Monday night's NBA Finals game has the Miami Heat in must-win mode on the road as the Denver Nuggets look to close out the series at home en route to the franchise's first NBA title. I'm targeting two 3-point props in tonight's Game 5 matchups.
Check out my picks for two knockdown 3-point shooters below.
Max Strus over 1.5 3-Pointers (-115, Bet365)
I'm targeting bounce-back players in Game 5 and Strus is at the top of that list after a brutal shooting night Friday. Strus got into foul trouble in Game 4 and only played 17 min, his lowest since Game 4 of Round 1 against the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Heat need him desperately to hit some shots. In his last game in Denver, Strus came out firing. He hit three 3-pointers in the first quarter alone in Game 2 and finished 4-of-10 from deep. Strus took 19 3-point shots in two games in Denver, which is great volume, and 73% of all his shots are coming from behind the 3-point line in the playoffs. (That’s up to 83% in the NBA Finals.)
Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has made it known that, like in Hockey, the Heat want shots on goal. Even as a 33% shooter, I project at least six 3-point attempts from Strus with the Heat going down swinging.
Kentavious Caldwell Pope over 1.5 3-points (+110, Bet365)
Caldwell-Pope is another player in need of a bounce back. He hit two 3s in Game 4 (finally) after struggling for the past few games. KCP is someone who will need to hit some big shots with the Heat so focussed on Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray pick-and-roll.
KCP is averaging two 3s per game at home in the playoffs and shooting 41% in those matchups. Why we want KCP instead of Aaron Gordon or Michael Porter Jr. is what we’ve seen from Michael Malone’s rotations. Porter’s playing time has been reduced significantly and Gordon’s shot volume is too inconsistent from deep to expect him to reach the level he did in Game 4. It’s also encouraging that just over 60% of all KCP’s shots come from 3-point range.
