If you haven't heard, the two-time defending champion Warriors are down 2-1 in the NBA Finals to the Raptors.
How have teams historically performed in the playoffs in this spot? Has the betting market underrated these highly-motivated teams? Do home teams do better in this spot?
Let's dive into Bet Labs and take a look.
Teams Down 2-1 in Game 4, Full-Game Spread
Since 2004, these teams have gone 85-71-5 (54.5%) against the spread (ATS), good for a 6.4% Return on Investment.
Over the past two seasons, however, those teams have gone just 10-10. Since 2014, though, they've gone 30-18 ATS. Home teams have done better, returning a 8.2% ROI historically, although home favorites have gone just 26-25-2 ATS historically, losing bettors money.
What about the moneyline? Is there more value just betting these teams straight-up?
Teams Down 2-1 in Game 4, Full-Game Moneyline
Overall, these teams have gone 88-73 (54.7%) straight up, profiting bettors $2,136 on $100 per bet since 2004.
Again, over the past two seasons they've gone just 10-10, but since 2014 they've gone 30-18 for a 30.5% ROI. Home teams have done much better, going 60-44 for a 18.0% ROI, although, again, home favorites have lost bettors money, producing a -3.5% ROI despite a 60.4% win rate.
Not a whole lot of value in recent years, especially for home favorites. What about in the first half, though — do those teams come out motivated right away?
Teams Down 2-1 in Game 4, First-Half Spread
They have, going 92-64-5 (59.0%) ATS, good for a 13.8% ROI.
And unlike the full-game trends, they've been profitable recently, going 12-8 the past two seasons and 31-16-1 (27.4% ROI) over the last five postseasons.
Further, favorites have actually done better in this spot (43-29-2 ATS), as have home teams (62-38-4 ATS). Home favorites have gone 31-20-2 historically, good for a 16.5% ROI. They've gone 3-1 in the last two years in a small sample and 8-4-1 over the last four seasons.
And finally, what about the first-half moneyline?
Teams Down 2-1 in Game 4, First-Half Moneyline
There's only data in Bet Labs for first-half moneyline trends since 2011, but the ROI here isn't too shabby:
Overall, these teams have gone 42-25-6 (62.7%) straight up, profiting bettors $2,089. They've gone a more mediocre 10-9-1 this season and last, but 24-13-4 over the past four seasons.
Favorites since 2011 have gone 23-6-3, while home teams have gone 26-15-3. Home favorites, like the Warriors, have gone an impressive 15-3-2 (83.3%) straight up historically, good for a 34.3% ROI.
Takeaways
While there historically has not been value on home favorites down 2-1 in Game 4 on the full-game spread and moneyline, especially in recent years, there has been on those teams specifically in the first half.
