NBA Finals Best Bets | Celtics vs Mavericks Game 5 Picks (Monday, June 17)
(Photos: Getty Images) Pictured: Jaylen Brown (left) and Luka Doncic (right).
Game 5 of the NBA Finals tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET in Boston on Monday. The Dallas Mavericks dominated the Boston Celtics in Game 4 to avoid the sweep, but Boston will have another chance in Game 5 to close out the series at home and win its first title since 2008. The Celtics are 6.5-point favorites over the Mavericks on Monday, with the total set at 209.5.
Our Action Network staff has locked in on 10 NBA Finals best bets, including picks against the spread, over/under predictions and numerous player prop picks.
Read below for our Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 5 picks on Monday, June 17.
NBA Finals Game 5 Best Bets
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mavericks vs. Celtics
By Joe Dellera
This line is way too high for Jaylen Brown, who is shooting just 33% from deep this postseason.
Brown has averaged 1.9 3s per game on 5.6 attempts during the playoffs. That’s simply not his game. Brown is at his best when he’s attacking the rack and getting into the teeth of the defense. He is not known to be a prolific 3-point shooter. During this series, he’s gone 2/6, 1/5, 2/9 and 1/5 from 3.
Despite taking ~40% of his shots from 3, there isn’t enough volume for an average shooter. If Brown shoots 33% on those average attempts, he’d be at just 2.08 3s per game — and even if we give him his career average of 36%, that’s just 2.27.
Brown has exceeded this line in just 5-of-22 playoff games this season and is 0-of-4 vs Dallas.
Brown can still have a strong game and impact winning without making 3s.
Pick: Jaylen Brown Under 2.5 3s (-175)
If you agree with my market read/prediction here and want to tail, I still want to first advise this be a small bet. We are in the home stretch of the NBA Finals, the lines are so sharp, consensus is reached and there is not much closing line value to be gained on any line right now.
Despite the Unders hitting in all four games, there has been a day of game late steam toward the Over. It is actually a sharp Over market with results simply not panning out for some of the smartest bettors and market movers. I do expect the Over to climb yet again, perhaps to 210.5 at tip.
From a basketball perspective, Jason Kidd has emphasized pace the last two games, and the Celtics launch and make 3s like no other team in the NBA. I have taken the Over at the best number every game — and I've gotten swept — but the process of tracking line movement is a proven and very profitable strategy, so I'll back my nearly +100u season more than my 0-4 in NBA Finals totals sample size.
Pick: Over 209.5 (-108)
By Maltman
Both these teams have come out firing in every game this series. In each game, we have seen three total shots taken in the first minute, and an additional two shots taken just outside the one-minute mark. In Game 4, both teams started out slow and no points were scored. But in Games 1-3, there were eight, six and seven points scored in the first minute.
From a math perspective, these teams have a true shooting percentage of 56% and 54% in the series (56% means scoring 1.12 points per shot). Using these percentages, they have about a 16.7% chance of hitting each one of those three shots in the first three minutes and scoring 6+ points.
I think both teams come out aggressive again and look to score fast with their best stuff. These teams have been aggressive early, so let’s see if they can keep it up. I'm betting .2u on 6+ points in the first minute at +580 on FanDuel (would bet down to +500).
Pick: 6+ Points Scored in the First Minute (+580)
By Matt Moore
Dante Exum looked good in his spare minutes in Game 3 and then…. just didn't play again. Jason Kidd said before Game 4 he "had to find a way to get him on the floor" as if "tell him to go into the game he's coaching" is some massive puzzle he has to decipher. Still, Exum had five points in the first half. He provides an option who can dribble, shoot from deep and pass. He was unplayable vs. the various opponents earlier but he's a good counter to how Boston defends.
He'll play more in this game; I'm not expecting Kidd to shorten his rotation just when opening it up has helped get them a win. I don't mind playing alts on these, including 10+ points +1100 at BetMGM.
Pick: Dante Exum Over 2.5 Points | Over 4.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
With their backs against the wall, facing a sweep, the Mavericks came out swinging in Game 4, embarrassing the Celtics in historic fashion. The Mavs have now outscored the Celtics in the series, but there’s no question in my mind that the Celtics have been the better team, even without Kristaps Porziņģis (lower leg).
There were some legitimate changes from the Mavericks that resulted in the win. Dallas made more of a concerted effort to chase Boston off the 3-point line and more defensive effort overall, specifically from Luka Dončić, who fouled out of Game 3. But still, the Celtics gave lackluster effort offensively which resulted in a more lopsided victory than just the defensive changes can account for.
My model shows value on the Celtics in Game 5 down to -7 but I also have a Bet Labs trend that fits this spot. Home favorites off a double-digit road loss are 134-102-5 ATS since 2005 (10.5% ROI) and 75-46-1 if we exclude Round 1 and the Play-In Tournament (21.2% ROI). Although it should be noted this trend is just 6-6 in the Finals.
Still, I think the Celtics close out on their home floor after an intensity lapse in Game 4.
Pick: Celtics -6.5 (-112)
Al Horford cleared this in Games 1 and 3, where he logged 30 and 37 minutes, respectively. The first with a healthy Kristaps Porziņģis, the second one without.
So this isn't a play simply because of Porziņģis's questionable tag.
Horford has cleared this in seven of his last nine games. Dallas had 34 turnovers in the first three games of the Finals, but just eight last game in what appears to be the biggest outlier in terms of the overall game, not necessarily the result — though some would argue that, too.
And with smalls wanting Horford on switches, it means he'll have an opportunity to get the blocks required — that and help defense. He's had active hands, is in plenty of actions defensively and will log big minutes unless this is a blowout.
Pick: Al Horford Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks (-130)
I like this as a buy-low spot.
P.J. Washington cleared this in Games 1-3. Maybe he should've in Game 4, but he was limited to 14 minutes, which is an outlier because of how badly they whooped on Boston.
Washington has no other game with lower than 25 minutes in the playoffs. He has also gone over 11.5 points in 11-of-21 of them.
Last game was an anomaly, and even if it wasn't, another version of it would have Washington playing more — perhaps much more — than 14 minutes.
I think he gets back on track in Game 5. He's still — even with six points in Game 4 — averaging 12.5 points per game on 43/35/75 shooting this series. That's not even amazing efficiency, but he's getting the volume because he consistency has to be option No. 3 for Dallas, for better or worse.
Pick: P.J. Washington Over 11.5 points (-125)
By Joe Dellera
We will continue to run this play whenever Kristaps Porziņģis misses time. The rotations change and Jayson Tatum generally plays the entire first quarter as opposed to eight or nine minutes.
These extra minutes resulted in him scoring at a higher clip, and he exceeded his 7.5 first quarter line in 14-of-17 games without Porziņģis when he plays the entire 12 minutes. He averages 11.2 first-quarter points in those games.
Tatum has now scored 13 and 11 in the first quarter this series without Porziņģis, and it is natural for him to have the ball in his hands to start the game, as he can operate as a primarily facilitator. If he wants to grab his own shots as he tries to strengthen any Finals MVP case he has, that certainly doesn’t hurt this cap either.
I like Tatum to start strong here.
Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 7.5 1Q Points (+114)
By Joe Dellera
Dončić has been tremendous to start these last few games, and with Dallas once again facing elimination, I expect him to see a significant offensive load.
Dončić has scored 13 points in three consecutive first quarters and he continues to get that pain-killing shot prior to each game. That shot has kept him fresh to start these games and now they have a bit of extra rest compared to just the one day off between Games 3 and 4.
Dončić has played 10+ minutes in the last two first quarters and given the win-or-go home nature of this game, I expect that to continue. When Dončić has played 10+ first-quarter minutes in the playoffs, he has exceeded 9.5 1Q points in 8-of-11.
Back Dončić to start this elimination game off hot.
Pick: Luka Dončić Over 9.5 1Q Points
By Joe Dellera
This prop is disgusting. 1.5 RA on a role player, but that role player was praised by Jason Kidd saying that he needs to keep up the good work.
Dallas has been searching for consistency from its role players and Dante Exum’s frame is useful on both offense and defense. He can take the ball up the court a bit and he is not a cone on defense, which is invaluable when playing with Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving.
Exum played 13 minutes last game and the important thing is just four of those came in the fourth quarter after all the starters and main rotation players were pulled for both teams.
When Exum has played between 10-15 minutes in the playoffs, he is 5-for-5 on the 1.5 RA line while averaging 2.6 rebound chances and 3.2 potential assists. But that sample size is a bit small. On the full season, he is 13-for-13 and averages 3.2 RA in those games.
While he may not have an extremely high ceiling for minutes, he is a malleable player for the Mavericks, which should give him a solid floor. I’ll grab Exum to exceed 1.5 RA.
Pick: Dante Exum Over 1.5 Rebounds + Assists
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