rose and Immanuel Quickley for minutes and given his struggles, the 11-year pro is in a tailspin that going to be hard to recover from.
Fantasy Impact: Kemba Walker can be dropped in shallow leagues and probably most 12+team leagues as well.
