Game 1 of the NBA Finals was rough on the Miami Heat. After the Heat took an early 13-point lead in the first quarter, they were outscored 104-73 by the Los Angeles Lakers the rest of the way.
Even worse, the Heat may be down their second- and third-leading postseason scorers in Goran Dragic (19.9 points per game in the playoffs) and Bam Adebayo (17.8 ppg).
When lines for Game 2 opened at PointsBet, the Heat were 7-point underdogs — they closed at +4.5 before the start of Game 1 — and that was before Dragic's injury status was known. According to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, Dragic suffered a plantar tear in his left foot. Adebayo was initially diagnosed with a strained shoulder, but the Heat are now saying he has a neck strain.
On Thursday afternoon, Adebayo and Dragic were downgraded from questionable to doubtful, per our NBA Insiders Tool. The line for Game 2 immediately moved to -9.5 for the Lakers at that point.
Our Power Ratings have the Lakers as 9-point favorites and project Adebayo and Dragic as worth 5.8 points to the spread collectively.
It's hard to tease out exactly the number for each because the drop-off is somewhat compounding and their rotations will fundamentally change with two key guys out.
Adebayo is worth about three points in a vacuum, but with below-average depth like Solomon Hill to replace him, plus the compounding effects of Dragic being out, his value is likely even more than that to this game.
Whether bettors should follow the line move and pile onto the Lakers, or take the contrarian value and buy back the Heat remains to be seen. Be sure to check with our new NBA PRO Report from now until tip off to determine the biggest edges for Game 2 of the NBA Finals.
