Joel Embiid is not done. And that has huge ramifications for the Eastern Conference title picture — and how bettors should approach it.
There's no timeline for the reigning MVP to return to action, and his recovery may mean that he never makes it. But the decision for Embiid to return will be based solely on his health and not on where the Sixers appear in the standings. From ESPN on his intention to play by the end of the regular season, if he's healthy:
"That's the plan," Embiid said after Philadelphia practiced Thursday ahead of a game at home against the Charlotte Hornets on Friday night. "Obviously everything has to go right, as far as getting healthy and being as close as I'm supposed to be, but yeah, that's the plan."
Embiid suffered a torn meniscus in the Sixers' loss to the Warriors on January 30th and was expected to be re-evaluated in four weeks, which should be any day. That doesn't mean he'll be cleared for basketball activities, let alone practice, anytime soon. But there is a strong possibility he will make it back before the end of the season.
Which means it's time to start betting Sixers futures.
You should consider the possibility that Embiid doesn't return in any plays you make, but this is a unique situation to get an extremely advantageous position on a team that will profile — if healthy — as a completely different team than it is currently priced.
For example, a few of the thresholds I think matter for determining title contenders are seeding and the 40-20 rule. The 40-20 rule was established by Phil Jackson, who said you needed to win 40 games before losing 20 to be considered "legit contenders." Only three teams in an 82-game season have failed to hit 40 wins before 20 losses and won the title: the 1995 Rockets, the 2004 Pistons and the 2006 Heat.
The Sixers obviously did not hit 4o wins before 20 losses after Embiid went down. But when Embiid suffered the injury, the Sixers were 29-17 and 26-8 when he played. There was a pretty good chance they would have cleared that mark.
The seeding rule is that only two teams in NBA history have won the title with a seed lower than third, and only five teams have made the NBA Finals in the past 25 years with a seed lower than third.
Had Embiid stayed healthy, even if he had missed too many games to qualify for MVP, Philadelphia would have finished with top-three seed. They 76ers were pretty easily the second-best team in the East behind the Celtics.
But because of both where they are in the standings and Embiid's injury, they are currently priced at +3800 to win the title at FanDuel.
If Embiid returns, the Sixers instantly become the same team they were when he went down, with Kyle Lowry added for depth. They project as a team entirely different from their record and seeding the moment Embiid comes back on the floor.
Now, Embiid coming back 100% is impossible. He'll be closer to 70% than 100%, which has to be factored. Also, Embiid's had a messy history in the playoffs between random injuries (a concussion and facial fracture, a meniscus tear and a ligament tear in his thumb) and pretty substantial failures in scoring and defense.
But a major difference this season is both the most well-balanced roster the Sixers have had in the Embiid era and Nick Nurse, the best coach Philadelphia has had in the Embiid era. Nurse fundamentally flips a lot of matchups. Under Brett Brown and Doc Rivers, the Sixers were at a coaching disadvantage in most matchups. Now, they have the second-best playoff coach in the Eastern Conference behind Erik Spoelstra.
Say the Sixers can get Embiid back with enough time to secure the six-seed and avoid the play-in. They will almost definitely face either the Cavaliers or Bucks. In a matchup against the Cavaliers, they will have the best player, arguably the third-best player in Tyrese Maxey behind Donovan Mitchell, and when Embiid was healthy, a better offense and defense, and a huge coaching advantage.
The Bucks are obviously tougher, but the Bucks' defense has been shaky, and guess who's coaching the Bucks? Doc Rivers! Meanwhile, the Sixers have a lot of long defenders to layer the defense against Giannis Antetokounmpo. Their drop coverage will be in trouble vs. Damian Lillard, but the Bucks will be in trouble vs. Maxey. Brook Lopez' ability to defend in the post vs. Embiid doesn't matter much because Embiid will just constantly hit pick and pop mid-range shots over him.
That would be a tough series, but I'm not sure that, depending on how Embiid looks if he returns, I would have the Bucks favored in that matchup, even with home court.
And then the Sixers are potentially in a conference finals with the Celtics, their nemesis, who has had their number. But you're in a good position to hedge a bit there, and the Sixers have shown a better ability to match up with Boston (again, with Embiid healthy) than ever before.
Oh, and I'm just saying: the Sixers match up better than any team in the league with the reigning champion and West favorite Denver Nuggets.
You should not bet the Sixers if you're betting one team to win the NBA Finals or the Eastern Conference. But if you're into building long-shot portfolios to play against long-term, the Sixers have a lot of value with the prospect of Embiid returning. Maybe it doesn't happen, and this bet will be dead before the playoffs begin.
One final warning: the way this falls apart is if Embiid comes back, looks good, the Sixers is in a good spot, then somehow draw the Heat. But the odds of that, given the standings, are tough outside of a play-in matchup.
Other than that? The Sixers are a sleeping giant.
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