It's finally time for the NBA Finals! The Boston Celtics are hosting the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1. The stakes are obvious, so let's not waste any time and get right into our NBA Finals best bets, which include picks against the spread, over/under predictions and numerous player prop picks.
Read below for our Mavericks vs. Celtics Game 1 picks on Thursday, June 6.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mavericks vs. Celtics
By Joe Dellera
Jrue Holiday may have the toughest defensive assignment of the series if he’s tasked with guarding Luka Doncic. However, that'll likely result in a number of possessions in which Doncic guards Holiday on the other end.
Boston will look to put Doncic in action and Holiday’s vision — both in transition and as a pick-and-roll ball handler — will pay dividends.
In two regular-season matchups against Dallas, Holiday logged six and seven dimes. In the postseason, he's averaged 4.6 assists on 7.9 potentials per game.
In a Game 1, we should expect Holiday to continue being an anchor on both sides of the floor for the Celtics. Additionally, 33 minutes is the fewest he's played in any game this postseason. And when he's played 33 minutes this season, he has averaged five assists per game and exceeded this line in 58% of games.
I’ll grab Holiday Over 4.5 assists in Game 1.
Pick: Jrue Holiday Over 4.5 Assists (-122)
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Mavericks vs. Celtics
By Braxton Reynolds
Dallas does an excellent job of protecting the paint, but is vulnerable to stretch-fives, especially on pick-and-pops. Kristaps Porzingis averaged 5.1 attempts per game from 3-point territory this season and knocked them down at a 37.5% rate. Daniel Gafford's minutes will be especially exploitable for Porzingis.
In their only matchup after the trade deadline, the Celtics' center went 4-for-8 from deep, and I expect around six or eight attempts in Game 1.
Shooting rust and poor conditioning are concerns, but it's a risk worth taking based on how great this matchup is for Porzingis.
I would play these lines down to -160 and +180, respectively.
Pick: Kristaps Porzingis Over 1.5 3PM (-155), 3+ 3PM (+200)
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Mavericks vs. Celtics
I previously wrote that the offense won't be — or at least shouldn't be — easy to come by for Kyrie Irving in this series. So the points will be tricky, though I wouldn't be surprised if we see Irving blow up for 30 or more once or twice.
But on the assists front, I'm generally more optimistic about his outlook.
I like Irving to go Over 4.5 for Game 1 and Over 4.5 for the series. I think the on-ball pressure from Boston, Derrick White especially, could force Irving to be more of a playmaker. And for as improvisational as Dallas is, that might not be a bad thing as long as the Mavericks hit their open 3s, which they've repeatedly been able to generate in the playoffs.
Pick: Kyrie Irving Over 4.5 Assists (-105)
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Mavericks vs. Celtics
This is a tough series to gauge in terms of who'll eat most on the glass, but I think Dereck Lively is a name to monitor.
The series leader may come down to a battle between Jayson Tatum and Luka Doncic, not the traditional bigs on either side. That said, Lively could be an effective rebounder in the series. Now, there's likely going to be an effort from Boston to get Lively away from the rim defensively, but the match-ups are difficult to project.
Lively was also active on the glass against Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid. He had 7.8 rebounds per game in the Western Conference Finals. I like him to go Over 6.5 in Game 1 and think he gets to 10+ at least once this series.
Pick: Derek Lively Over 6.5 Rebounds (-150)
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Mavericks vs. Celtics
A lot has been made about Derrick White's match-up against Dallas and his 3-point shooting. To me, this is more about White in the playoffs.
And well, he's been great this year.
In 14 playoff games, he has had eight or more 3-point attempts 11 times, so the volume is there. He has hit over 2.5 3s eight times this postseason, and I think that volume will remain.
It wouldn't surprise me if we see a collective record of 3-point attempts in a NBA Finals game in this series, and guys like White will benefit from that, as could his 3-point shooting props until they inevitably adjust.
Pick: Derrick White Over 2.5 Made 3s (-135)
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Mavericks vs. Celtics
There are a few historical reasons to like this spot for Boston, in addition to the pure 2024 basketball reasons. Home teams in Game 1 of the NBA Finals are 15-3 ATS, and favorites are 16-3 (the missing game is from the Bubble season on a neutral court), going back to 2005, per Bet Labs.
In fact, the last team to spoil that Game 1 trend was none other than the 2022 Boston Celtics, when they played the Golden State Warriors. When the spread is -5.5 or greater, the favorite is 10-1 ATS.
Looking at these teams specifically, I like what Boston can throw at Dallas defensively. The Celtics have a rare combination of size and length to throw at Luka Doncic on the defensive end — something the No. 1 defense Minnesota Timberwolves struggled with in the Western Conference Finals. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Derrick White are all capable defenders and can limit Doncic as much as anyone. Jrue Holiday, White and Brown also have the lateral quickness and perimeter savvy to give problems to Kyrie Irving.
Boston can switch 1-4 on Irving and 2-5 on Doncic with relative ease. With Kristaps Porzingis ready to go for Game 1, the Celtics have a versatile big man who can challenge Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford.
The Celtics have been the best team in the league all season, and while I think this could be a competitive series, we won’t see that until at least Game 2. Expect Boston to dominate Game 1 and cover as so many favorites have in the past.
Pick: Celtics -6.5 (-102)
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Mavericks vs. Celtics
In general, this is shaping up to be an over series given the offensive firepower of both teams. Both Dallas and Boston are excellent defensively, but the defense — on both sides — has slipped somewhat in the past five games with both teams sporting a 120+ Defensive Rating over that span.
I expect a better showing than that, but both teams have been winning with offense. And the offenses for both teams have been the most impressive units on the floor throughout the playoffs. The Celtics have the second-best Offensive Rating of the postseason (119.6), but are even more potent at home (121.7), where they’re 6-2 to the over.
The Mavericks' offense is in its better split on the road (115.1) and they get those points by pushing the pace (94 on the road). Expect points in this series, but especially Game 1. I like this total up to 216.5.
Pick: Over 214.5 (-110)
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Mavericks vs. Celtics
By Maltman
I'm always a fan of looking at new markets, and this one has definite value.
Kristaps Porzingis is returning to the lineup, which means more minutes from better 3-point shooters, and probably no minutes for the Celtics who can't shoot (like Luke Kornet). The Mavericks have also allowed a lot of 3s in the playoffs and will likely leave shooters open in order to protect the paint, something they've done in other series.
Meanwhile, the Celtics have hit five-or-more 1st quarter 3s in seven of their 14 playoff games this year. During the regular season, they hit five-or-more 3s in the first quarter 52% of the time. That rate was actually a little lower with all five of their main starters (45%), but that's still a lot of value on +210.
I also like six-or-more 3s in the first quarter at +500. Boston has done that in three of 14 playoff games (21%) and also did so in 29% of their regular-season games.
Teams often are jittery in Game 1, but the Celtics have come out firing in all three series so far. I expect them to be hyper aggressive from 3 early, which makes this is a clear must bet. I'm betting a half unit on the Celtics to hit at least five 3s in the first quarter at +210 and would bet that down to +150. I'm also betting .2 units on six-or-more 3s at +500 and would bet that down to +400.
Pick: Celtics to Make 5+ 3s in 1st Quarter (+210)
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Mavericks vs. Celtics
By Maltman
This line feels way too low. The series-long odds of P.J. Washington scoring 10+ in every game, which range from +250 to +350, seem to also support this notion.
Washington is expected to score more.
He has has topped this mark in six of his past 10 games, and in his past eight games against the Celtics. Whoever is guarding Washingtom will likely leave him to contain Luka Doncic, leaving Washington open for 3s and other easy buckets.
Pick: P.J. Washington Over 11.5 Points (-102)
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Mavericks vs. Celtics
By Chris Baker
I think the Celtics lack defenders who can completely shut down Luka Doncic, but they do have two defenders — Derrick White and Jrue Holiday — who can contain Kyrie Irving.
I expect the Celtics to prioritize keeping one defender on the ball and switching a lot of screens early in the series. The Celtics have been a heavy switching team all season and that should continue here as they make a concerted effort to limit easy 3s and lob dunks to Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively. Maybe, that scheme will change later in the series if Doncic can punish Boston efficiently enough to justify hedging or doubling out of pick-and-roll coverages, but early in the series, I expect Doncic to see a lot of one-on-one matchups. And that's usually a recipe for points.
Doncic is averaging 28.8 points per game in the playoffs, but was dealing with injuries in the first two rounds and also had to face a Thunder defense that loaded up in the paint to prevent his drives. In both games against the Celtics this season, Doncic exceeded a 42% usage rate and attempted at least 25 shots. While projecting a slight minutes increase due to this being the NBA Finals, I expect Doncic to average closer to 35 points in this series. Trust him to go Over 31.5 points in Game 1.
Pick: Luka Doncic Over 31.5 Points (-110)
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Mavericks vs. Celtics
By Joe Dellera
There’s much subterfuge regarding Kristaps Porzingis' health status for Game 1 of the NBA Finals, but given the rest he’s had throughout most of the playoffs and the Celtics removing him from the injury report, he seems good to go.
Porzingis has thrived in this specific matchup against Dallas’ drop with Daniel Gafford at the 5. When these teams played back in March, Porzingis hit a trio of 3s in the first quarter and sent Gafford to the bench. Here, his first quarter points prop is just 3.5 and I think we should grab that and some alts — 7+ (+350 Bet365) and 10+ (+1200).
Porzingis hasn't played fewer than six mins in the first quarter this season. I don’t expect him to play 12, but we should see 6-8 minutes of Porzingis. In that time frame, he’s cleared 3.5 points in 67% of first quarters, while averaging 5.5. If we expand this to 6-10 minutes it’s a 75% hit rate on 5.9 points. He’d have 7+ points in 42% and 10+ in 17%, which still gives us a bit of value just from a numbers perspective.
This is a matchup Boston should look to exploit early and often in an effort to force Dallas to make the first adjustment.
Pick: Kristaps Porzingis Over 3.5 1st Quarter Points (-112)
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