NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Andrew Wiggins
| Prop | Brown (16-1, 11-1) | Tatum (24-1) | Wiggins (34-1) |
| Matchup | Celtics vs. Warriors |
| Time | 9 p.m. ET |
| Book | FanDuel |
Game 3 of the NBA finals moves to Boston where the Celtics will host the Warriors on Wednesday night. Robert Williams (60% opening-tip win rate) will take on Kevon Looney (33% opening-tip win rate) in the opening tip-off.
Williams has won 3-of-4 tip-offs versus Looney this season, so Boston should have a solid advantage on the tip-off. Williams was limited in Game 2 of the series to 14 minutes and is questionable. If he doesn’t start, Al Horford should still control the tip (63% opening-tip win rate).
Boston is first in the league at scoring first, scoring first 64% of the time while Golden State is below league average and scores first 39% of the time. Boston has been twice as successful as Golden State has at scoring first in the playoffs. That said, Boston has won the tip in both games in the finals, but Golden State has scored first both times. In Game 1, Jayson Tatum had a few chances and missed, and in Game 2, Boston turned the ball over.
I’m still focusing on Boston for Game 3 but will sprinkle a play on Golden State given the last two game results. Both teams have heavily relied on the 3-point method for first baskets versus each other. Jaylen Brown and Tatum exact method – 3-point basket are my favorite plays for Wednesday. I'm also adding Jaylen Brown exact method – Other and Andrew Wiggins exact method – 3-point basket. I may look to add another play closer to game time.
As for reasoning, Wiggins has shot first in eight of last 13 games for Golden State, with six of those being 3-point attempts. Brown was the leader in first baskets during the regular season and has scored the first team points for Boston in six of 20 playoff games. Tatum has scored the first team points for Boston in five of 20 playoff games.
Picks:
- Jaylen Brown Exact Method: 3-pointer (+1600, Risk 0.4 units, play to +1300)
- Jaylen Brown Exact Method: Other (+1100, Risk 0.4 units, play to +1000)
- Jayson Tatum Exact Method: 3-pointer (+2400, Risk 0.3 units, play to +1800)
- Andrew Wiggins Exact Method: 3-pointer (+3400, Risk 0.3 units, play to +2700)
Celtics vs. Warriors Game 3 First Basket Data
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