Dallas avoided the always embarrassing sweep by decimating Boston in Game 4.
However, the Mavericks are still down 3-1 in the series, and only the 2016 Cavaliers have ever come back from this deficit.
Can Dallas survive another round in the ring with Boston?
Check out my NBA Finals player props and two-leg same game parlay (SGP) for Game 5 between the Mavericks and Celtics on Monday, June 17.
NBA Finals Game 5 Same Game Parlay: Celtics vs Mavericks
- Dereck Lively II 10+ Rebounds (+130)
- Derrick White 3+ Made 3-Pointers (-225)
Parlay Odds: +218 (DraftKings)
Dereck Lively II 10+ Rebounds (+130)
Daniel Gafford is not built to withstand Boston’s outside shooting and all-around role versatility.
With him on the court in this series, Dallas has surrendered 119.7 points per 100 possessions (via NBA.com). That’s by far the worst mark of any rotation player for either team.
Dallas recognized this reality and slashed his minutes in Games 3 and 4, which meant more minutes for rookie Dereck Lively II.
Over the past two games, Lively has notched 25 rebounds on a monstrous 43 rebound chances. His length is giving Boston fits on the boards, especially on the offensive glass.
I expect the rookie to clear 30 minutes in Game 5, thus giving him enough volume to crack double digits again.
Derrick White 3+ Made 3-Pointers (-225)
Through four games, White is averaging 8.8 attempts per game from 3-point range, and he’s knocked down at least three triples in 3-of-4 games.
Boston’s offense has definitely benefited White, who leads all players in this series with 4.5 wide-open 3-point attempts per game. He’s shooting just 33% on those looks, so positive efficiency regression will eventually occur and boost his total made 3s.
White’s defense and playmaking mean his minutes are highly insulated too should he struggle with his shot early.
In other words, it would be shocking if he didn't record around 38 minutes, assuming the game is not a blowout.
These two legs form a +218 same-game parlay on DraftKings, which owns a 31.45% implied probability. In other words, that’s the hit-rate that this parlay needs for the bet to theoretically be profitable in the long-run.
