NBA Finals Betting Trends: Does the Long Layoff Favor the Celtics or Mavericks?
(Photos: Getty Images) Pictured (left to right): Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
The NBA Finals starts June 6, which means both the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks will have a full week to prepare before the showdown.
Historically, what do the layoffs mean for not only Game 1 but the series result itself, including what the precedence is for both teams having a week to prepare?
We will be looking at a data set over the last 50 years of the NBA Finals (dating back to 1973-74).
Here are the series in which both teams entered Game 1 on at least seven days rest. The Warriors won both previous series.
- 2024: Celtics and Mavericks
- 2017: Warriors and Cavaliers
- 2015: Cavaliers and Warriors
Overall, there have been 15 NBA Finals series in the last 50 years in which one of the teams had at least nine days or more to prepare for Game 1 — 14 of those 15 series had a gap of at least three days difference in rest, which we have currently in 2024.
In those previous 13 series, the team with more rest is only 7-6 straight up and 6-7 against the spread. But let's dive in a little further to get some context.
The Celtics have a three-day rest gap, they are home in Game 1 as favorites and they are "big" favorites to win the series against the Mavericks. Here are the five other teams that fit that same profile.
- 2024 Celtics
- 2023 Nuggets — Won & covered G1. Won series 4-1.
- 2017 Warriors — Won & covered G1. Won series 4-1.
- 2001 Lakers — Lost G1. Won series 4-1.
- 1999 Spurs — Won & covered G1. Won series 4-1.
- 1996 Bulls — Won & covered G1. Won series 4-2.
The ultimate rest situation for a team would be having the 3+ days rest and being able to play at home for Game 1. The Celtics would be the seventh team to have that advantage in the last 50 years.
- 2024 Celtics
- 2023 Nuggets — Won & covered G1. Won series 4-1.
- 2017 Warriors — Won & covered G1. Won series 4-1.
- 2001 Lakers — Lost G1. Won series 4-1.
- 1999 Spurs — Won & covered G1. Won series 4-1.
- 1998 Jazz — Won, didn't cover G1. Lost series 4-2.
- 1996 Bulls — Won & covered G1. Won series 4-2.
Looking at both the Celtics and Mavericks, they have a combined 17 days off before Game 1 of the Finals — if you include the day after the close and Game 1 day itself.
Most combined days off before Game 1 of Finals:
- 17 in 2024
- 17 in 2017 — GSW over CLE 4-1. Favorite wins series & wins/covers G1 at home.
- 17 in 2015 — GSW over CLE 4-2. Favorite wins series & wins/covers G1 at home.
- 17 in 2003 — SAS over NJN 4-2. Favorite wins series & wins/covers G1 at home.
- 16 in 1982 — LAL over PHI 4-2. Favorite wins series & wins/covers G1 on road.
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