You need four wins to complete a series, but the performance the Los Angeles Lakers put on in Game 1 against the Miami Heat felt like it counted for more than just one win.
The bad news turned worse for the Heat, who have injury issues to sort out with two of their starters likely out for Friday's matchup. Joe Dellera went into greater detail on this in our Game 2 betting guide, which you can read here.
So, where’s the value for Game 2? Our staff is here to break down their favorite NBA bets for tonight’s NBA Finals matchup:
- 9 p.m. ET: Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Friday NBA Finals Betting Picks
Odds as of Friday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Malik Smith: Heat vs. Lakers
| Heat odds | +9 [BET NOW] |
| Lakers odds | -9 [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | +360/-455 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 216 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Remember when the Lakers first arrived at the Bubble months ago and everyone was worried about their offense? That feels like a distant memory now. In the postseason, the Lakers have posted the second-best Offensive Rating (115.7) of all playoff teams.
But the first half is where this team truly shines: they've scored 122.1 points per 100 possessions in the first half this postseason. They've topped 60 points in the first half of 10 of their 16 playoff games, including Game 1 against the Heat.
According to our Bet Labs database, the over has gone 11-5 in the first half of the Lakers' playoff games and has hit in nine of their past 11 games:
Add in the injuries currently plaguing the Heat and I think we see more early dominance from LA in Game 2. FanDuel currently has the best number by a half point, so I'll take Over 111 in the first half.
The Pick: Over 111 1H Total (-110)
[Bet the first half over at FanDuel completely risk-free for $1,000]
Raheem Palmer: Heat vs. Lakers
With the injuries to Dragic and Adebayo, this series is all but over. Still, you can’t expect the Heat to stop fighting. Although I’m not particularly interested in the side or total, I believe there’s still some value on the board.
With the absence of Adebayo you have to expect the Heat to go small and spread the floor even more than they do now. Butler, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson are clearly the top options on this Heat team offensively with opponents frequently allowing open jumpers to Jae Crowder. He’s leading the team with 8.1 3-point attempts per game in the playoffs, making 35.7% of his attempts.
In Game 1, Crowder shot 4-for-7 from behind the arc in just 24 minutes. We should expect him to play more minutes in a pivotal Game 2. I’ve been playing this prop quite frequently during these playoffs and I see no reason to stop now. I like the over 2.5 made 3s for Jae Crowder.
The Pick: Crowder Over 2.5 Made 3s (-132)
[Bet Jae Crowder at FanDuel completely risk-free for $1,000]
Brandon Anderson: Heat vs. Lakers
Listen. This is over. It’s a wrap. We’re done here.
It’s not because the Lakers blew the Heat off the court in Game 1. For eight minutes, the Heat looked fantastic on both ends of the court. I liked the way they were occasionally doubling on defense and the offense was getting into things quickly to set up good looks. Then the Lakers went “small,” which was always the looming adjustment, starting hitting every three, and blew them off the court.
As someone who thought the Heat had a real shot at this series, it was a discouraging first half — but I also bet Miami just before the half when they were down 12. Nothing I saw made me feel like this was a wrap in any way.
Then Butler turned his ankle seconds before halftime. And Dragic didn’t come back out for the second half. And Adebayo hurt that left arm again.
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Dragic and Adebayo are doubtful for Game 2, and I’d be shocked if we see Dragic at all again. Just on that news alone, I thought this series might be a wrap. With Adebayo out at least one more game, the Lakers coast to a 2-0 lead and we either get no Adebayo or a half-strength version of him in Game 3, and the Heat just aren’t deep enough for that.
Did you see how Miami’s offense fell apart without Dragic’s penetration and control? Did you see how their defense detonated without Adebayo?
Maybe the Heat have one more emotional push to keep one game close, but LeBron smells blood now and he’s getting that ring. I’m playing the sweep at +EV, and good on Miami if they prove otherwise. I’ll play to -120, but I'm grabbing these odds before any more bad injury news comes out.
The Pick: Lakers win series in 4 games (+130)
[Bet the Lakers at BetMGM and get a $500 INSTANT deposit match]
